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Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Recharge Wrap-up: 1M Lexus hybrids, Best Buy Geekmobile goes Prius

Cummins is developing a plug-in hybrid system for heavy trucks. Its plug-in system for Class 6 trucks (those with a gross vehicle weight between 19,000 and 26,000 pounds) is expected to improve fuel economy by 50 percent. Funded in part by a $4.5-million grant from the US Department of Energy (DOE), the system will use a battery pack and some form of range extending internal combustion engine. The system will employ various drive cycles in order to help commercial fleets save fuel based on their needs. Read more at Gas2. German automaker Borgward, LG Chem, Bosch, and software firm SAP have joined forces to form an electric mobility partnership. Borgward recently revived its brand with a new model, the BX7. Borgward has also announced that two other models, the BX5 and BX6, will be available as plug-in hybrids. SAP will provide software services, and LG Chem will supply battery technology to Borgward. Bosch will supply and help develop a number of components for Borgward cars. Read more at Inside EVs. Lexus has sold its millionth hybrid. The luxury automaker began selling hybrids with the electrified RX in 2005, and the millionth hybrid was a NX 300h sold to a customer in Milan, Italy. "This is my first Lexus," says the customer of that vehicle in a Lexus release, Aldo Pirronello. "... and I am honored to celebrate this important milestone with Lexus!" Lexus currently sells 10 hybrid models worldwide. Read more from Lexus. Best Buy's Geek Squad is switching from Volkswagen Beetle Geekmobiles to the Toyota Prius C. As part of an update to the home electronics chain's house call service, the Geeks will be driving more eco-friendly cars with a refreshed logo. More than 1,000 Prius C Geekmobiles are being deployed nationwide. With the Geek Squad answering more than 5 million house calls a year, the fuel savings from switching to a more efficient hybrid cars means reduced emissions over the 12.6 million miles they'll drive per year. Read more in the press release below. Vehicle of Choice for Geeks? Toyota Prius c An armada of agents is about to roll out in Toyota Prius c. Their mission: to help people across America get the most from their technology. Starting today, Best Buy's Geek Squad will dispatch more than 1,000 of the vehicles – fully decked out as the new Geekmobile – nationwide.