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U.S. tariff threat hits European automakers' stocks

FRANKFURT, Germany — A U.S. warning that it may introduce tariffs on foreign auto imports hit shares in German carmakers BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen on Thursday, which together have a more than 90 percent share of North America's premium car market. Washington said on Wednesday it had launched an investigation into whether car and truck imports are a national security issue due to signs they had damaged the U.S. auto industry. That could lead to new U.S. tariffs — up to 25 percent — similar to those imposed on imported steel and aluminum in March. BMW and Daimler shares fell as much as 3.1 percent in early Thursday trading, while Volkswagen's dropped as much as 2.5 percent. "(U.S. President) Donald Trump is obviously not thinking about how to prevent a trade war. Import duties on cars would be a nightmare for the German auto industry and would lead to a massive sales impact," said Thomas Altmann at Frankfurt-based asset manager QC Partners. BMW on Thursday condemned the move to consider tariffs. "The BMW Group is committed to free trade worldwide. Barrier-free access to markets is therefore a key factor not only for our business model, but also for growth welfare and employment throughout the global economy," it said. Daimler, which makes Mercedes-Benz cars, and Volkswagen, which makes upmarket Audis and Porsches, were not immediately available for comment. German carmakers produced 804,000 cars at local factories in the United States and exported 657,000 German-made cars into North America last year, according to German auto industry association VDA. China took pains on Thursday to welcome German firms and investments, with Premier Li Keqiang talking up relations after a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. BMW and Mercedes have expanded production capacity in the United States, but BMW, Audi, Volkswagen and Daimler have also invested billions to build new factories in Mexico in the hope of selling locally produced cars into the United States. German carmakers hiked vehicle production in Mexico by 46 percent to 620,000 cars last year, while production levels inside the United States fell by 6 percent to 804,000 cars because of a shift to Mexico, according to the VDA. BMW has its biggest factory worldwide in Spartanburg, South Carolina, and is the largest vehicle exporter among all the carmakers in the United States measured by value of goods exported. More than 70 percent of BMW's U.S.-made cars are exported.

Automakers not currently promoting EVs are probably doomed

Okay, let's be honest. The sky isn't falling – gas prices are. In fact, some experts say that prices at the pump will remain depressed for the next decade. Consumers have flocked to SUVs and CUVs, reversing the upward trend in US fuel economy seen over the last several years. A sudden push into electric vehicles seems ridiculous when gas guzzlers are selling so well. Make hay while the sun shines, right? A quick glance at some facts and figures provides evidence that the automakers currently doubling down on internal combustion probably have some rocky years ahead of them. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is a prime example of a volume manufacturer devoted to incremental gains for existing powertrains. Though FCA will kill off some of its more fuel-efficient models, part of its business plan involves replacing four- and five-speed transmissions with eight- and nine-speed units, yielding a fuel efficiency boost in the vicinity of ten percent over the next few years. Recent developments by battery startups have led some to suggest that efficiency and capacity could increase by over 100 percent in the same time. Research and development budgets paint a grim picture for old guard companies like Fiat Chrysler: In 2014, FCA spent about $1,026 per car sold on R&D, compared with about $24,783 per car sold for Tesla. To be fair, FCA can't be expected to match Tesla's efforts when its entry-level cars list for little more than half that much. But even more so than R&D, the area in which newcomers like Tesla have the industry licked is infrastructure. We often forget that our vehicles are mostly useless metal boxes without access to the network of fueling stations that keep them rolling. While EVs can always be plugged in at home, their proliferation depends on a similar network of charging stations that can allow for prolonged travel. Tesla already has 597 of its 480-volt Superchargers installed worldwide, and that figure will continue to rise. Porsche has also proposed a new 800-volt "Turbo Charging Station" to support the production version of its Mission E concept, and perhaps other VW Auto Group vehicles. As EVs grow in popularity, investment in these proprietary networks will pay off — who would buy a Chevy if the gas stations served only Ford owners? If anyone missed the importance of infrastructure, it's Toyota.

Volkswagen decides to keep Lamborghini and Ducati, transfers Bentley to Audi

Investors in the market for a high-end Italian manufacturer that peddles performance will need to keep looking. Volkswagen announced it will hang on to Lamborghini and Ducati in the foreseeable future. Executives in Wolfsburg, Germany, are making far-reaching changes to the Volkswagen Group to reboot it with a big focus on technology. Credible rumors claimed that the people in charge of the carmaker wanted to carve out Lamborghini — which owns Ducati — and ultimately list it, or at least a chunk of it, on the stock market in order to fast-track the group's electrification strategy. Going electric is expensive, so selling Lamborghini would have helped fund the expansion, and high-octane supercars don't easily go hand-in-hand with zero-emissions cars. "Volkswagen needs to change from a collection of valuable brands and fascinating combustion-engine products that thrill customers with superb engineering to a digital company that reliably operates millions of mobility devices worldwide," summed up Herbert Diess, the group's boss, during a September 2020 meeting. His team ultimately decided not to fully divest both brands. It's too early to tell whether part of Lamborghini will be listed on the stock market, as some insiders have suggested, or if those plans are off the table, too. Changes are coming to Bentley as well. While it's not being spun off either, it will fall under the Audi umbrella starting on March 1, 2021. Volkswagen explained linking the two companies will "allow for synergies to be achieved as part of the electrification strategy of the two premium brands," a statement which suggests they will share a growing number of components during the 2020s. Unverified rumors claim that Bentley will notably get its own version of an ultra-luxurious electric SUV code-named Landjet that Audi is currently developing. We've reached out to Bentley for more details, and we'll update this story if we learn more. Bugatti's future wasn't mentioned in the release; unconfirmed reports suggest it will be traded for a stake in Croatian start-up Rimac. Volkswagen's supervisory board also reaffirmed its support for Diess, who was appointed CEO in 2018 and who has played a significant role in the company's transformation. Finally, the board approved the development of what a statement refers to a future leading electric vehicle sold by the Volkswagen brand that will be developed and manufactured in Wolfsburg.