2014 Volkswagen Passat Sel Premium on 2040-cars

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Automakers face reality of EVs' cost — to jobs, and their bottom line

Related: We obsessively covered the Frankfurt Motor Show — here's our complete coverage FRANKFURT, Germany — European car bosses gathering for the Frankfurt auto show are beginning to address the realities of mass vehicle electrification, and its consequences for jobs and profit, their minds focused by government pledges to outlaw the combustion engine. As the latest such announcement by China added momentum to a push for zero-emissions motoring, Daimler, Volkswagen and PSA Group gave details about their electric programs that could give policymakers some pause. Planned electric Mercedes models will initially be just half as profitable as conventional alternatives, Daimler warned — forcing the group to find savings by outsourcing more component manufacturing, which may in turn threaten German jobs. "In-house production is almost irrelevant to the consumer," Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche told reporters on the eve of the Frankfurt Motor Show, in the midst of a German election campaign in which automotive jobs have loomed large. The company set a target of saving 4 billion euros ($4.8 billion) by 2025 to help fund the cost of its electric cars. "Daimler is the first company to state explicitly how much electric vehicles are going to hurt margins," said Bernstein analyst Max Warburton. "It was brave to go first — but of course it won't be the last." Volkswagen, for its part, said it was seeking new global supplier contracts to source 50 billion euros ($60 billion) of electric car content including batteries, which are not yet manufactured competitively in Europe. "A company like Volkswagen must lead, not follow," Chief Executive Matthias Mueller told reporters. VW diesel emissions-cheating exposed by U.S. regulators in 2015 triggered global public outrage, dozens more investigations into test-rigging by the wider industry and a push by some lawmakers to ban diesel and eventually all engines. TIGHTENING NOOSE Tesla shares jumped nearly 6 percent on Monday after a Chinese minister said it was a question of when, not if, Beijing bans fossil-fuel cars, tightening the noose around the combustion engine. France and Britain have promised its outright abolition by 2040. But PSA, the maker of Peugeots and Citroens, said it was concerned about the risks if consumers were left behind in the rush, and a new generation of battery cars does not sell.

VW air rule violation allegations 'stunning,' $18B fine unlikely

The big automotive news today was the US federal allegations that VW quietly and illegally installed software on approximately 482,000 diesel vehicles sold in the United States so that they would not return substandard results on government emissions tests. To say the least, this is potentially a very big deal. You can read the details of the government's allegations here. The problem seems to be with the NOx trap. Sam Abuelsamid, a former AutoblogGreen editor who is now a senior research analyst at Navigant Research's Transportation Efficiencies program, told me that there were some hints that VW's diesel emissions strategy had issues a while back. The vehicles affected by today's announcement are all equipped with the 2-liter, 4-cylinder TDI, he said. They all have the lean NOx (nitrogen oxides) trap, whereas all other current modern diesels use urea to treat NOx emissions. "When VW launched those vehicles, I went to the TDI launch program in Santa Monica and asked them if they were going to put the diesel engine into the Tiguan because that would be an ideal application," he said. "They said no, because it would be too heavy. Turns out, the NOx trap was enough to meet the emissions standards in the smaller cars, but not the Tiguan. That seems to be where the problem is, in the NOx trap. All the other big VW and Audi diesels, they use urea, just like BMW and Mercedes do." Abuelsamid added that, in California, to do an emissions test, testers don't stick a probe up the exhaust, as you would suspect. Instead, they just do a visual test to make sure nothing was tampered with and then plug a scanner into the OBD-II port to read the codes. The news today basically says that the cars were programmed to send out false codes, giving readings that testers are looking for instead of what's actually going on. "That's the background, as far as I know at this point," he said. This could be "a black eye on the auto industry." - John O'Dell Speaking at the AltCar Expo in Santa Monica just hours after the news first broke this morning, Edmunds.com's John O'Dell said the Fed's allegations were "stunning." The idea that VW might have gamed the system, he said, "underscores how important EPA clean air numbers are, that a company would allegedly stoop to this to try and meet them. Obviously, people are paying attention to that sort of thing.

Elon Musk says VW scandal proves limits of fossil fuel cars

Tesla Motors chief Elon Musk didn't appear to mince words when commenting on Volkswagen's diesel-emissions scandal when making comments at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy conference in Berlin this week, according to Bloomberg News. Musk called the news of scandal "obviously bad." He also used the opportunity to note that he thought the German automotive industry may be lacking when it came to getting its powertrains to cut emissions. Pretty tough talk in Berlin. Musk did note that, when it came to clean electricity generation, Germany was ahead of many countries. But he also used the occasion to note that global industries could do a better job addressing "the chemical constituency" of the world's air and oceans. Musk also spoke to the Belgian press about the VW scandal this week. Asked if people might lose their faith in green technology, Musk said that what the scandal shows is that "we've reached the limit of what's possible with diesel and gasoline. And so, the time, I think, has come to move to a new generation of technology." You can see his comments in the video above, starting at 1:12. Musk made these comments as the automotive industry reacts to news that Volkswagen tried to game the system by manipulating its diesel-powered vehicles to meet worldwide emissions regulations. VW has set aside $7.3 billion to address the issue, and has estimated that at least 11 million vehicles may have been programmed to cheat emissions mandates. As a result of the scandal, VW CEO Martin Winterkorn has stepped down and Porsche chief executive officer Matthias Muller has taken over. For those keeping track, VW sold almost 51,000 diesel vehicles in the US through the first eight months of the year. That is about eight percent less than a year earlier but is probably about three times the number of Tesla Model S electric vehicles Musk sold in the US (we say probably because Tesla discloses neither monthly nor country-specific sales). So, while this may not be a case of diesel envy, Musk did have a pretty wide-open shot to tweak VW and its reliance on diesel technology. News Source: Bloomberg News, EV AnnexImage Credit: AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu Government/Legal Green Tesla Volkswagen Emissions Diesel Vehicles Electric vw diesel scandal