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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

United States drivers buying fewer Mexican-made cars

Crossovers and pickup trucks are not only growing in market share, they're also more profitable than cars. A crossover on the same platform as a sedan retails for thousands more, despite similar components. It's one of the reasons we've seen automakers rapidly shifting production of their sedans and hatchbacks to Mexico, where cheap labor preserves the thin profit margins on these inexpensive vehicles. But as the market continues to shift in the United States, Mexico is getting burned by its lack of product diversity. The country's auto exports, which are heavy on cars, suffered a 16-percent drop last month, Automotive News reports. In total, year-over-year exports fell from 233,515 to 197,020 last month, while year-to-date exports are down by 7.4 percent, from 922,029 to 854,118. The number one culprit? America – which usually accounts for 75 percent of Mexico's exports – and its appetite for crossovers and pickup trucks bolstered by cheap gas prices. While Mexico does build some light truck models – AN specifically calls out the Ram 2500, Honda HR-V, GMC Sierra, and Toyota Tacoma as export leaders – the vast majority of vehicles rolling out of its factories are sedans and hatchbacks. In fact, the three biggest drops in Mexican exports came from companies whose south of the border factories only build cars – Ford (Fusion/Lincoln MKZ and Fiesta), Mazda (Mazda3), and Volkswagen (Golf and Jetta). Mexican Automotive Industry Association President Eduardo Solis told AN the export shortfall will likely be sorted out sooner rather than later, thanks to a pair of new factories – a Kia car factory and an Audi SUV plant – that are coming online by year's end. The two facilities will add around 100,000 vehicles to the country's export totals, which Solis said should leave the industry on the verge of breaking another export record in 2016. But how sustainable will these record-breaking years be? Slapping an "Hecho en Mexico" sticker on a new German SUV won't be enough to change the fact that Mexico's product mix is tilted too heavily towards body styles that are not growing in volume. Mexico's record-breaking export years probably aren't at an end, but we'd argue they're certainly under threat. News Source: Automotive News - sub. req.Image Credit: Omar Torres / AFP / Getty Images Plants/Manufacturing Ford GMC Honda Mazda RAM Volkswagen Truck Crossover SUV Mexico

VW decides against active-cooling system for e-Golf lithium battery

When the 2015 VW e-Golf was introduced at the LA Auto Show last year, VW said it would come with a water-cooled battery. During the Detroit Auto Show, when the car was trotted out again, VW released a new press release that stripped out the "water-cooled" language, but this change went unnoticed. During a recent VW event in Germany, a friend from Green Car Reports realized that the battery on display did not seem to have any water-cooling mechanisms. That set us off on a bit of a sleuthing and we have now learned that VW is not going to include any active cooling in the upcoming e-Golf. In fact, the company is entirely confident that this car - because of what it's designed to do - doesn't need it. "The need for a cooling system wasn't there" - VW's Darryll Harrison VW has been working on an electrified Golf for ages now, and so changes to the plan are to be expected. But battery cooling is vitally important not just to keep the car operating properly but because when things get too hot, there can be serious public relations problems. Nissan began testing a new battery chemistry for the Leaf in 2013 after an uproar from warm-weather EV drivers in Arizona who were experiencing worse-than-expected battery performance. The Leaf has always used an air-cooled battery, which is another way to say that there is no active cooling system (more details here). Tesla CEO Elon Musk once said this approach is "primitive." So, why is VW following the same path? We asked Darryll Harrison, VW US's manager of brand public relations west, for more information, and he told AutoblogGreen that VW engineers discovered through a lot of testing of the Golf Mk6 EV prototypes, that battery performance was not impacted by temperatures when using the right battery chemistry. That chemistry, it turns out, is lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) in cells from Panasonic. These cells had "the lowest self-warming tendency and the lowest memory effect of all cells tested," Harrison said. He added that VW engineers tested the NMC cells in places like Death Valley and Arizona and found they didn't warm very quickly either through operation, charging (including during fast charging) or through high ambient temps. "The need for a cooling system wasn't there," Harrison said.