Volkswagon Bus 1972 on 2040-cars

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Automakers not currently promoting EVs are probably doomed

Okay, let's be honest. The sky isn't falling – gas prices are. In fact, some experts say that prices at the pump will remain depressed for the next decade. Consumers have flocked to SUVs and CUVs, reversing the upward trend in US fuel economy seen over the last several years. A sudden push into electric vehicles seems ridiculous when gas guzzlers are selling so well. Make hay while the sun shines, right? A quick glance at some facts and figures provides evidence that the automakers currently doubling down on internal combustion probably have some rocky years ahead of them. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is a prime example of a volume manufacturer devoted to incremental gains for existing powertrains. Though FCA will kill off some of its more fuel-efficient models, part of its business plan involves replacing four- and five-speed transmissions with eight- and nine-speed units, yielding a fuel efficiency boost in the vicinity of ten percent over the next few years. Recent developments by battery startups have led some to suggest that efficiency and capacity could increase by over 100 percent in the same time. Research and development budgets paint a grim picture for old guard companies like Fiat Chrysler: In 2014, FCA spent about $1,026 per car sold on R&D, compared with about $24,783 per car sold for Tesla. To be fair, FCA can't be expected to match Tesla's efforts when its entry-level cars list for little more than half that much. But even more so than R&D, the area in which newcomers like Tesla have the industry licked is infrastructure. We often forget that our vehicles are mostly useless metal boxes without access to the network of fueling stations that keep them rolling. While EVs can always be plugged in at home, their proliferation depends on a similar network of charging stations that can allow for prolonged travel. Tesla already has 597 of its 480-volt Superchargers installed worldwide, and that figure will continue to rise. Porsche has also proposed a new 800-volt "Turbo Charging Station" to support the production version of its Mission E concept, and perhaps other VW Auto Group vehicles. As EVs grow in popularity, investment in these proprietary networks will pay off — who would buy a Chevy if the gas stations served only Ford owners? If anyone missed the importance of infrastructure, it's Toyota.

VW could look outside its own ranks for next CEO

Companies have two options when coming up with succession plans – hire within, or go outside its ranks. Either choice comes with advantages and disadvantages, to be sure. Hiring within means generally getting someone familiar with the company and its culture and traditions, while going outside is ideal if you're looking to shake things up and bring in fresh ideas. It's unclear which avenue the Volkswagen Group will go down when it comes time to replace its head man, Herr Professor Doctor Doctor Herr Martin Winterkorn, but he isn't ruling out a trip outside of Wolfsburg. Winterkorn has already given the reins of the VW brand to former BMW board member Herbert Diess, while Andreas Renschler, a former Daimler board member, is heading up VW's truck group. Now, Winterkorn has made some statements to a German weekly that indicate the most important thing about his successor isn't necessarily his (or her, though no women appear to be on the short-list) previous employer, Motoring.com.au is reporting, so much as his qualities as a leader and an engineering background. "A Volkswagen boss has to have a big affinity to our products. He needs to be close to customers and he needs to have a relationship with dealers," Winterkorn told Stern. "Like always, it depends on the personality and it also helps if the candidate is an engineer." Motoring throws out a couple of potential candidates from within, including Porsche boss Mathias Muller, Audi Chairman Rupert Stadler and engineering guru Ulrich Hackenberg, in addition to both Diess and Renschler. And while each candidate has a lot of potential, the only thing that's guaranteed right now is what Winterkorn has already said: "The decision about who will succeed me is not an easy one for the supervisory board."

EPA message to automakers: You're on notice

With top administrator Gina McCarthy speaking about the "moral obligation for climate action" on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency announced it would ramp up its oversight of the auto industry in the wake of Volkswagen's emissions cheating. In a letter sent to manufacturers Friday, the agency said it would begin examining cars to see whether they contained defeat devices "in addition to the standard emissions test cycles." "We are putting vehicle manufacturers on notice." Exactly how the agency plans to test for these devices – which are not devices per se, but algorithms contained in millions of lines of software code that govern vehicle functions – remains unclear. Christopher Grundler, the director of the EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality, divulged few details in how the agency would uncover so-called defeat devices used by cheaters. "Not today – or actually ever – I'm not going to be describing what new ways we'll be using to detect these defeat devices." Later, he said engineers will have to "come up with some clever ways to do this." The only insight he offered was that the EPA, California Air Resources Board, and Environment Canada would partner on testing more cars for emissions and anomalies. Grundler also said the EPA would diversify its testing fleet. In addition to relying on vehicles provided by manufacturers, the federal agency will now also borrow cars from "private citizens" and utilize rental cars for tests. "We are putting vehicle manufacturers on notice," he said. Joint investigations between EPA and CARB have "been very successful in protecting human health and the environment," said Janet McCabe, the agency's acting administrator in the Office of Air and Radiation. "But we also know, and the Volkswagen violations before us now make it clear, we need to adapt and step up our oversight." That may include an increase in on-road testing in addition to the five emissions tests now more relied upon. The EPA owns and maintains 23 portable emissions-monitoring systems like the one used by West Virginia University researchers who first detected elevated levels of nitrogen oxide emissions from two Volkswagen diesel vehicles. Right now, they're almost exclusively deployed to monitor emission from heavy-duty vehicles, whose NOx emissions "dwarf" the amount produced by light-duty vehicles, which produce less than 2 percent of the total, according to the agency's figures.