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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM may kill 6 car models as it works with UAW to tackle sales slump

The president of the United Auto Workers union said on Thursday the union is talking with General Motors about the potential threat to plants and jobs from slumping U.S. car sales. GM's response will be more trucks and SUVs, and sources say at least six slow-selling car models may be killed off. "We are talking to (GM) right now about the products that they currently have" at underused car plants such as Hamtramck in Michigan and Lordstown in Ohio, and whether they might be replaced with newer, more popular vehicles such as crossovers, Dennis Williams told reporters. "We are tracking it (and) we are addressing it," Williams added. GM has cut shifts at several U.S. plants this year as inventories of unsold cars have ballooned. Industry analysts said more jobs could be at risk as the automaker wrestles with permanently shrinking production of small and midsized sedans. GM is reviewing whether to cancel at least six passenger cars in the U.S. market after 2020, including the Chevrolet Volt hybrid, which could be replaced in 2022 with a new gasoline-electric crossover model, Reuters has learned from people familiar with the plans. Other GM cars at risk include the Buick LaCrosse, Cadillac CT6, Cadillac XTS, Chevrolet Impala and Chevrolet Sonic, sources said. Some analysts have singled out GM's Hamtramck plant in Detroit as one of the most vulnerable because of plummeting car sales. The plant, which opened in 1985, builds four slow-selling models: Buick LaCrosse, Chevrolet Impala, Cadillac CT6 and Chevrolet Volt. In the first half, it built fewer than 35,000 cars, down 32 percent from the same period in 2016, according to suppliers familiar with GM's U.S. production schedule. The typical GM assembly plant builds 200,000-300,000 vehicles a year.COMING ATTRACTIONS: TRUCKS AND SUVS GM must "create some innovative new products" to replace slow-selling sedans "or start closing plants," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of AutoForecast Solutions. The auto maker already has begun to shift future production plans from cars to trucks, according to Morgan Stanley auto analyst John Murphy. He estimates that fewer than 10 percent of the new vehicle models that GM will introduce over the next four years will be passenger cars, with the rest divided among trucks, SUVs and crossovers. GM plans to add production of the new Cadillac XT4 crossover next year to its Malibu sedan plant in Fairfax, Kansas.

These are the cars being discontinued for 2024 and beyond

While we get new and updated car models every year, its inevitable that we'll need to say goodbye to some nameplates as well. This time around, it feels like we have confirmation or reports of an unusually large number of vehicles being discontinued in 2024 and the coming years.  We shouldn't be surprised. A large number of automakers are approaching their various target dates for electrification of their fleets. As such, some beloved internal combustion cars are going away, sometimes with appropriate fanfare like special editions. Others are slinking away quietly, killed by slowing sales and changing consumer trends. Of course, the end of production doesn't necessarily mean permanent death. Some of these models could be resurrected in later years ... and probably as an EV. With that in mind, here are the vehicles that are being discontinued in 2024 and beyond.   Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio and Stelvio Quadrifoglio Alfa Romeo ended the production of its combustion-only Quadrifoglio models in April 2024 as the Italian automaker moves toward an electrified future. This isn't the end of the Quadrifoglio entirely, though, with Larry Dominique, Alfa Romeo senior vice president and head of North America, writing, "I look forward to presenting the next chapter in the four-leaf clover’s journey."   Chevrolet Camaro GM is ending production of the Chevy Camaro after 2024, but is sending it off in style with a CollectorÂ’s Edition. WouldnÂ’t it be cool, though, if Chevy brought it back as an EV?   Chevrolet Malibu Rumors of its demise have been around for a while, but now itÂ’s official. GM will end production of the Chevy Malibu in November of 2024. The assembly line in Kansas will be retooled to build the replacement for the Chevy Bolt.   Dodge Durango The three-row Durango is slated to be replaced by the Stealth nameplate after 2024. The Durango name could make a comeback later, according to rumors, on a body-on frame SUV based on the Jeep WagoneerÂ’s platform.   Ford Edge This is the last year for the Edge in the U.S., with the final unit rolling off the assembly line in April. On sale since 2007, the Edge topped 100,000 sales in all but three full years of production.   Ford Escape Newly refreshed for the 2023 model year, FordÂ’s popular Escape compact SUV is reportedly taking its leave in 2025 in order to usher in — you guessed it — an EV in its place.