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Volvo Cars plans $20 billion stock IPO this month, sources say

STOCKHOLM — China's Geely Holding is in advanced discussions with banks to list its Volvo Cars unit in the coming weeks, three sources told Reuters, in what is expected to be one of Europe's biggest initial public offerings (IPOs) this year. Volvo Cars is aiming for a valuation of about $20 billion in the planned Stockholm listing, the sources said, with one saying the launch was penciled in for the end of September. Goldman Sachs and SEB are leading the transaction, while other banks including BNP Paribas, Carnegie and HSBC are also involved in the deal, the sources added. Volvo Cars declined to comment. Geely did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment outside normal business hours in China. SEB and Goldman Sachs declined to comment. The other banks were not immediately available. Geely, which bought Volvo from Ford more than a decade ago in the biggest acquisition by a Chinese firm of a foreign car maker, sought to float shares in the Swedish firm in 2018 but then pulled the deal citing trade tensions and a downturn in automotive stocks. Traditional carmakers have fallen out of favor in recent years, as Tesla has risen to be one of the world's most valuable companies, putting the focus on electric vehicles. Many European firms have pivoted toward the electric sector, including Volvo, which aims to only make fully electric cars by 2030 and owns a 49.5% stake in electric car maker Polestar. Valuation Gothenburg-based Volvo Cars aims to secure a valuation of roughly $20 billion, one of the sources said, while another mentioned a possible range of $20 billion to $30 billion. A third source suggested a $16 billion valuation was more realistic, citing the firm's revenue outlook. A $20 billion valuation for Volvo would be equivalent to six to seven times its earnings, a level some analysts say is high although it would put it in line with rivals Daimler and BMW. Tesla's valuation is more than 70 times that. NordLB's automotive analyst Frank Schwope estimated a valuation range of $10 billion to $15 billion. "The strong margins seen in the first half of 2021 are unlikely sustainable as the market benefited from a strong post-pandemic rebound that is unlikely to continue," Schwope said. For Geely's founder Li Shufu, who bought Volvo for $1.8 billion, the listing is a milestone on the road to transport of the future, where cars are part of an electrified network of mobility services generating data and business opportunities.

Daimler rebuffs Geely offer to buy stake

HONG KONG/BEIJING - Daimler AG has turned down an offer from China's Geely to take a stake of up to 5 percent via a discounted share placement, as the German automaker has long been reluctant to see existing shareholdings diluted, sources with knowledge of the talks said. A stake of that size would be worth $4.5 billion at current market prices. Although Daimler declined the offer, it told Geely it was welcome to buy shares in the open market, the sources added. Carmakers in China have embarked on a flurry of dealmaking, as they scramble to boost production of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles ahead of tough new quotas to be imposed by Beijing, which wants to reduce urban smog and lower the country's reliance on oil. People with knowledge of Geely's thinking said the company was keen to access Daimler's electric car battery technology and wanted to establish an electric car joint venture in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province. Geely, which also owns Swedish car maker Volvo, is still hopeful it can secure a deal in some form over the coming weeks, they added. The two automakers met in Beijing in recent weeks at Geely's behest. There, the Chinese firm, formally known as Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, offered to take a stake of between 3 percent and 5 percent if Daimler would issue new shares at a discount, the sources said. It was not immediately clear what kind of discount for the shares Geely had in mind or whether Geely was interested in buying the shares on the open market. A spokesman for Geely declined to comment. A spokesman for Daimler said the company was "very happy with our shareholder structure at present", but added that it would welcome new investors with a long-term interest in the company. Shares in Daimler were up 1 percent in early Wednesday trade, in line with the broader market.DAIMLER ALREADY TIED TO BAIC, BYD Geely, which has a market value of some $32 billion, is the leading domestic brand in China with a 5 percent market share, according to an analysis by Nomura Securities. A stake of 5 percent would establish it as Daimler's third-largest shareholder behind the Kuwait Investment Authority and BlackRock, who hold 6.8 percent and 6 percent respectively, according to Reuters data.

Volvo returns to profitability

Ford sold Volvo to Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Limited in 2010. Just two years later, Geely announced an $11-billion investment in the Swedish carmaker, its charismatic fugleman Li Shifu saying, "We want to revive Volvo and give the brand its strength back." Two years later, after having introduced the Concept XC Coupe at the Detroit Auto Show this week, Volvo CEO Håkan Samuelsson (above, second from right) declared the company profitable again after a solid 2013 and predicted a positive 2014.
Intending to break even on operating profit in 2013, Volvo exceeded expectations and landed on the plus side due to a mix of factors. US sales declined 10.1 percent for the year to 61,233, that number still making us Volvo's largest market, but Chinese sales were up nearly 46 percent to 61,146 units, and even its home market saw a bump of 0.8 percent; total sales for the year were 427,840, a margin of 1.4-percent over the previous year. Volvo was able to do more with the tiny gain and reverse its half-year operating loss because of a global cost restructuring and thorough revamp of its Chinese distribution network. An announcement of 2013's financial results will come in March.
Bullishness on 2014 comes from the company's intention to focus on its two biggest markets with new models, new technology and more spending. The first product of an independent Volvo, the new XC90, will be revealed later this year on the new SPA architecture. On top of the Sensus Connect infotainment system, Volvo will add driver-aid systems like adaptive cruise control with steer assist and night-time pedestrian detection. It also has a new North American CEO and will spend more on marketing and communications here. In China it will begin to feel more effect from the two Chinese factories opened last year - it has three in the country - and, if need be, can take advantage of more advantageous exchange rates by exporting from China instead of the US. Said Samuelsson of what he expects in the US in 2014, "we will outperform the market."