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GM says EVs are the future — but trucks are going to take it there

In the PowerPoint deck for the General Motors Capital Markets Day presentation, one of the more disturbing things comes early on, during GM President Mark Reuss' initial remarks, in an area where he is discussing the company's overall strength in trucks. The point being made is that GM has a truck for all and sundry. And there it is, a phrase on a slide that should send chills up the spines of those who still pine for the old Bob Seger "Like a Rock" Silverado ads: "Little bit country. Little bit rock 'n' roll." That's right. Donny and Marie. Somehow the Denis Leary snark in the F-150 ads is all the more appealing. The Capital Markets Day presentation was chock full of observations about electrification and automation (Reuss and CEO Mary Barra both noted that the corporation's vision is one of "Zero Crashes. Zero Emissions. Zero Congestion." Dan Ammann talked about the progress being made at Cruise Automation; Reuss rolled out the plan for an array of electrified vehicles, with a luxury EV and a compact SUV being the "Centroid Entries" for the modular bases of many others). But it is worth noting that there is no getting away from the power of pickups in the U.S. market, as that was the central topic in Chief Financial Officer Dhivya Suryadevara's comments, with "Truck Franchise" being flanked by "Key Financial Priorities" and "Financial Outlook." Clearly, to gloss the old phrase, the truck segment is where the money is. Suryadevra enumerated how the truck segment is significantly different than other types of light vehicles. Among her points: GM, Ford and FCA have more than 90% of market share. The truck parc has been growing and aging over the past 10 years. Customers are fiercely loyal to the segment—as in 70% of truck buyers are truck buyers. A good number of the vehicles are for commercial use (40 percent). Trucks are "less prone to. . .mobility disruption." Trucks offer high margins. Translaton: The segment is one that they're solidly positioned in. There are lots of old trucks on the road that will need to be replaced by new ones. Perhaps buyers may switch from a Sierra to a Canyon, but it will be a truck. If your livelihood depends on that type of vehicle, even if gas prices go up or the economy begins to go south, you're going to stick with it. Most of the country isn't San Francisco, so trucks will continue to be essential. And, well, they're profitable in the extreme.

Trucks and tidbits from GM's earnings report

General Motors announced this morning that 2018 was a good year for it financially, thanks in large part to the company's performance in North America, which was predicated, according to the company, on "strong pricing, surging crossover sales, successful execution of the company's full-size truck launch, growth of GM Financial earnings, and disciplined cost control." GM reported full-year income of $8.1 billion and EBIT-adjusted income of $11.8 billion. Crossover sales in 2018 were 1,034,808, an increase of 7 percent compared to 2017 deliveries. Throw in the body-on-frame SUVs and the ute number is a total 1,295,700. But let's face it: It is the trucks that really matter. The Chevy Silverado and Colorado, the GMC Sierra and Canyon. Altogether, GM sold 973,463 pickups in the U.S. in 2018. Although Ford gets bragging rights for F-Series sales, GM gets to point out that it has a greater aggregate number. An important factor regarding the trucks and the reported income is that during the last quarter, more than 90 percent of the new 2019 trucks were crew cabs (which have a higher sticker), and at GMC more than 70 percent were Denali and AT4 models (which have even higher stickers). According to reporting by Bloomberg, GM's pickup trucks combine for $65 billion in annual revenue. Clearly when the 2018 sales of the Silverado — 585,581— dwarf the combined sales of both Buick (206,863) and Cadillac combined (154,702), pickups are what matter to the overall health of the company in a way that it is difficult to otherwise achieve. The "disciplined cost control" is something that is very much in the public eye right now, as the company is taking out thousands of its workers, and there is still the "unallocated" plant situation and other plants that will remain under capacity. The numbers in GM's earnings report probably made Unifor members' heads explode in consternation, coming fresh off their Super Bowl ad: " GM, you may have forgotten our generosity, but we'll never forget your greed." But there are a couple of curiosities in the full GM earnings release. One is that so far as its autonomous efforts go, it mentions only that (1) in the first quarter of 2018 Cruise introduced a production-ready autonomous vehicle, and (2) Cruise attracted $5 billion in external capital from SoftBank and Honda. Not a whole lot of love for autonomy. Good thing they have the trucks to fund the program, to say nothing of the external capital.

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