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Lincoln Nautilus, Ford Edge latest prediction: Production ends in July 2024

In June, Auto Forecast Solutions put out a report compiled by its vice president of global forecasting, Sam Fiorani. One item in the report covered how Fiorani had heard from "multiple sources" that Ford shut down the program to replace the Edge crossover in 2023. Assuming this came to pass, with the Lincoln Nautilus based on the Edge, the inference is that the Nautilus would retire at or around the same time. Ford's response to media queries about the report was either "No comment" or PR-speak deflection. Lincoln's statement on the matter to Motor1, a crafty non-answer, was, "The Nautilus plays and will continue to play an important role in Lincoln’s growing SUV portfolio which includes the Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. Lincoln is investing in growth segments like SUVs and we have no plans to exit the segment." It's possible Lincoln has no plans to leave the segment, but the Nautilus might, according to a fresh, unsourced report in Ford Authority. The site claims the Nautilus will end production at the Oakville Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada, in July 2024.  Again, we can't know how much, if any of this, is true. But we're zeroing in on a timeline for the potential end of the Edge and Nautilus in the U.S. Those are the only two products Oakville currently builds, and when the Canadian union Unifor asked Ford about the reports in June, Ford couldn't offer union reps anything concrete or reassuring. The Detroit News quoted Unifor chief Jerry Dias as saying of the automaker, "There is no question, they are going through a major evaluation of their portfolio, based on a whole host of things."   We could be seeing one of the earlier theories for Edge's potential demise coming true. Some analysts suspect Ford could be pruning its crossover lineup because it has too many similarly-sized offerings at the moment, the Edge hasn't met its sales targets in Europe, and more compact crossovers are on the way that could bring better street cred if they're associated with the Bronco or Bronco Sport. Unifor and Ford are now in negotiations over a new contract, so it's possible we'll get more clarity in the next month or so about Ford's plans and what will come of Oakville and its roughly 4,000 workers. If Ford walks away from the assembly plant, it will only have two engine plants left in Canada, and no vehicle assembly north of the border for the first time in about a century.

Stocks down as automakers, Boeing lead China's hit list in trade spat

Shares in U.S. exporters of everything from planes to tractors fell on Wednesday after China retaliated against the Trump administration's tariff plans by proposing duties on key U.S. imports including soybeans, beef and chemicals. U.S. automakers' products are prominent on China's list of tariff targets, yet shares of automakers ended higher on Wednesday as Wall Street stocks changed course in the afternoon when investors' trade fears subsided. Tesla shares closed 7.3 percent higher at $286.94, Ford shares gained 1.6 percent to close at $11.33, and GM shares were up 3 percent at $38.03. Aircraft maker Boeing closed down 1 percent, weighing the most on the Dow Jones Industrial Average as documents from China's Ministry of Commerce and the U.S. manufacturer showed the move would affect some older Boeing narrowbody models. It was not immediately clear how much the tariffs would impact its newer aircraft. Boeing said it was assessing the situation while analysts from JP Morgan said the proposals from China looked to have been calibrated carefully to avoid a major impact on the planemaker. Fellow Dow component 3M lost as much as 2.4 percent. And farming equipment maker Deere lost nearly $10 per share at its lowest. The company urged the two countries to work toward a resolution to "limit uncertainty for farmers and avoid meaningful disruptions to agricultural trade." The speed with which the trade spat between Washington and Beijing is ratcheting up — the Chinese government took less than 11 hours to respond with its own measures — led to a sharp selloff in global stock markets and commodities. China was hitting back against U.S. President Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods with similar tariffs on U.S. goods even as Trump said the country is "not in a trade war with China." "Everybody knew they were going to retaliate. The question was how strong of a retaliation. Today's move clearly shows that they mean business," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments in New York. China levied 25 percent additional tariffs on U.S. goods, but unlike Washington's list that covers many obscure industrial items, Beijing's covers 106 key U.S. imports including soybeans, planes, cars, whiskey and chemicals. Trump denied that the tit-for-tat moves amounted to a trade war between the world's two economic superpowers.

Detroit Three to lose dominance of North American auto output in 2017

DETROIT — North American vehicle production by the unionized Detroit Three automakers will fall behind the combined North American output of Tesla and automakers from Europe and Asia for the first time this year, IHS Markit forecast on Wednesday. In 2017, the Detroit Three could build 8.6 million vehicles in North America, while Tesla and foreign automakers build 8.7 million, IHS Markit analyst Joe Langley said. By 2024, the gap will widen, with Asian and European automakers and Tesla combining to build about 9.8 million vehicles in North America. General Motors, Ford and the North American operations of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV will combine to build 8.1 million vehicles, down 6 percent from this year. Mexico is on track to increase its share of North American vehicle production, Langley said, moving to 4.5 million vehicles a year by 2024 from about 4 million vehicles currently. The milestone for the growth of Tesla and foreign automakers in North America comes as the Trump administration is pushing to limit imports of vehicles from Mexico in negotiations to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement. The declining share of North American vehicle production for the Detroit automakers also challenges U.S. and Canadian unions that represent their workers. Canadian workers are on strike at a GM factory in Ontario to protest the automaker's decision to cut jobs and move to Mexico some production of sport utility models built there. Foreign automakers over the past year have announced plans for a wave of new or expanded plants in North America, while Tesla is ramping up to build as many as 500,000 cars a year at its plant in Fremont, Calif. Often referred to as "transplants," the foreign-owned factories are poised to become the mainstream of the North American auto industry. Automakers are increasingly using factories in China or Mexico to build vehicles that used to be assembled solely in the United States, Langley said. He cited as an example Ford's decision to shift production of the Focus small car for North America to a Chinese assembly plant. Reporting by Joseph WhiteRelated Video: Image Credit: Reuters Plants/Manufacturing Chrysler Ford GM