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Volkswagen Diesels: Buy, sell, or hold?

Everyone who owns or has remotely considered a Volkswagen diesel over the past 45 days has tried to figure out the right formula. Is it worth buying after the recall? If I own one, should I sell it? How will it perform if I want to keep it? Questions create doubts, and doubts create a stunning lack of activity when it comes to the new and used car market. I seriously doubt Volkswagen will be rolling out its 2016 TDI models anytime soon. The company already failed to create a fix nearly a year ago and has spent an unusually long amount of time trying to get the formula right. There's also the fact that it rescinded its EPA application for 2016 models. I can't provide the ultimate oracle's guide on whether any recalled Volkswagen diesel will fall under the "good value" perceptions of car buyers. But I do believe four factors in particular will be largely independent of the outcome of that recall, and they're what you should pay particular attention to if you plan on buying any Volkswagen diesel – new or used. 1. Demand Creating Bad Supply There are a large number of car buyers who believe that they can zig while the marketplace tells them to zag. Unfortunately, those are the ones that get sent to the slaughter once articles like the one linked above proclaim, "resale values are down 13 percent." These heavily biased write-ups ignore the fact both the supply and demand of new and used recalled Volkswagen diesels are no longer operating in that free market. The supply side is obvious since the EPA has put a stop-sale on all Volkswagen diesels. However, on the demand side, those Volkswagen dealers who have exclusive access to off-lease vehicles and certified pre-owned programs for 2012 and newer VW diesels are now sitting on the sidelines with all those cars. When your best players no longer play, consumers don't come to the ballpark. What exists right now is a lot like a professional sports strike where the talent sits out until a collective agreement is reached. When your best players no longer play, consumers don't come to the ballpark. The marketplace only offers scabs that can play an inferior game. In the wholesale car business, the scabs are salvage vehicles that are wrecked or flood damaged, vehicles that can't be put under a CPO program due to frame damage and lemon law requirements, and the wholesale repossession market. All of these substandard vehicles make up the new supply, the collective underbelly of low-end quality in the used car marketplace.

After VW scandal, new emissions tests may drive up diesel prices

However much Volkswagen has to aside to address the flak from the company's ongoing diesel-emissions scandal, it could still be less expensive than the cost of making diesels realistically adhere to stricter emissions-testing mandates. New rules are likely to be put into place as a result of the revelations that as many as 11 million VW diesel vehicles were programmed to game the emissions-testing system by triggering artificially low emissions levels. There's a potential problem, though, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA). Governments around the world are calling for more intense tests that would better simulate real-world driving conditions. Some of the mandates suggested by the European Union could make the process a costly one, however. And that would boost diesel-vehicle production costs to the point that the lower refueling costs via cheaper fuel and better fuel economy won't be able to justify the higher purchase price. According to Reuters, the ACEA issued a statement that said: The automobile industry agrees with the need for emissions to more closely reflect real-world conditions, and has been calling for proposals for years. However, it is important to proceed in a way which allows manufacturers to plan and implement the necessary changes, without jeopardizing the role of diesel as one of the key pillars for fulfilling future CO2 targets." Diesels have long been pushed in Europe because the lower carbon dioxide from the better fuel economy was thought to outweigh the additional nitrous oxides spit out by the oil burners. The push for "clean diesel" in recent years was supposed to reduce NOx emissions as well, but the VW story shows that this wasn't always the case. Rejiggered testing in Europe may start as early next year, and results may be available as soon as late 2017, but the whole point may become moot if automakers cut back on making diesel vehicles. The French government is already talking about eliminating diesel-vehicle subsidies in the wake of the scandal. Still, while new-diesel vehicle prices may rise, used-diesel prices may be falling. US auction prices for VW diesel vehicles are already down about 13 percent. UK diesel-vehicle prices have also declined, just not as much. Related Videos:

Volkswagen reportedly to name Matthias Muller CEO

Porsche chief executive officer Matthias Muller is expected to be named CEO of Volkswagen AG, the Wall Street Journal and other sources reported Thursday morning. Muller, 62, has led Porsche since Oct. 1, 2010, and jumpstarted the sports-car brand's expansion around the world. He replaces Martin Winkerkorn, who stepped down Wednesday amid the company's worsening diesel scandal. At least three more executives are also expected to be fired, including Volkswagen's US chief and the heads of Audi and Porsche research and development. Both brands are divisions of VW. A US spokesman wouldn't confirm the reports. An official announcement is expected at VW's board meeting on Friday. Muller's ascension caps a stunning week of turmoil for Volkswagen, which manipulated software to make its diesel-powered vehicles appear cleaner during testing that they are in real-world driving. The charges were revealed last week by the EPA, which cited the work of researchers at West Virginia University. About 482,000 vehicles are affected in the United States, which will be subject to recall, and VW estimates about 11 million of its vehicles around the world have the rigged software. The well-regarded Muller was viewed as a front-runner for the job even before Winterkorn stepped down. Before helming Porsche, he oversaw all vehicle projects globally for VW from 2007-2010. Previously, he was in charge of the Audi and Lamborghini product lines, and earlier in his career was responsible for the Audi A3 program in the 1990s. He joined Audi in 1977. He's trained as a toolmaker and studied information technology in Munich. His last name is sometimes spelled Mueller in English. Muller faces immediate challenges as he takes over VW's sprawling 78-year-old industrial empire, including recalls and regulatory actions around the world. In the US alone, the company faces a fine of up to $18 billion. VW, an industrial symbol of Germany, is also far larger than any unit Muller has run in his career. While Porsche sold 189,849 vehicles in 2014 globally, it's one of many VW brands. Collectively they sold 5.04 million vehicles through the first six months of this year, making Volkswagen the world's largest automaker. Related Video: