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The next steps automakers could take after sales drop again in April

DETROIT (Reuters) - Major automakers on Tuesday posted declines in U.S. new vehicle sales for April in a sign the long boom cycle that lifted the American auto industry to record sales last year is losing steam, sending carmaker stocks down. The drop in sales versus April 2016 came on the heels of a disappointing March, which automakers had shrugged off as just a bad month. But two straight weak months has heightened Wall Street worries the cyclical industry is on a downward swing after a nearly uninterrupted boom since the Great Recession's end in 2010. Auto sales were a drag on U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product, with the economy growing at an annual rate of just 0.7 percent according to an advance estimate published by the Commerce Department last Friday. Excluding the auto sector the GDP growth rate would have been 1.2 percent. Industry consultant Autodata put the industry's seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales at 16.88 million units for April, below the average of 17.2 million units predicted by analysts polled by Reuters. General Motors Co shares fell 2.9 percent while Ford Motor Co slid 4.3 percent and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's U.S.-traded shares tumbled 4.2 percent. The U.S. auto industry faces multiple challenges. Sales are slipping and vehicle inventory levels have risen even as carmakers have hiked discounts to lure customers. A flood of used vehicles from the boom cycle are increasingly competing with new cars. The question for automakers: How much and for how long to curtail production this summer, which will result in worker layoffs? To bring down stocks of unsold vehicles, the Detroit automakers need to cut production, and offer more discounts without creating "an incentives war," said Mark Wakefield, head of the North American automotive practice for AlixPartners in Southfield, Michigan. "We see multiple weeks (of production) being taken out on the car side," he said, "and some softness on the truck side." Rival automakers will be watching each other to see if one is cutting prices to gain market share from another, he said, instead of just clearing inventory. INVESTORS DIGEST BAD NEWS Just last week GM reported a record first-quarter profit, but that had almost zero impact on the automaker's stock. The iconic carmaker, whose own interest was once conflated with that of America's, has slipped behind luxury carmaker Tesla Inc in terms of valuation.

Toyota might stop importing certain models if tariffs imposed

In case you hadn't heard, the entire automotive industry, both domestic and foreign, is very much against the automotive tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. And while the industry is lobbying hard against such tariffs, companies are also having to consider what to do in the event they are passed. CEO of Toyota's North American operations, Jim Lentz, told Bloomberg that the company will certainly be reconsidering its strategy in the event of tariffs between 10 and 25 percent the cost of the car. He told the news outlet that, depending on how high the tariffs are, Toyota might just increase the price of some models, or stop importing them altogether. Toyota does build a large number of its cars here in the United States. The Toyota Camry, Avalon, Tundra, Highlander, Sequoia, Sienna models are all built here, as well as some Tacomas, Corolla sedans, and Lexus ES sedans. Many of those vehicles are big sellers for Toyota, too, so that's good for the company. But many other Toyotas are built outside the country. The Toyota RAV4, Prius range, C-HR, Corolla hatchback, Land Cruiser, 86, Yaris, Yaris sedan, Mirai, 4Runner, and the entire Lexus line are built in other countries. Some of these imports we're sure are safe no matter how high the tariffs might be. The RAV4 is the company's biggest seller, and the Prius sells well, too. Even if the Prius wasn't selling so well, the company would probably still sell it simply because it's an image builder. Somewhat related, we imagine Toyota would continue offering a handful of Mirais. The 4Runner, C-HR and Corolla hatchback would probably be safe, too. If these models stick around after potential tariffs are imposed, expect their prices to increase. But in the Toyota line, anything that's not selling well and has tight margins is probably doomed. Chief among them are the French-built Yaris hatchback and the Mexican-built Yaris iA sedan. Both cars have terrible sales, and being low-end cheap cars, they'll only sell worse with higher prices, and Toyota will lose money if it has to eat the tariff. The 86 is a similar situation in which it's a niche vehicle that has had weak sales and is being sold at a relatively low price. The Land Cruiser could go either way. It sells in small numbers, but it's already extremely expensive and continues to sell. Buyers might not be put off by spending some more.

Toyota offered $146.5 million to build Lexus ES in Kentucky

Toyota posted a media advisory yesterday saying that Akio Toyoda, president of Toyota, and Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota North America, would be making a production announcement tomorrow in New York City, and Automotive News reports that the automaker will be announcing a plan to domestically produce the Lexus ES. According to the report, numerous plants are competing to build the ES in North America, and the State of Kentucky has offered the automaker up to $146.5 million to build the luxury sedan at the Georgetown, KY assembly plant.
If Georgetown gets the ES, which has been built in Japan since its debut in 1989, it would be built alongside the Toyota Camry, which is somewhat ironic since in our review of the 2013 Lexus ES350, we wrote that this ES finally says "goodbye to its Camry roots." In order to get the whole amount offered, the article states that Toyota would have to invest $531.2 million and hire 570 full-time workers at the plant, which doesn't sound all that unreasonable since the plant would require an additional 50,000 units of annual production, not to mention the fact that the Georgetown facility is already at its capacity for building the Camry.