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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

VW pondering low-cost sub-brand for China?

More detail is being sketched into the Volkswagen Group's plan to launch a low-cost brand for emerging markets. Late last year a German report quoted a VW rep saying that the brand has been interested in building a no-frills car, the kind that would challenge Dacia and Datsun, for a while. With both Proton and Suzuki effectively out of the partnership picture, a report in Reuters suggests VW could go straight to China, developing a car with its joint venture partners and building and selling it there.
Officially, company CEO Martin Winterkorn said the issue of a model for emerging markets would be decided this year but VW isn't any closer to confirming any kind of plan for a car in its portfolio underneath the Up!, remarking to Reuters about the China possibility, "That's an issue we're currently looking at."

More German automakers may be afoul of US emission standards

Volkswagen has plenty of smoke to share, and that may mean fire for other German automakers that make diesel vehicles, says Automotive News. Earlier this month, European Federation for Transport and Environment said that BMW, Daimler's Mercedes-Benz and General Motor's Opel division are among other automakers that may have equipped their vehicles' diesel engines with similar software as VW's. That software was found to reduce emissions while a car is being tested for emissions and shuts down emissions-control systems during normal use. The European environmental group used data from the International Council on Clean Transportation. Automotive News notes that the European environmental group put out its own report earlier this month, before the VW scandal broke loose, but the report was pretty much overlooked. Now, VW is under fire after it was discovered that 2.0-liter diesel engines in the VW Jetta and Golf, and Audi A3, may be programmed to game the emissions system. VW sold almost a half-million diesel vehicles in the US during the past six years. Both BMW and Mercedes-Benz told Automotive News that the issue that befell VW doesn't apply to their diesel vehicles. Earlier this week, Volkswagen admitted its car ran the sneaky software, while the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has started a probe on the company. VW is setting aside more than $7 billion to pay for the alleged violations. Meanwhile, US taxpayers may have spent as much as $51 million a year to pay for subsidies related to VW's diesel vehicle sales in 2009 alone, according to the Los Angeles Times.