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Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Bibendum 2014: Former EU President says Toyota could lose 100,000 euros per hydrogen FCV sedan

Pat Cox does not work for Toyota and we don't think he has any secret inside information. Still, he's the former President of the European Parliament and the current high level coordinator for TransEuropean Network, so when he says Toyota is likely going to lose between 50,000 and 100,000 euros ($66,000 and $133,000) on each of the hydrogen-powered FCV sedans it will sell next year, it's worth noting. That was just one highlight of Cox's presentation at the 2014 Michelin Challenge Bibendum in Chengdu, China today, which addressed the main problem of using more H2 in transportation: cost. The EU has a tremendous incentive to find an alternative to fossil fuels, since Europe today is 94 percent dependent on oil for its transportation sector and 84 percent of that 94 percent dependency is imported oil. The tab for that costs the EU a billion euros a day, Cox said, on top of the environmental costs. To encourage a shift away from petroleum, European Directive 2014/94 requires each member state to develop national policy frameworks for the market development of alternative fuels and their infrastructure. For the member states that choose to fulfill 2014/94 by developing a hydrogen market – and to be clear, Cox said, it's not an EU diktat that they do so, since a number of other alternatives are also allowed – the aim is to have things in place by the end of 2025. The plans don't even have to be submitted until the end of 2016. The long lead time is due to a quirk in a hydrogen economy. In hydrogen infrastructure, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the firstmover disadvantage." – Pat Cox In deploying a hydrogen infrastructure, Cox said, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the first-mover disadvantage, and high risk." That's why the EU and member states will financially support the early stages, but everyone agrees that "if this is to work, it will have to be ultimately and essentially a commercially viable and commercially driven infrastructure roll-out." Since 1986, European Union research programs have spent 550 million euros on hydrogen-related and fuel-cell-related research, including methods of hydrogen storage and distribution as well as improved fuel cells vehicles, Cox said. Expensive problems remain to be solved. At a conference in Berlin, Germany this past summer, Cox said, the unit cost of the refueling stations was identified as the main problem.

Vehicles awarded IIHS Top Safety Pick awards skyrockets for 2015 [w/video]

By practically every measure, passenger vehicles in the US are continuing to get safer. With the year rapidly coming to an end, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety is releasing its annual list tallying of the scores for the latest vehicles to see how they compare to last year. Judging by the agency's evaluations, the numbers look quite positive. According to the institute, 71 vehicles earned either the Top Safety Pick or Top Safety Pick+ rating so far in its testing for 2015. Among the latest winners, there have been 33 TSP+ awards and 38 TSP medalists. That's a healthy increase over the 22 TSP+ and 17 TSP grades in 2014. The figures appear even more impressive when you consider that it keeps getting harder to earn the + designation. In the latest round of testing, a vehicle must offer some form of front crash prevention automatic braking to get the mark. Previously, just a warning to drivers was necessary. This list also illustrates the ways that automakers adapt to new testing procedures. In 2013 there were 117 TSP ratings and 13 TSP+ awards. Then, the IIHS mandated that to be a safety pick, a model had to score Good in the institute's four crash tests, plus a Good or Acceptable in the small overlap front test. That brought a plunge in 2014 to just 17 TSP grades. With the numbers climbing again, companies apparently have deciphered how to perform better. Some brands especially stood out on this year's list. The IIHS praised Volvo, Mercedes-Benz and Acura for offering standard front crash prevention systems on some models. Subaru received at least one of the awards for all seven of its models. Toyota also had seven, and the Honda brand did too – though the institute counts the two- and four-door versions of the Civic and Accord separately. Check out the full announcement below and a video about this year's winners. The full list can be viewed, here. Safety gains ground: More vehicles earn top honors from IIHS The number of vehicles earning either of the Institute's two awards has jumped to 71 from 39 this time last year, giving consumers more choices for optimum protection in crashes. The number of winners in the top tier - TOP SAFETY PICK+ - has increased by 11 for 2015, despite a tougher standard for front crash prevention. "This is the third year in a row that we are giving automakers a tougher challenge to meet," says IIHS President Adrian Lund.