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Import pickup truck-killing Chicken Tax to be repealed?

After over 50 years, the so-called Chicken Tax may finally be going the way of the dodo. Two pending trade deals with countries in the Pacific Rim and Europe potentially could open the US auto market up to imported trucks, if the measures pass. Although, it still might be a while before you can own that Volkswagen Amarok or Toyota Hilux, if ever. The 25-percent import tariff that the Chicken Tax imposes on foreign trucks essentially makes the things all but impossible to sell one profitably in the US, which lends a distinct advantage to domestic pickups. Both the Trans-Pacific Partnership with 12 counties and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union would finally end the charge. According to Automotive News though, don't expect new pickups to flood the market, at least not immediately. These deals might roll back the tariff gradually over time, and in the case of Japan, it could be as long as 25 years before fully free trade. Furthermore, Thailand, a major truck builder in Asia, isn't currently part of the deal, and any new models here would still need to meet safety and emissions rules, as well. Automotive News gauged the very early intentions of several automakers with foreign-built trucks, and they weren't necessarily champing at the bit to start imports. Toyota thinks the Hilux sits between the Tundra and Tacoma, and Mazda doesn't think the BT-50 fits its image here. Also, VW doesn't necessarily want to bring the Amarok over from Hannover. There is previous precedent for companies at least considering bringing in pickup trucks after the Chicken Tax's demise, though. The Pacific free trade deal could be done as soon as this fall, while the EU one is likely further out, according to Automotive News. Given enough time, the more accessible ports could allow some new trucks to enter the market.

Russian auto boomtown grinds to halt over Ukraine sanctions

Thousands of auto workers have been furloughed and food prices are soaring as Western sanctions pummel the small Russian city of Kaluga and its flagship foreign carmakers, with more sanctions likely to come. The Kaluga region, 190 kilometers (120 miles) southwest of Moscow, says it has attracted more than 1.3 trillion roubles ($15 billion) in investment, mostly foreign, since 2006. But Western sanctions imposed in recent weeks after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine have exacerbated lingering component shortages and halted production at two flagship car plants, Germany's Volkswagen and Sweden's Volvo. A third, the PSMA Rus plant that is a joint venture between Stellantis and Mitsubishi and employs 2,000, may halt production soon due to a lack of parts, Stellantis' chief executive said last Thursday. "It is not clear what will happen. They don't give us any concrete information," said Pavel Terpugov, a welder at the PSMA Rus plant. Terpugov said he needs twice as much money to buy groceries than before the sanctions. Analysts have forecast Russian inflation could soar to 24% this year, while the economy may shrink to 2009 levels. The United States and Europe are weighing more sanctions against Russia after Ukraine accused Russian forces of civilian killings in northern Ukraine, where a mass grave was found in Bucha, outside Kyiv. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" and the Kremlin categorically denied any accusations related to the murder of civilians, including in Bucha. One source of hope for some in Kaluga, with its 325,000 residents, is the West may be reluctant to hurt its own companies. "Does it make sense to impose sanctions on its own plant and lose money?" said Valery Uglov, an auto mechanic at the Volkswagen plant. "Does it make sense to lose the Russian market?" "We hope to return to work as soon as possible and everyone will have confidence in the future again," Uglov said. Volkswagen, whose factory employs 4,200 people, in early March suspended operations. A spokeswoman said production remained frozen. Volvo Group, which employs over 600 people to build trucks, also suspended production. Even before the sanctions, Russian car sales had contracted from 2.8 million units from when the Volkswagen factory opened in 2007 to 1.67 million units last year, damaged by both sanctions after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.