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For thousands of US auto workers, the downturn is already here

LORDSTOWN, Ohio - Wall Street is fretting that the auto industry is heading for a downturn, but for thousands of workers at General Motors factories in the United States, the hard times are already here. Matt Streb, 36, was one of 1,200 workers laid off on Jan. 20 - inauguration day for President Donald Trump - when GM canceled the third shift at its Lordstown small-car factory here. Sales of the Chevrolet Cruze sedan, the only vehicle the plant makes, have nosedived as consumers switch to SUVs and pickup trucks. Streb is looking for another job, but employers are wary because they assume he will quit whenever GM calls him back. "I get it," said Streb, who has a degree in communications, "but it's frustrating." Layoffs at Lordstown and other auto plants point to a broader challenge for the economy in Midwestern manufacturing states and for the Trump administration. "This is about economics, not what Trump says. Even if Trump went out and bought 10,000 Cruzes a month, he wouldn't get the third shift back here." The auto industry's boom from 2010 through last year was a major driver for manufacturing job creation. The fading of that boom threatens prospects for US industrial output and job creation that were central to Trump's victory in Ohio and other manufacturing states. "This is about economics, not what Trump says," said Robert Morales, president of United Auto Workers (UAW) union Local 1714, which represents workers at GM's stamping plant at Lordstown. "Even if Trump went out and bought 10,000 Cruzes a month, he wouldn't get the third shift back here." Last week the Federal Reserve said factory output fell 0.4 percent in May, the second decline in three months, due partly to a 2 percent drop in motor vehicles and parts production. Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has compiled data from government sources that show the auto industry punching higher than its weight in job creation in recent years - accounting for between 60 percent and 80 percent of all US manufacturing jobs added in 2015 and 2016. In the first quarter of this year, the auto industry accounted for less than 2 percent of the 45,000 manufacturing jobs created. "There's no argument with the idea that auto has been pulling the manufacturing sled up the mountain for the last three or four years," Muro said.

Ford's cars being held up in Chinese ports in trade tensions with U.S.

BEIJING — Ford Motor Co's imported vehicles are being held up at Chinese ports, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, underscoring how U.S. goods are facing increased customs scrutiny in China amid a tense trade standoff. The three people said Ford and Lincoln vehicles were facing unusual delays at customs, with officials asking for extra technical checks. Two of the people said U.S.-made models of some German carmakers, mainly SUVs, being brought into China, were also affected. Ford was being asked to do extra checks on emission components, said a China-based Ford executive familiar with the matter, asking not be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. China's customs agency did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The holdups add to a growing list of American products facing issues at China's borders, as officials try to avert a full-blown trade war. Some trade experts said they believe Beijing is sending a defiant warning to Washington in response to sweeping U.S. trade demands made on China last week. Reuters reported Tuesday that China had ramped up inspections of pork shipped from the United States, after the country's customs agency said it would step up quarantine checks on American apples and logs. The second person, a China-based industry official with knowledge of the matter, said the delays for Ford — as well as some U.S.-made cars from BMW and Mercedes-Benz — had been going on for the last two weeks. "Customs pretends there are technical non-conformities of some nature that won't allow them to clear these U.S.-made cars through customs, but the U.S.-China trade frictions must be the background to this," he said. "Although no one will officially admit it." Responding to a request for comment from Reuters, a BMW spokesman said that "U.S.-made BMW cars have not been delayed at the ports as of last week and before." A Daimler spokeswoman said it was "monitoring the situation closely" regarding ongoing trade talks between China and the United States, but that she could not speculate further on other matters. The third person said the Ford issue, which had been noted by the United States government, and other holdups facing American goods, were clearly related to the trade dispute. A Ford spokeswoman in Shanghai when asked about the matter said: "We are closely monitoring our situation at the port." She declined to comment further.

The UAW's 'record contract' hinges on pensions, battery plants

DETROIT - After nearly four weeks of disruptive strikes and hard bargaining, the United Auto Workers and the Detroit Three automakers have edged closer to a deal that could offer record-setting wage gains for nearly 150,000 U.S. workers. General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis have all agreed to raise base wages by between 20% and 23% over a four-year deal, according to union and company statements. Ford and Stellantis have agreed to reinstate cost-of-living adjustments, or COLA. The companies have offered to boost pay for temporary workers and give them a faster path to full-time, full-wage status. All three have proposed slashing the time it takes a new hire to get to the top UAW pay rate. The progress in contract talks follows the first-ever simultaneous strike by the UAW against Detroit's Big Three automakers. The union began the strike on Sept. 15 in hopes of forcing a better deal from each major automaker. But coming close to a deal is not the same thing as reaching a deal. Big obstacles remain on at least two major UAW demands: restoring the retirement security provided by pre-2007 defined benefit pension plans, and covering present and future joint- venture electric vehicle battery plants under the union's master contracts with the automakers. On retirement, none of the automakers has agreed to restore pre-2007 defined-benefit pension plans for workers hired after 2007. Doing so could force the automakers to again burden their balance sheets with multibillion-dollar liabilities. GM and the former Chrysler unloaded most of those liabilities in their 2009 bankruptcies. The union and automakers have explored an approach to providing more income security by offering annuities as an investment option in their company-sponsored 401(k) savings plans, people familiar with the discussions said. Stellantis referred to an annuity option as part of a more generous 401(k) proposal on Sept. 22. Annuities or similar instruments could give UAW retirees assurance of fixed, predictable payouts less dependent on stock market ups and downs, experts said. Recent changes in federal law have removed obstacles to including annuities as a feature of corporate 401(k) plans, said Olivia Mitchell, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School and an expert on pensions and retirement. "Retirees want a way to be assured they won't run out of money," Mitchell said.