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Bibendum 2014: Former EU President says Toyota could lose 100,000 euros per hydrogen FCV sedan

Pat Cox does not work for Toyota and we don't think he has any secret inside information. Still, he's the former President of the European Parliament and the current high level coordinator for TransEuropean Network, so when he says Toyota is likely going to lose between 50,000 and 100,000 euros ($66,000 and $133,000) on each of the hydrogen-powered FCV sedans it will sell next year, it's worth noting. That was just one highlight of Cox's presentation at the 2014 Michelin Challenge Bibendum in Chengdu, China today, which addressed the main problem of using more H2 in transportation: cost. The EU has a tremendous incentive to find an alternative to fossil fuels, since Europe today is 94 percent dependent on oil for its transportation sector and 84 percent of that 94 percent dependency is imported oil. The tab for that costs the EU a billion euros a day, Cox said, on top of the environmental costs. To encourage a shift away from petroleum, European Directive 2014/94 requires each member state to develop national policy frameworks for the market development of alternative fuels and their infrastructure. For the member states that choose to fulfill 2014/94 by developing a hydrogen market – and to be clear, Cox said, it's not an EU diktat that they do so, since a number of other alternatives are also allowed – the aim is to have things in place by the end of 2025. The plans don't even have to be submitted until the end of 2016. The long lead time is due to a quirk in a hydrogen economy. In hydrogen infrastructure, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the firstmover disadvantage." – Pat Cox In deploying a hydrogen infrastructure, Cox said, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the first-mover disadvantage, and high risk." That's why the EU and member states will financially support the early stages, but everyone agrees that "if this is to work, it will have to be ultimately and essentially a commercially viable and commercially driven infrastructure roll-out." Since 1986, European Union research programs have spent 550 million euros on hydrogen-related and fuel-cell-related research, including methods of hydrogen storage and distribution as well as improved fuel cells vehicles, Cox said. Expensive problems remain to be solved. At a conference in Berlin, Germany this past summer, Cox said, the unit cost of the refueling stations was identified as the main problem.

Production Mazda Vision Coupe concept, GRMN Supra, new BRZ/86 coming

After writing about what's in store for the next-generation Subaru WRX, Japan's Best Car magazine is back with more spy work on what's ahead for the coming Mazda sedan, fighting-spec GRMN Toyota Supra, and next-generation Subaru BRZ/Toyota 86. All three are supposedly headed for previews at this year's Tokyo Motor Show before rolling out in 2021 and 2022. Mazda showed the Vision Coupe concept at the 2017 Tokyo show, then sneaked a mention of a rear- and all-wheel drive "Large Architecture" and two inline-six engines into a 2019 investor's report. Best Car says that concept's production version will house a 3.0-liter Skyactiv-X SPCCI inline-six with "M-Hybrid" 48-volt assistance. Output figures remain a mystery, but the mag says engineers are aiming for 345 horsepower. The real deal isn't slated for dealers until 2022, bringing what Mazda bills as a "BMW, Audi quality car at the price of Volkswagen." A further treat: Best Car says the Hiroshima automaker is laying out a two-door version on the same platform. Not even a month after 2020 Toyota Supra chief engineer Tetsuya Tada told us, "With a sports car, the promise is to offer more performance with each additional version," this report says the full-fat GRMN Supra will raise the stakes. Expected in the latter stages of 2021, the current 335-hp Supra will get an "output eventually close to 400 ps" (about 394 horsepower) from its BMW-source 3.0-liter straight-six. Along with that will come a lighter, stiffer body, and a sportier suspension tune to manage and make the most of the 60-horse increase. Best Car says the next-generation Toyota 86 / Subaru BRZ will move to a new platform, without specifying whether it would be Toyota's TNGA platform suggested by a report in April — not that there are many other options. Neither the footprint nor the body dimensions are predicted to change, and transmissions will continue to include a six-speed manual and a six-speed automatic. The new platform will hold a new engine, although it won't be the revelation many fans want. The magazine says the Subaru 2.0-liter FA20 will retire, making way for the Subaru 2.4-liter FA24. The FA24 is the same engine in the Subaru Ascent crossover, where it produces 260 hp and 277 lb-ft. There'll be no such fireworks for the sporty twins due in the first half of 2021, output reported to be "improved to 220 ps," or 217 hp — a 12-hp bump over the current figure.

Submit your questions for Autoblog Podcast #319 LIVE!

We record Autoblog Podcast #319 tonight, and you can drop us your questions and comments regarding the rest of the week's news via our Q&A module below. Subscribe to the Autoblog Podcast in iTunes if you haven't already done so, and if you want to take it all in live, tune in to our UStream (audio only) channel at 10:00 PM Eastern tonight.
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