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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Nissan Xterra's fate hangs in the balance

The Nissan Xterra might not be long for this world, according to a report from Edmunds. The rugged SUV, which has always been a bit more of a hardcore, purpose-built vehicle than the rest of the Nissan SUV range. But it has also suffered from slowing sales, low fuel economy relative to the competition and general neglect, as Nissan has focused on other offerings in its range.
"There are plans to replace it, there are always plans, (but) I am not sure it will happen. I would say in the next six months to a year," Pierre Loing, vice president of product planning for Nissan Americas told Edmunds. Part of the problem, he added, was that the Xterra is a US-only vehicle, which makes it a hard sell in a world where automakers are increasingly depending on global cars.
Besides the economic forces working against the Xterra, it's just a vehicle that hasn't been a huge sales success of late. Customers are more conscious of fuel economy and a body-on-frame SUV that only nets 16 miles per gallon just isn't good enough; arguably why Nissan barely sold 17,000 units last year. We can hold out hope, as the Xterra remains a fun off-roader that we'd hate to see go, but unless Nissan finds a business case or some global partners, this is a vehicle that is on its last leg.

Don't expect to hear about second-gen Nissan Leaf anytime soon

With Chevy revealing the first details of the next-gen Volt at the Detroit Auto Show last month and Tesla priming the pump for the lower-cost Model 3, we're obviously curious to hear about the next-gen Nissan Leaf. It looks like we're going to have to wait. "Of course things are in the works," Nissan's Brian Brockman told AutoblogGreen at the Chicago Auto Show last week, reminding us that the automaker has long been proud of its EV leadership. What that means in practice is that people shouldn't expect to hear anything specific about the new Leaf until we get closer to the summer, well after the New York Auto Show in April. After all, no other companies have to worry about cannibalizing existing pure EV sales, he said. The Chevy Volt is a plug-in hybrid so the now-confirmed Bolt EV that may get here in 2017 is likely to appeal to a slightly different crowd and the audience for a $30,000 Tesla Model 3 is not really the same as the one interested in today's $100,000 Model S. There are any number of other plug-in vehicles coming in the next few years, but the Leaf reigns supreme as the best-selling pure EV in the US, so forgive us if we're curious to know what's coming next, beyond that vague descriptions of it as more mainstream looking with a longer range. Related Video: Featured Gallery 2013 Nissan Leaf View 13 Photos Green Nissan Electric brian brockman