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The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

NA auto output to reach 11-year peak

According to Automotive News, automakers are expected to manufacture 16 million light vehicles in North America in 2013. That's up 500,000 units from last year and marks the largest number since 2002. The prediction comes courtesy of LMC Automotive and IHS Automotive, which point to the improving US economy as a bellwether for total production. LMC Automotive says North America will produce 16 million vehicles while IHS has a slightly more optimistic forecast of 16.1 million units. A total of seven automakers are slated to increase production on the continent this year. Nissan is set to see the largest jump at 20 percent over last year.
Volkswagen, meanwhile, is one of the only manufacturers predicted to scale back production. Analysts expect the German company's output to fall by 23 percent to 170,000 units, thanks in part to slow demand for the Volkswagen Passat and Jetta.

Piech's dismissal from VW came after failed coup to oust Winterkorn

When the Volkswagen board ousted its chairman Ferdinand Piech over the weekend, we knew right away it had something to do with disapproval of chief executive Martin Winterkorn. And now we have more details of how that struggle reportedly came to a head. According to Reuters, Piech undertook a cloak-and-dagger campaign to oust Winterkorn as CEO, even after having publicly endorsed the top executive's leadership of the company. Piech reportedly focused on other members of his family – descendants of Ferdinand Porsche and majority stakeholders in Volkswagen – to install Porsche chief Matthias Mueller as group CEO in Winterkorn's stead. But Piech failed in his campaign, and was given an ultimatum by the board: either show yourself out or we'll kick you out. And so he resigned. A big part of Winterkorn's rescue and Piech's failure reportedly came at the hands of labor representatives on the VW board, like Berthold Huber who was appointed as acting chairman following Piech's departure. That may leave Winterkorn still in charge, but may leave him beholden to the unions even more than before. Winterkorn has been undertaking a concerted campaign to cut overhead costs at VW, but the trade unions have reportedly been blocking many of the steps the chief exec has proposed. The next big question is who will ultimately replace Piech in the long term at the head of the board table. Winterkorn could get the nod, leaving the company to find a new CEO to take his place. Another likely scenario, however, would be another member of the Porsche/Piech family taking the helm and leaving Winterkorn in place. Whether Ferdinand Piech ultimately sells his 13.2 percent stake in the company (likely to other members of his family) or holds on to it and exerts influence behind the scenes is an open question. One way or another, any major appointment at the head of either the management or supervisory board will require support from the Porsche/Piech family, from the works council of labor representatives and from the state government of Lower Saxony, so the process of filling Piech's vacancy will likely prove anything but straightforward. News Source: ReutersImage Credit: Thomas Kienzle/APN Hirings/Firings/Layoffs Volkswagen martin winterkorn