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Bibendum 2014: Former EU President says Toyota could lose 100,000 euros per hydrogen FCV sedan

Pat Cox does not work for Toyota and we don't think he has any secret inside information. Still, he's the former President of the European Parliament and the current high level coordinator for TransEuropean Network, so when he says Toyota is likely going to lose between 50,000 and 100,000 euros ($66,000 and $133,000) on each of the hydrogen-powered FCV sedans it will sell next year, it's worth noting. That was just one highlight of Cox's presentation at the 2014 Michelin Challenge Bibendum in Chengdu, China today, which addressed the main problem of using more H2 in transportation: cost. The EU has a tremendous incentive to find an alternative to fossil fuels, since Europe today is 94 percent dependent on oil for its transportation sector and 84 percent of that 94 percent dependency is imported oil. The tab for that costs the EU a billion euros a day, Cox said, on top of the environmental costs. To encourage a shift away from petroleum, European Directive 2014/94 requires each member state to develop national policy frameworks for the market development of alternative fuels and their infrastructure. For the member states that choose to fulfill 2014/94 by developing a hydrogen market – and to be clear, Cox said, it's not an EU diktat that they do so, since a number of other alternatives are also allowed – the aim is to have things in place by the end of 2025. The plans don't even have to be submitted until the end of 2016. The long lead time is due to a quirk in a hydrogen economy. In hydrogen infrastructure, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the firstmover disadvantage." – Pat Cox In deploying a hydrogen infrastructure, Cox said, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the first-mover disadvantage, and high risk." That's why the EU and member states will financially support the early stages, but everyone agrees that "if this is to work, it will have to be ultimately and essentially a commercially viable and commercially driven infrastructure roll-out." Since 1986, European Union research programs have spent 550 million euros on hydrogen-related and fuel-cell-related research, including methods of hydrogen storage and distribution as well as improved fuel cells vehicles, Cox said. Expensive problems remain to be solved. At a conference in Berlin, Germany this past summer, Cox said, the unit cost of the refueling stations was identified as the main problem.

2016 Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell Vehicle likely to get 60 MPGe

Toyota isn't talking about the Mirai's fuel economy just yet, but that doesn't mean we can't make an educated guess. And we do so by looking at the competition and knowing that the DOE says that "One kg of hydrogen is roughly equivalent to one gallon of gasoline." For now, the Mirai's H2 competition means the 2015 Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell. It can carry 5.64 kg of hydrogen and has a range of 265 miles. If we do the division there (265/5.64) we get 47 miles per gallon equivalent (MPGe). The DOE says that the miles/kg values are 49 combined, 48 in the city and 50 on the highway while Hyundai lists the official MPGe estimates as 50 combined, 49 city and 51 highway. The simple math gets us pretty close to these official numbers. Or take the 2014 Honda FCX Clarity. With a range of 231 miles and a max of 3.92 kg of hydrogen on board, division gets us to 59 MPGe. Officially, it's rated at 59 miles per kg (combined), with 58 in the city and 60 on the highway. In other words, simple math is a reliable way to calculate rough MPGe. So, we know that the Mirai can hold five kilograms of hydrogen on board and that the car has a 300-mile range. We don't even need a calculator to figure out that the Mirai is looking at 60 MPGe. Interestingly, that might be what the next-gen Prius will get.

Toyota's new TNGA platform could boost Prius to 58 mpg

First, let's put the necessary context around the phrase, "Toyota New Global Architecture platform." The platform is important, but it is just one flowering bud sprouting from the real action, which is the production processes that will create it. It is crucial to understand that TNGA is fundamentally about a revolution in how Toyota designs and builds its cars - it even includes an overhaul of management and human resources - with one of the benefits being the new platform that the 2016 Prius will ride on. The Daily Kanban goes in depth about the changes, but integrated development for powertrain and platforms serves to reduces costs through more parts-sharing at the same time as it creates more cohesive platforms that are lighter, more compact, and have more efficient layouts. Regarding hybrids, Toyota says the new drive unit layout along with small components could raise hybrid efficiency "by more than 15 percent." That might enable the 2016 Prius to return 57.5-mpg combined - almost 59 in the city, 55 on the highway. Plus, the higher rigidity, lower center of gravity, and better suspension of the new platform will provide a better driving experience. All of these changes will be reflected in platforms for large and rear-wheel-drive vehicles, too. It is factory and build-process refinement that allows the development advances to be fully exploited. Toyota is making its lines more flexible, partly by having actual assembly lines that can easily be shortened, lengthened, or trucked somewhere else, and partly by introducing machines that can build parts for many different vehicles on the same line as needed, without using molds. The flexibility extends to capital investment, too, with much less money needed in order to switch to a new product build. Toyota says it is doing this to "improve core vehicle performance and product appeal," the overhaul making it simpler to produce new designs and features. Factory workers benefit from the flexibility as well; being able to build more types of cars means they aren't hamstrung by the sales fortunes of a small number of models. You'll find plenty of specifics in the press release below. Making Ever-better Cars: A Progress Report "Sudden and drastic changes in the business environment mean that conventional ways of thinking and doing business can no longer help us grow sustainably.