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Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Japanese automakers ramping production for renewed American sales

The 2011 earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan took quite the toll on the automotive industry in that nation. Not content to lean on that tragedy as excuse for slagging sales, the Japanese automakers are planning on a major production expansion in North America. The aim is to reclaim the market share lost from the Tsunami-based dip, and overcome a dollar/yen exchange rate that makes exporting to America unprofitable.
Following the Tsunami, Japanese automakers ramped up production in their North American facilities to compensate, but according to Automotive News, Nissan, Honda and others have all reported plans for still-further increased production in the year ahead. As part of this ramp-up, Mazda will open a facility in Salamnca, Mexico before March of 2014. Part of that increase in output is 50,000 units of a Toyota-badged compact car, which Mazda will produce.
Other Mexican production facilities opening include a Honda plant, which will open in Spring 2014 in Celaya, and a Nissan plant, set to open later this year in Aguascalientes. Nissan also said that it will need another plant in North America within the next five years. According to Nissan Boss Carlos Ghosn, the company aims to raise its stake in the US market from 8 percent to 10, and adding production will help achieve that goal. Even Mitsubishi is aiming to boost production at its Normal, Illinois plant. Production of the Outlander Sport is currently at 50,000, which Mitsubishi wants to raise to 70,000.

Next-gen Toyota 86, Subaru BRZ could arrive by 2021

If these rumors are true, a small but dedicated core of fans could be in for a treat. According to Japan Times — and citing unspecified "sources" — Toyota and Subaru are developing a next-generation 86 and BRZ, with a possible launch around 2021. The new car(s) would reportedly have more power, improved handling and newer safety features. According to the report, the rear-drive sports coupes could do away with the current 2.0-liter engine in favor of one with a larger 2.4-liter displacement. The Japan Times sources say the next-gen 86 will also have a lower center of gravity, which will translate to an improvement on the car's already impressive cornering stability. Theoretically, the 2.4-liter in question could be the new FA24 mill used in the upcoming Subaru Ascent crossover that's turbocharged to produce 260 horsepower and 277 pound-feet. That output would be a mammoth jump from the current Toyobaru pair, and it seems doubtful that's what possible second-generation cars would get. Nevertheless, it's at least consistent with recent comments from Toyota engineer Tetsuya Tada that indicated a more powerful, turbocharged 86/BRZ would not be possible unless there was a new, next-generation model. In an interview with Australia's CarAdvice, Tada said, "I do like turbos, however if we come up with a turbo version of the 86 and boost up the power that would result in the necessity of changing the basic configuration completely, to come up with a car that I would be satisfied with." "One characteristic of the 86 is that in terms of the front balance it's slightly front loaded so it makes the handling more fast and agile," he continued. "So if we were to come up with a turbo version, we would have to go change the weight balance between the front and the rear. That means we have to come up with a completely new platform, so it's not about just changing or slight modification in the engine parts." Note that "we have to come up with a completely new platform" does not equal "we are coming up with a completely new platform." He could be talking strictly hypothetically, it could be a wink-wink nudge-nudge implication that his team is already hard at work, or things could've just been a bit fudged in translation. In any event, as hopeful as we are about the possibility of a new generation of Subaru BRZ and Toyota 86, we can't help but maintain a healthy dose of skepticism that the partnership will continue as the Japan Times report suggests.