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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM profits threatened by glut of pickups

Automotive News reports that General Motors may slash production or ramp up discounts in order to deal with an oversupply of pickup trucks. GM currently has more than double the standard supply of pickups, and the vehicles are threatening to dampen the automaker's profits for 2013. Typically, automakers try to sustain a 60- to 75-day supply of vehicles, but GM is currently loaded with a 139-day supply, as of last month. At the end of November, the automaker was sitting on 245,853 units.
The manufacturer says that it will adjust production accordingly before laying any incentives on the profitable pickups. Even so, there's some concern that the inventory swell could hurt the roll-out of the next-generation Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra. GM actually began slowly stepping back production in August, but it's clear the company will take further action as it heads toward the end of the year and into the next. Analysts predict the automaker could reduce pickup manufacturing by nearly half in the first quarter of 2013.
That still may not be enough to keep GM from laying extra cash on the Silverado and GMC Sierra. While the company's incentive spending was down in November compared to the same month in 2011, both the Ram 1500 and Ford F-150 saw double-digit percentage increases in sales last month while the Silverado and Sierra numbers slid compared to a year prior. Incentive spending could help move more trucks and add some balance to the GM inventory surge.

Full-size trucks are the best and worst vehicles in America

You don’t need me to tell you that Americans love pickup trucks. And the bigger the truck, the more likely it seems to be seen as an object of desire. Monthly and yearly sales charts are something of a broken record; track one is the Ford F-Series, followed by the Chevy Silverado, RamÂ’s line of haulers, and somewhere not far down the line, the GMC Sierra. The big Japanese players fall in place a bit further below — not that thereÂ’s anything wrong with a hundred thousand Toyota Tundra sales — and one-size-smaller trucks like the Toyota Tacoma, Ford Ranger and Chevy Colorado have proven awfully popular, too. Along with their sales numbers, the average cost of new trucks has similarly been on the rise. Now, I donÂ’t pretend to have the right to tell people what they should or shouldnÂ’t buy with their own money. But I just canÂ’t wrap my head around why a growing number of Americans are choosing to spend huge sums of money on super luxurious pickup trucks. Let me first say I do understand the appeal. People like nice things, after all. I know I do. I myself am willing to spend way more than the average American on all sorts of discretionary things, from wine and liquor to cameras and lenses. IÂ’ve even spent my own money on vehicles that I donÂ’t need but want anyway. A certain vintage VW camper van certainly qualifies. I also currently own a big, inefficient SUV with a 454-cubic-inch big block V8. So if your answer to the question IÂ’m posing here is that youÂ’re willing to pay the better part of a hundred grand on a chromed-out and leather-lined pickup simply because you want to, then by all means — not that you need my permission — go buy one. The part I donÂ’t understand is this: Why wouldn't you, as a rational person, rather split your garage in half? On one side would sit a nice car that is quiet, rides and handles equally well and gets above average fuel mileage. Maybe it has a few hundred gasoline-fueled horsepower, or heck, maybe itÂ’s electric. On the other side (or even outside) is parked a decent pickup truck. One that can tow 10,000 pounds, haul something near a ton in the bed, and has all the goodies most Americans want in their cars, like cruise control, power windows and locks, keyless entry, and a decent infotainment screen.