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Bibendum 2014: Former EU President says Toyota could lose 100,000 euros per hydrogen FCV sedan

Pat Cox does not work for Toyota and we don't think he has any secret inside information. Still, he's the former President of the European Parliament and the current high level coordinator for TransEuropean Network, so when he says Toyota is likely going to lose between 50,000 and 100,000 euros ($66,000 and $133,000) on each of the hydrogen-powered FCV sedans it will sell next year, it's worth noting. That was just one highlight of Cox's presentation at the 2014 Michelin Challenge Bibendum in Chengdu, China today, which addressed the main problem of using more H2 in transportation: cost. The EU has a tremendous incentive to find an alternative to fossil fuels, since Europe today is 94 percent dependent on oil for its transportation sector and 84 percent of that 94 percent dependency is imported oil. The tab for that costs the EU a billion euros a day, Cox said, on top of the environmental costs. To encourage a shift away from petroleum, European Directive 2014/94 requires each member state to develop national policy frameworks for the market development of alternative fuels and their infrastructure. For the member states that choose to fulfill 2014/94 by developing a hydrogen market – and to be clear, Cox said, it's not an EU diktat that they do so, since a number of other alternatives are also allowed – the aim is to have things in place by the end of 2025. The plans don't even have to be submitted until the end of 2016. The long lead time is due to a quirk in a hydrogen economy. In hydrogen infrastructure, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the firstmover disadvantage." – Pat Cox In deploying a hydrogen infrastructure, Cox said, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the first-mover disadvantage, and high risk." That's why the EU and member states will financially support the early stages, but everyone agrees that "if this is to work, it will have to be ultimately and essentially a commercially viable and commercially driven infrastructure roll-out." Since 1986, European Union research programs have spent 550 million euros on hydrogen-related and fuel-cell-related research, including methods of hydrogen storage and distribution as well as improved fuel cells vehicles, Cox said. Expensive problems remain to be solved. At a conference in Berlin, Germany this past summer, Cox said, the unit cost of the refueling stations was identified as the main problem.

Toyota throwing water on fast-charging EVs

Toyota is undoubtedly committed to moving beyond the internal combustion engine for future automobiles. But, while the company embraces hybrids with boosted production, new models and in motorsports, the automaker is more standoffish when it comes to pure electric models. This is especially true as the Mirai hydrogen fuel cell sedan comes to market. In the mind of Mirai chief engineer Yoshikazu Tanaka, even fast-charging electric vehicles don't have much of a future because of their strain on the power grid. "If you were to charge a car in 12 minutes for a range of 500 km (310 miles), for example, you're probably using up electricity required to power 1,000 houses," he said to Reuters. Tanaka admitted that EVs have a place in the market, but it was for short drives during the day after being charged each night. As one of the people responsible for bringing the Mirai to the road, it shouldn't be too shocking that Tanaka puts his faith in hydrogen. He feels that H2 is the better choice for long-distance driving because of the available range and speed of refueling. "Of course, there are technological hurdles that need to be cleared to make this commercially viable," he said to Reuters. One of the biggest of those obstacles is building a new refueling infrastructure. But, despite government subsidies, Japan looks set to miss its goal of opening 100 H2 stations by the end of March 2016. Toyota has thrown a lot of support behind hydrogen but has been accused of overstating some of the fuel's benefits and embellishing the current refueling infrastructure. Still, engineers at the automaker are working to bring the cost of the fuel cell vehicle down to the level of a diesel by 2022.

Unintended acceleration settlement hits Toyota's Q4 bottom line

Depending on how you want to look at things, the US Attorney's Office $1.2-billion dollar settlement with Toyota in March over its unintended acceleration recall was either a big blow to the company or completely inconsequential. From January to March, net income fell five percent to 297 billion yen ($2.89 billion), compared to 313.9 billion yen ($3.05 billion) a year ago. However, the automaker still posted record full-year profits worldwide.
Operating profit also fell in the US by 9 percent to $498.1 million for the quarter, but sales were up by 6 percent to 581,261 vehicles. According to Automotive News, global revenue was still up from January to March by about 13 percent and vehicle sales were up 6 percent to 2.58 million units.
However, the payment to the feds did little to hold the company back last year. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2014, Toyota had net income of 1.82 trillion yen ($17.7 billion), compared to 962.1 billion yen ($9.5 billion) in the last fiscal year. Total vehicle sales were also up.