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EPA message to automakers: You're on notice

With top administrator Gina McCarthy speaking about the "moral obligation for climate action" on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency announced it would ramp up its oversight of the auto industry in the wake of Volkswagen's emissions cheating. In a letter sent to manufacturers Friday, the agency said it would begin examining cars to see whether they contained defeat devices "in addition to the standard emissions test cycles." "We are putting vehicle manufacturers on notice." Exactly how the agency plans to test for these devices – which are not devices per se, but algorithms contained in millions of lines of software code that govern vehicle functions – remains unclear. Christopher Grundler, the director of the EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality, divulged few details in how the agency would uncover so-called defeat devices used by cheaters. "Not today – or actually ever – I'm not going to be describing what new ways we'll be using to detect these defeat devices." Later, he said engineers will have to "come up with some clever ways to do this." The only insight he offered was that the EPA, California Air Resources Board, and Environment Canada would partner on testing more cars for emissions and anomalies. Grundler also said the EPA would diversify its testing fleet. In addition to relying on vehicles provided by manufacturers, the federal agency will now also borrow cars from "private citizens" and utilize rental cars for tests. "We are putting vehicle manufacturers on notice," he said. Joint investigations between EPA and CARB have "been very successful in protecting human health and the environment," said Janet McCabe, the agency's acting administrator in the Office of Air and Radiation. "But we also know, and the Volkswagen violations before us now make it clear, we need to adapt and step up our oversight." That may include an increase in on-road testing in addition to the five emissions tests now more relied upon. The EPA owns and maintains 23 portable emissions-monitoring systems like the one used by West Virginia University researchers who first detected elevated levels of nitrogen oxide emissions from two Volkswagen diesel vehicles. Right now, they're almost exclusively deployed to monitor emission from heavy-duty vehicles, whose NOx emissions "dwarf" the amount produced by light-duty vehicles, which produce less than 2 percent of the total, according to the agency's figures.

Car companies may need to start curbing model proliferation

Looking at the current automotive landscape, especially from German makers, you quickly get the impression that less definitely isn't more. BMW alone offers its 3 Series platform in practically every segment possible, including the regular sedan and 4 Series Gran Coupe, which would seem to be direct competitors. Porsche might be the winner, though, with 20 different variants of the 911 listed for sale on its US website. However, some of this model madness might be reaching an end as companies begin cutting back spending or shifting money to other priorities.
According to Yahoo Finance, the offerings from the German automakers are up 25 percent over the past three years to over 200 models in Europe. The peak is expected to come around 2018 at 230 separate vehicles, according to consulting company PwC.
Amazingly, BMW, which is among the poster children for this model explosion, might be changing its tune. "I'm sure there will be points in the future where we look at certain cars and say, 'Maybe we need to think differently now,'" said head of sales Ian Robertson in an interview, according to Yahoo Finance. The statement certainly sounds shocking coming from a company rumored to have 23 front-wheel-drive vehicles all using a single platform on the way.

Which will Dieselgate hurt more, Volkswagen or US diesels?

The most damning response to the news Volkswagen skirted emissions regulations for its diesel models may have actually come from the Los Angeles Times. On Saturday, the Times published an editorial titled "Did Volkswagen cheat?" The answer was undoubtedly yes. When you can't drive down Santa Monica Boulevard without seeing an average of one VW TDI per block, the following words are pretty striking: "... Americans should be outraged at the company's cynical and deliberate efforts to violate one of this country's most important environmental laws." VW has successfully cultivated a strong, environmentally conscious reputation for its TDI Clean Diesel technology, especially in states where emissions are strictly controlled. A statement like that is like blood all over the opinion section of the Sunday paper. The effect on VW's business, even Germany's financial health, was already felt Monday when the company's shares plummeted 23 percent in morning trading. The statement on Sunday from VW CEO Dr. Martin Winterkorn says "trust" three times. That probably wasn't enough in nine sentences. Writers over the weekend have compared VW's crisis to one at General Motors 30 years ago, when it was the largest seller of diesel-powered passenger cars until warranty claims over an inadequate design and ill-informed technicians effectively pulled the plug on the technology at GM. In a sense, VW is in the same boat as GM because it has fired a huge blow into its own reputation and that of diesels in passenger cars. And just as automakers like Jaguar Land Rover, BMW and, ironically, GM, were getting comfortable with it again in the US. VW of America was already knee-deep in its other problems this year. Its core Jetta and Passat models are aging and it needs to wait more than a year for competitive SUVs that American buyers want. The TDIs were the only continuous bright spot in the line and on the sales charts. Even as fuel prices fell and buyers shunned hybrids, VW managed to succeed with diesels and show that Americans actually care about and accept the technology again. Fervent TDI supporters might actually lobby for that maximum $18 billion fine to VW. I've personally convinced a number of people to look at a TDI instead of a hybrid. Perhaps not so much for stop-and-go traffic, but I know buyers who liked the idea that a TDI drove like a normal car and wasn't packed with batteries.