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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Chevy Volt 'acceptable,' Nissan Leaf 'poor' in new IIHS safety tests

Ford C-Max Hybrid also scored "acceptable" rating. With US Nissan Leaf sales up almost 30 percent during the first half of the year, the only thing that might be able to stop the battery-electric vehicle is a good, stiff barrier. Unfortunately, thing's aren't always pretty when that happens in the real world, according to new tests from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). Things with the Chevrolet Volt extended-range plug-in are a little bit rosier, though. The two plug-in vehicles were part of a batch of a dozen vehicles that just went through the IIHS's "small overlap" test, in which the driver's side front corner of the vehicle is crashed into a rigid barrier at 40 miles per hour. Out of the dozen, only the Mini Cooper Countryman was given a "good" rating. Five vehicles, including the Volt and the Ford C-Max Hybrid, were rated "acceptable," two were "marginal" and two, including the Leaf, were "poor." Plug-in vehicles are unique in the crash-test context because of their relatively large battery sizes. In the Volt's case, the driver had a "low risk" of injury, said the IIHS. But the Leaf's crash substantially pushed back the instrument panel and steering column, creating a scenario where the driver was "likely" to sustain leg injuries. The batteries in both the Leaf and the Volt passed safety tests specifically targeted at things like thermo and electrical properties and overall integrity. "Nissan is proud of the Leaf's 'Good' rating in all other IIHS tests, a 4-star NCAP rating from NHTSA and its IIHS Top Safety Pick rating in all previous years since the car's release," the company said in an e-mail sent to AutoblogGreen. "As for the performance of the 2014 Leaf in the 'small overlap frontal test,' Nissan will continue to review these and other results from the IIHS 'small overlap frontal test' as we seek opportunities for improvement." Check out the IIHS's press release and small car crash-test video footage below. Range of ratings: Small car ratings run the gamut in challenging small overlap front test The Mini Cooper Countryman is the only small car to earn a good rating among the latest group of 12 cars subjected to the Institute's small overlap front crash test. Two electric models and a hybrid also are in the mix, with varied results. The electric-powered Chevrolet Volt (with a gasoline engine "range extender") earns an acceptable rating, while its battery-electric rival, the Nissan Leaf, earns a poor rating.

Six-week production shutdown planned for 2016 Chevy Volt

It's no surprise that GM is winding down production of the first-gen Chevy Volt as it prepares to start building the second-gen for a launch in the second half of this year, but for now, things are proceeding as planned, according to Chevrolet spokesperson Michelle Malcho. Malcho told AutoblogGreen that GM "is still making first generation Volt" and that there has been no announcement about when that will change. The only details she would divulge is that, "It will be this summer." "Halting Chevrolet Volt production in anticipation of the all-new 2016 model year is a smart move for GM," Akshay Anand, an analyst at Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com, said in a statement. "[The move] allows for less inventory and incentives on the outgoing model. Hybrid and alternative fuel vehicle sales have been declining for some time now, with gas prices well below the summer prices of 2014." Volt production will cease in the weeks before the traditional two-week auto plant shutdown over the July 4 holiday. A high inventory of Volts is a factor in the production cuts, but not the only one, Malcho said. The plant construction, engineering changes and pre-production plans for the new Volt and CT6 all were part of the decision, she said. Nationwide, there is about a 200-day supply of Volts on dealer lots (roughly 100 days in California, the car's biggest market), according to the Detroit Free Press, which says there will be a six-week retooling period (twice as long as normal, but other sources say the shutdown will be four weeks long) at GM's Hamtramck plant this summer to get ready for the second-gen model. The 2016 Volt will get an increase in all-electric range to 50 miles and will then get 41 miles per gallon when the battery runs out. It also has a fifth seat that straddles the battery tunnel and a larger li-ion battery. Related Video: The AP contributed to this report. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevy Volt View 16 Photos News Source: GM, Detroit Free Press Green Plants/Manufacturing Chevrolet Electric Hybrid