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May 2016: FCA wins, Ford and GM stumble on weak car volumes

The May 2016 sales numbers are in, and it looks as though FCA is getting some vindication for boldly cancelling two slow-selling car models. Meanwhile, Ford saw overall sales dip and GM's May volume took a big dive versus the same month in 2015. While Marchionne's decision to axe the Chrysler 200 and Dodge Dart has drawn criticism as being short-sighted, it's working for FCA so far. Although the Dart and 200 aren't out of production yet and no capacity has been shifted to crossover or trucks, May's numbers show that the emphasis on Jeep and Ram models makes sense right now. FCA's US sales rose 1 percent last month compared to May 2015, putting the year-to-date total at 955,186 vehicles, an increase of 6 percent compared to the same period last year. Standouts included the Jeep Renegade, Compass, and Patriot, and the Fiat 500X. Ram pickup sales were down 3 percent. And your fun fact is that Alfa Romeo sales were up precisely 10 percent, for a total of 44 4Cs sold versus 40 in the same month last year. At FoMoCo, the Ford brand took a hit to the tune of 6.4 percent from May 2015 to 2016, registering 226,190 sales last month. Lincoln showed improvement on its modest numbers, going from 9,174 to 9,807, a 6.9 percent increase. Overall, Ford was down 5.9 percent for the month to 235,997; despite the slump, year-to-date total Ford sales are up 4.2 percent to 1,112,939. Strong sellers included Escape, Expedition, F-Series, and Transit - big stuff. Most small and/or efficient models (Fiesta, Focus, Fusion, C-Max) saw sales slides. Fusion sales were also down, likely due to effects of model changeover to the freshened 2017 model. Ford has promised four new crossovers and SUVs by 2020 and if things keep trending this way the company will be able to sell them, but things could change in the next four years. GM saw the worst of it for domestic brands. Retail and fleet sales were down for each of the four divisions, with the May 2016 total dropping 18 percent to 240,450 vehicles. GM's year-to-date sales are down 5.0 percent in 2016 to 1,183,705. Both the Sierra and Silverado were down significantly, and the majority of Chevy, Buick, GMC, and Cadillac nameplates saw sales decreases, with both small cars and larger utilities included. Not even big stuff could help GM this month, it seems. We'll have more on the rest of the industry's May sales as those figures trickle in.

Pickup prices rising at 2x industry average

We've said it before, but bears repeating: Pickup trucks are the financial engines of America's automakers. Good thing, then, that the segment is in rude health - in fact, Automotive News is suggesting that pickup truck sales are arguably healthier than they were pre-recession, even though the segment's volume is still significantly down from where it was before the bottom fell out of the US economy. That's because per-unit profits on full-size trucks are skyrocketing, outpacing the industry's average price increases by more than double since 2005. According to data from Edmunds, the average transaction price of a full-size pickup is now $39,915 - a heady increase over the $31,059 average price in 2005 - a gain of over 8 percent after inflation is factored in.
Just how important are trucks to automakers' bottom lines? Automotive News quotes a Morgan Stanley analyst as saying the Ford F-Series is responsible for 90 percent of the company's 2012 profits, and General Motors isn't far behind, with the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra twins chipping in about two-thirds of the automaker's earnings.
Automotive News points out that Detroit's automakers now have the money to invest in modernizing their full-size truck offerings, in part because they don't have the same overhead and legacy costs that pushed General Motors and Chrysler into bankruptcy. Certainly, the pickup segment has seen a lot of innovations as of late, including turbocharged V6s, coil-spring rear suspensions and active aero. Those improvements in important areas like fuel economy and ride comfort have given existing pickup buyers new reasons to upgrade. In addition, automakers are piling on the tech and luxury goodies, creating more and more high-content, high-profit models like the Ford F-150 King Ranch, Ram 1500 Laramie Longhorn and Chevrolet Silverado High Country (shown).

FCA revises Renault merger offer in a bid to persuade French government

PARIS – Fiat Chrysler is discussing a Renault special dividend and stronger job guarantees in a bid to persuade the French government to back its proposed merger between the carmakers, sources close to the discussions said. The improved offer, if formalized and accepted, would also see the combined company's operations headquartered in France and the French state granted a seat on its board, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Sunday. FCA spokeswoman Shawn Morgan declined to comment. The French government, Renault's biggest shareholder with a 15 percent stake, also declined to comment. A Renault spokesman did not return calls and messages seeking comment. Italian-American FCA is engaged in intensive discussions with Renault and the French government over the $35 billion merger proposal it pitched last Monday to create the world's third-biggest carmaker. The concessions being discussed are not definitive and depend on other aspects of an emerging compromise deal, both sources cautioned. They nonetheless increase the chances that the merger plan will be approved by Renault's board, on which the French state has two seats. The board meets again on Tuesday. Some analysts and French industry leaders had voiced doubts about the 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) in claimed cost and investment savings, and whether the proposal represents a fair deal for Renault shareholders. A Renault dividend would improve the valuation in their favor, balancing a 2.5 billion euro proposed dividend to FCA shareholders. The sources did not elaborate on the potential size of a Renault payout. The merger plan presented on Monday would see the two carmakers acquired by a listed Dutch holding company whose ownership would be split equally between current FCA and Renault shareholders, after special dividend payments. FCA had proposed locating the combined group's operational head office in a neutral city, most likely London, but has now indicated readiness to base it in the greater Paris area, meeting a key French government demand, both sources said. The French government is also likely to be granted a seat on the board to reflect its 7.5 percent stake in the merged company, the people said. Nissan, whose matching 15 percent stake in its French alliance partner will also be diluted to 7.5 percent of the new group, receives a board seat under the plan unveiled on May 27.