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November U.S. new car sales mixed as automakers deepen discounts

DETROIT — Major automakers posted mixed U.S. November new vehicle sales on Friday and predicted a competitive December as they rushed to sell vehicles and boost their numbers before 2017 ends. Automakers are trying to sell down 2017 model-year vehicles, offering high discounts to consumers as the year-end nears. In 2016, the industry reported record annual sales of 17.55 million units. According to consultancies J.D. Power and LMC, discounts have been above 10 percent of the average transaction price for 16 of the past 17 months, a level experts say is unhealthy and unsustainable. The November sales results come as the National Automobile Dealers Association said on Friday it expects new vehicle sales to decline to 16.7 million units in 2018, after dropping to 17.1 million for the full year in 2017. If that forecast comes true, the race to move new vehicles off dealers' lots will only intensify next year. Brandon Mason, a director at PwC's automotive practice, said a worrying trend for the industry was a rising number of subprime loans. He said subprime levels are at just over 20 percent of originations, against more than 30 percent prior to the Great Recession, but recent increases remain a concern. "That's a bit of a red flag," Mason said. "It's something to keep an eye on as we move into 2018." November results by automaker: General Motors: Sales fell 2.9 percent, with sales to consumers flat against the same month in 2016. Much of the decrease was driven by lower fleet sales. GM said strong SUV and crossover sales pushed its average transaction price for the month above $37,000 for the first time. The level of unsold cars, which has been a concern for analysts and the industry, rose slightly to 83 days' supply, from 80 days at the end of October. "More vehicles are sold in December than any other month, and we are very well positioned because we have momentum in so many segments, but especially in crossovers," said Kurt McNeil, U.S. vice president of sales operations. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles: Fleet sales are low-margin, and FCA in particular has targeted a significant reduction in this type of sale in 2017. It posted a 4 percent overall decrease in sales for November, but fleet sales were down 25 percent while sales to consumers were up 2 percent on the year. Ford: The No. 2 U.S. automaker reported a 6.7 percent increase for the month, with fleet sales up nearly 26 percent and retail sales 1.3 percent higher than in November 2016.

Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

2019 Subaru Forester Sport vs 2019 Toyota RAV4 Adventure: How they compare

The 2019 Toyota RAV4 is not only completely redesigned, but reimagined as well. As we detailed in our first drive review, the new RAV4 ditches the more car-like and uber-utilitarian nature of its predecessor for something that's more SUV-like and characterful. It's a new direction exemplified in the RAV4 Adventure trim, which specifically targets those folks who plan to actually take their compact crossover to the great outdoors. People who will get it dirty, use the extra ground clearance and store things on the roof. You know, the sort of people who would consider the 2019 Subaru Forester. It too is redesigned for 2019, but its transformation is almost unnoticeable compared to the RAV4's. Forester customers were obviously quite happy with the way things were. We got a chance to drive both the 2019 RAV4 and 2019 Forester back-to-back last week both on-road and off-road, so let's take a look at how they compare, including a look at their on-paper specs. 2019 Toyota RAV4 Adventure View 31 Photos Performance and fuel economy The Forester got a new, more powerful 2.5-liter flat-four engine for 2019, and it now comes standard with a continuously variable transmission. It produces 182 horsepower and 176 pound-feet of torque, which is pretty much mid-pack among compact crossovers. Crucially, though, throttle response is so sharp that it makes the Forester actually feel quicker than it is when accelerating from a stop — a sensation enhanced even further by selecting the Sport Sharp mode button on the steering wheel. However, in either mode, the engine's remarkable power reveals itself as the tachometer and speedometer wind toward higher digits. One must also deal with the Forester's CVT. Perhaps some may appreciate the smooth, uninterrupted acceleration that results from a lack of gear changes (nor even simulated ones as in some other company's CVTs), but others may find it unusual and irritating. Subaru's CVT is certainly not our favorite example. By contrast, the 2019 RAV4 is conventional with its 2.5-liter inline-four engine and eight-speed automatic transmission, which behaves just as normally and effectively as one expects. The RAV4 is also considerably more powerful at 203 hp and 184 lb-ft — both compared to the Forester and to the entire segment as well. As a result, its acceleration is stronger (likely a difference of a half-second in 0-60-mph time) even if it may not initially feel like it.