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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

FCA revises Renault merger offer in a bid to persuade French government

PARIS – Fiat Chrysler is discussing a Renault special dividend and stronger job guarantees in a bid to persuade the French government to back its proposed merger between the carmakers, sources close to the discussions said. The improved offer, if formalized and accepted, would also see the combined company's operations headquartered in France and the French state granted a seat on its board, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Sunday. FCA spokeswoman Shawn Morgan declined to comment. The French government, Renault's biggest shareholder with a 15 percent stake, also declined to comment. A Renault spokesman did not return calls and messages seeking comment. Italian-American FCA is engaged in intensive discussions with Renault and the French government over the $35 billion merger proposal it pitched last Monday to create the world's third-biggest carmaker. The concessions being discussed are not definitive and depend on other aspects of an emerging compromise deal, both sources cautioned. They nonetheless increase the chances that the merger plan will be approved by Renault's board, on which the French state has two seats. The board meets again on Tuesday. Some analysts and French industry leaders had voiced doubts about the 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) in claimed cost and investment savings, and whether the proposal represents a fair deal for Renault shareholders. A Renault dividend would improve the valuation in their favor, balancing a 2.5 billion euro proposed dividend to FCA shareholders. The sources did not elaborate on the potential size of a Renault payout. The merger plan presented on Monday would see the two carmakers acquired by a listed Dutch holding company whose ownership would be split equally between current FCA and Renault shareholders, after special dividend payments. FCA had proposed locating the combined group's operational head office in a neutral city, most likely London, but has now indicated readiness to base it in the greater Paris area, meeting a key French government demand, both sources said. The French government is also likely to be granted a seat on the board to reflect its 7.5 percent stake in the merged company, the people said. Nissan, whose matching 15 percent stake in its French alliance partner will also be diluted to 7.5 percent of the new group, receives a board seat under the plan unveiled on May 27.

Weekly Recap: FCA hit with record fine as NHTSA crackdown continues

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration slapped Fiat Chrysler Automobiles with a record fine this week that could reach $105 million. The punishment comes after NHTSA found problems with the automaker's execution of 23 recalls that affect more than 11 million vehicles. The consent agreement, announced Sunday, calls for FCA to pay a $70-million cash fine and requires the company to spend at least $20 million over a three-year period on industry outreach programs and to beef up old recall campaigns. Failure to comply will result in another $15-million fine. FCA also agreed to federal oversight, which includes an independent monitor to oversee the company's recalls. The $70-million cash fine equals a penalty NHTSA levied on Honda in January. "Fiat Chrysler's pattern of poor performance put millions of its customers and the driving public at risk," NHTSA administrator Mark Rosekind said in a statement. "This action will provide relief to owners of defective vehicles, will help improve recall performance throughout the auto industry, and gives Fiat Chrysler the opportunity to embrace a proactive safety culture." FCA called the deal a "consensual resolution," but admitted that it "failed to timely provide an effective remedy" during certain recalls. "We are intent on rebuilding our relationship with NHTSA and we embrace the role of public safety advocate," the company said in a statement. The announcement kicked off a busy week for the automaker. NHTSA agreed FCA did not need to recall 4.7 million vehicles after an investigation failed to find defects with a power module used in some Jeep, Dodge, and Ram vehicles. A Georgia judge also reduced a civil verdict involving a death in a Jeep Grand Cherokee crash. Amid all of that, the company reported net profit of about 333 million euros, or $364 million in the second quarter on Thursday. OTHER NEWS & NOTES FCA ramps up Hellcat production Despite a decidedly legal and financial week for FCA, there was still time for the performance side of the business to briefly grab the spotlight. The automaker is more than doubling its production of the Dodge Challenger and Charger SRT Hellcats in response to strong demand. The order bank opens the second week of August and production begins in September. FCA will finish up its scheduled 2015 model-year Hellcat builds, and cancel any "unscheduled" versions, though customers will get discounted pricing for 2016.