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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Ford finds flex-fuel engine design plays big role in emissions output

How bad is ethanol for your engine? There's been a lot of debate on this issue as the US considers upping the biofuel content in the national gasoline supply from 10 percent (E10) to 15 percent (E15). The ethanol industry and some scientists say higher ethanol blends show no "meaningful differences" in new engines while the oil industry says ethanol creates health risks. Researchers working at the Ford Research and Innovation Center decided to take a closer look at how a wide range of gas-ethanol blends - E0, E10, E20, E30, E40, E55 and E80 - affected the emissions coming out of a flex-fuel 2006 Mercury Grand Marquis. To see the full report, printed in the journal Environmental Science & Technology, requires payment, but there is an abstract and Green Car Congress has some more details. The gist is that, "with increasing ethanol content in the fuel, the tailpipe emissions of ethanol, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, methane, and ammonia increased." At least NOx and NMHC emissions decreased. The researchers say that the effects are due to the fuel and "are expected for all FFVs," but that the way that a manufacturer calibrates the engine will affect NOx, THC, and NMOG emissions. It's this last bit that's important, since the researchers found, "Higher ethanol content in gasoline affects several fundamental fuel properties that can impact emissions. ... These changes can have positive or negative effects that can depend on engine design, hardware, and control strategy. In addition to direct emissions impacts, higher ethanol content fuel can also provide more efficient combustion and overall engine operation under part-load conditions and under knock-limited higher-load conditions." So, as we head towards more ethanol in our fuel supply (maybe), manufacturers are going to need to learn how to burn it most efficiently.

STUDY: Ford owns brand loyalty in 2009; Scorned Saturn, Pontiac buyers will look outside of GM

Ford buyers appear to love their cars more than customers of any other automotive brand, returning back to the American automaker when it comes time to purchase their next vehicle. According to a study by Experian Automotive, six of the top 10 vehicles for customer brand loyalty wear badges from the Blue Oval. That includes the Ford Fusion (62.4 percent), Ford Edge (57.9 percent), Ford Five Hundred/Taurus (56 percent), Ford Freestyle (51.9 percent), Ford Escape (49.4 percent) and the Ford Focus (47.57 percent).
Other vehicles making up the top 10 include the Toyota Prius (52 percent), Chevy Impala (51.7 percent), Toyota Camry (47.8 percent) and Toyota Corolla (47.56 percent). This brings up an interesting question: With the closing of automotive brands like Saturn and Pontiac, where are those buyers to turn for their next automotive purchase?
Apparently, not back to General Motors. According to Experian, Pontiac owners are most likely to look to the Ford lineup for their next car or truck and Saturn shoppers will switch to Toyota or Honda - not particularly surprising given that Saturn was meant to compete with import brands. Experian predicts that GM's overall market share will fall from 20 percent to about 17.5 percent, with most of the slack being picked up by Ford, Honda and Toyota.