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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Chevy, GMC and Ram dealers are worried they'll run out of new pickups

One of the unexpected side effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic is a shortage of pickups at Chevrolet, GMC and Ram dealers. Supplies are running out, and the factories that build these trucks remain closed. Stores across the nation began increasing incentives in March, when the first stay-at-home orders were issued, in a bid to continue luring buyers into showrooms. They also launched online sales channels, or expanded their existing digital business. Sales nonetheless plummeted in April 2020, but in-demand vehicles, like the Ram 1500 and the Chevrolet Silverado, are still selling relatively well thanks in part to the aforementioned incentives. Pickups outsold sedans for the first time in April 2020, according to The Detroit News, by 17,000 units. The problem is that General Motors, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), and Ford temporarily closed their factories in March. "The pipeline is very dry," said Mike Maroone, the CEO of a large dealership group named Maroone USA, in an interview with Automotive News. He told the publication his Chevrolet stores are sitting on a 30-day supply of the Silverado, which is one of America's best-selling vehicles. "That is a problem for us," he concluded. Coronavirus-related lockdowns and factory closures compound problems already faced by dealerships who represent General Motors-owned brands. They entered 2020 with a thinner inventory than a year earlier due to the 40-day United Auto Workers (UAW) strike that paralyzed the company late in 2019, and the 0%, 84-month offers announced in March have sapped supply. Ram wasn't affected by a strike, but it has relied heavily on generous incentives to move trucks off lots. Ford, on the other hand, limited incentives to 2019 models. Inventory levels differ greatly from region to region. The national average for the Silverado stood at an 82-day supply in March 2020, down from 120 in March 2019. Ram stores had a 114-day supply of the 1500 (compared to 134 a year earlier), while Ford bucked that trend with a 111-day supply versus 84 in 2019. Don't panic if you're in the market for a truck; we're not facing a complete drought. Automotive News added that America's light-duty pickup inventory could fall to 400,000 units by the end of May, and drop further to 260,000 units in June. For context, there were about 700,000 light-duty trucks in stock in May and June of 2019. That's unquestionably a sharp drop, but there will still be over a quarter of a million trucks to choose from.

How Chevy Silverado, GMC Sierra will take on the Ford F-150 profit machine

FORT WAYNE, Ind. — When General Motors engineers were developing the 2019 Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra pickup trucks, some of them joined public tours of Ford's Dearborn, Mich., factory to watch aluminum-bodied F-Series trucks go down the assembly line. The redesign of the Ford F-Series trucks, launched in 2014, set a new standard for fuel economy and lightweight vehicle construction. But armed with stopwatches and trained eyes, the GM engineers believed they saw problems. "They had a real hard time getting those doors to fit," Tim Herrick, the executive chief engineer for GM truck programs, told Reuters. His team did more intelligence gathering. They bought and tore apart Ford F-Series doors sold as repair parts. Their conclusion: GM could cut weight in its trucks for a lower cost using doors made of a combination of aluminum and high-strength steel that could be thinner than standard steel, shaving off kilograms in the process. These pounds-and-pennies decisions will have major implications in the highest-stakes game going in Detroit: dominance in the world's most profitable vehicle market, the gasoline-fueled large pickup segment. What's more, GM is banking on strong sales of overhauled 2019 Silverados and GMC Sierras to fund its push into automated and electric vehicles — a business many investors see as the auto industry's long-term future. The risks are high given the hits automakers have taken from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies. Rising aluminum prices spurred by Trump's tariffs are driving up costs on the Ford's F-Series, while rising steel and aluminum prices likewise drag on GM results. GM also has a significant risk should the United States, Mexico and Canada fail to agree on a new NAFTA trade deal, given GM trucks built at its Silao, Mexico, factory could face a 25 percent tariff if NAFTA collapses. Major profit per truck Interviews with GM executives and a tour at its factory here in northwest Indiana provide a detailed look inside GM's plan for the most important vehicles in its global lineup. These big pickups are everything Tesla's Model 3 or Chevy's Bolt electric car is not. The mostly steel body is bolted to the truck's steel frame, rather than the one-piece body and frame electric vehicles. The majority of trucks will have a V-8 gasoline engine powering the rear wheels — like the classic GM cars of the 1950s. Some Silverados will have new four-cylinder engines, but there is no electric or hybrid offering as of now.