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Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.

Ford continues autonomous tech development

Some of the autonomous-driving features that Ford offers in Europe will come to the United States as soon as next year. The Blue Oval will add the pre-collision assist and pedestrian detection technologies that it has already installed on the Mondeo sedan in Europe. Those features, part of what Ford calls the "second of three phases" in driverless technology, will be brought stateside in a yet-to-be disclosed model, while most of Ford's US vehicle line will have the features by 2019. It has been testing an automated Fusion for more than a year. Ford is looking to build upon the autonomous-vehicle technology that it already has on models such as the Fusion, Taurus, F-150, Edge, and Explorer. Those amenities include active-park assist, lane-departure warning, and blind-spot monitoring. Ford said early last year that it was working with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Stanford University to develop algorithms for use in driverless cars. The effort is part of Ford's so-called "Blueprint for Mobility" geared toward autonomous driving features that are being developed over the next decade. FORD COLLABORATES WITH SILICON VALLEY INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM ON AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, 3D PRINTING, WEARABLE TECHNOLOGY Autonomous vehicle technology is another step closer to production at Ford – moving from a research effort to an advanced engineering project Ford announces it is working with Silicon Valley-based 3D-printing firm Carbon3D to quickly produce high-quality automotive-grade parts Ford kicks off wearable technology development with MyFord® Mobile app extension – coming soon to smartwatches including Android Wear – providing customers the ability to check vehicle driving range, battery charge and more for their plug-in hybrid or electric vehicle quickly from their wrists Autonomous vehicle technology is another step closer to production at Ford, moving from a research effort to an advanced engineering program, the company announced today. Ford has appointed a director of autonomous vehicle development – 29-year Ford veteran Randy Visintainer – and created a global team to work on the advanced program. Ford Research and Innovation Center Palo Alto is working on the global Ford team to deliver the Ford Smart Mobility plan, which aims to take the company to the next level in connectivity, mobility, autonomous vehicles, the customer experience and big data.

F-150 just the start of Ford's aluminum plans

Not only have we been told that the 2015 Ford F-150 is tougher, more durable and up to 700 pounds lighter than the current truck, Ford COO Mark Fields said it's also "CAFE-positive." That means, for the first time in the history of corporate average fuel economy standards, the F-150 would be a positive contributor on Ford's CAFE balance sheet instead of being a vehicle it needs to counterbalance with frugal offerings.
Fields' comments made at the Detroit Auto Show were among quotes from other Ford execs that confirmed the carmaker will be using aluminum for more of its vehicles. CEO Alan Mulally said it would "proliferate across our lineup," with speculation being that we'll see it applied to crossover and sport utility models first, since they'll benefit the most. Even gaining the massive scale of using aluminum on the world's best selling vehicle for its first effort - on average, the company sells two times as many F-150s in a single day as Land Rover sells of its aluminum Range Rover in a month - Ford will be looking to further spread the cost of its five-year development investment in aluminum technology. And that should mean better handling and fuel economy for those of us who don't need to wear hardhats at the office.