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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

How many Toyotas are potentially affected by seat fabric problem?

When we reported yesterday on Toyota's stop-sale order of certain 2013 and 2014 models due to an issue with the fabrics on models with heated seats not conforming to flammability regulations, one of our many questions was how many vehicles were affected? More importantly, how many of those cars have already found homes?
Kelley Blue Book has the troubling statistics. Every 2013 and 2014 Avalon features heated seats. 6.2-percent of 2013 and 4.5-percent of 2014 Camry sedans, meanwhile, were sold with heated seats. That doesn't seem as bad as 100-percent of the larger Avalon, until you consider the Camry's huge volume - the 5.6-percent average still accounts for a lot of cars. Sienna minivans are heavily affected as well, with a total of 37-percent of 2013s and 46-percent of 2014s fitted with butt warmers. The stop-sale only affects 7-percent of 2014 Corolla models, but like the Camry, that number is rather misleading due to the sheer volume of cars Toyota moves. You can see the entire breakdown of percentages by clicking on the inset image.
According to Karl Brauer, a senior analyst for KBB, this problem comes at the worst possible time. "Given that much of the US is currently in the grips of a record cold snap, there's sure to be high demand for models with seat heaters," Brauer notes. The stop-sale order is a good first step, but it doesn't do anything to inform consumers who currently own the affected models and may, in these frosty temperatures, want to use their seat heaters. "Should owners of those vehicles stop using the seat heaters?" Brauer asked.

Japanese automakers will seriously subsidize hydrogen fuel stations

Fresh off the announcement of the EPA-rated fuel economy and range figures for the Toyota Mirai, three of Japan's major automakers are throwing their weight behind hydrogen on the other side of the Pacific. Toyota, Nissan, and Honda are detailing their partnership in Japan to subsidize the creation of an expanded FCV refueling infrastructure there in the coming years. The plan could provide a much-needed boost for goals that are already looking to miss their targets. The partnership, which is called the Joint Hydrogen Infrastructure Support Project, is subsidizing a third of the annual operating expenses up to a maximum of 11 million yen ($90,000) for any hydrogen refueling station that applies and is accepted into the program. For now, the automakers plan to keep this running through around 2020. Toyota senior managing officer Kiyotaka Ise tells Bloomberg the whole thing over that time is expected to cost 5 billion to 6 billion yen ($40.5 million to $49 million). In addition to the money, the companies are trying to raise awareness about the alternative fuel to build popularity. Japan has been pushing extremely hard to build the FCV market there for quite some time by subsidizing both the models and building refueling stations for them. By the 2020 Olympics, the country's goal is to have 6,000 fuel cell vehicles on the roads and possibly even 100,000 of them by 2025. The cars to fulfill these lofty hopes are just gaining steam, though. For example, the Mirai is already experiencing high demand, and Honda is set to bring its new challenger in 2016. This announcement says Nissan is aiming a potential entry for 2017, as well. According to Bloomberg, the fuel cell industry in Japan is forecasted to balloon from 400 million yen (3.3 million) in the current fiscal year to 100 billion ($813 million) by 2025. Toyota, Nissan, and Honda Agree on Details of Joint Support for Hydrogen Infrastructure Development Toyota Motor Corporation, Nissan Motor Co., Ltd., and Honda Motor Co., Ltd. have agreed on key details regarding a new joint support project for the development of hydrogen station infrastructure in Japan. In addition to partially covering the operating costs of hydrogen stations, the three automakers have also agreed to help infrastructure companies deliver the best possible customer service and create a convenient, hassle-free refueling network for owners of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs).