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Bibendum 2014: Former EU President says Toyota could lose 100,000 euros per hydrogen FCV sedan

Pat Cox does not work for Toyota and we don't think he has any secret inside information. Still, he's the former President of the European Parliament and the current high level coordinator for TransEuropean Network, so when he says Toyota is likely going to lose between 50,000 and 100,000 euros ($66,000 and $133,000) on each of the hydrogen-powered FCV sedans it will sell next year, it's worth noting. That was just one highlight of Cox's presentation at the 2014 Michelin Challenge Bibendum in Chengdu, China today, which addressed the main problem of using more H2 in transportation: cost. The EU has a tremendous incentive to find an alternative to fossil fuels, since Europe today is 94 percent dependent on oil for its transportation sector and 84 percent of that 94 percent dependency is imported oil. The tab for that costs the EU a billion euros a day, Cox said, on top of the environmental costs. To encourage a shift away from petroleum, European Directive 2014/94 requires each member state to develop national policy frameworks for the market development of alternative fuels and their infrastructure. For the member states that choose to fulfill 2014/94 by developing a hydrogen market – and to be clear, Cox said, it's not an EU diktat that they do so, since a number of other alternatives are also allowed – the aim is to have things in place by the end of 2025. The plans don't even have to be submitted until the end of 2016. The long lead time is due to a quirk in a hydrogen economy. In hydrogen infrastructure, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the firstmover disadvantage." – Pat Cox In deploying a hydrogen infrastructure, Cox said, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the first-mover disadvantage, and high risk." That's why the EU and member states will financially support the early stages, but everyone agrees that "if this is to work, it will have to be ultimately and essentially a commercially viable and commercially driven infrastructure roll-out." Since 1986, European Union research programs have spent 550 million euros on hydrogen-related and fuel-cell-related research, including methods of hydrogen storage and distribution as well as improved fuel cells vehicles, Cox said. Expensive problems remain to be solved. At a conference in Berlin, Germany this past summer, Cox said, the unit cost of the refueling stations was identified as the main problem.

Toyota FT-1 hints at Supra, more aggressive hybrids

Toyota showed off the new FT-1 performance concept at the 2014 Detroit Auto Show today, and the obvious story angle is that this is the new Supra. That's enough weight for most concept cars to carry, but then we thought about it a bit more - FT-1 stands for "Future Toyota 1," after all - and re-read the hints Toyota is dropping about how the FT-1 fits into the company's future. Put all the pieces together, and we think there's a chance Toyota's hybrid models are about to get a whole lot cooler. Technically, the FT-1 is an EV, but that's just because all it has for a powetrain is a small battery and motor to move it around on stage. This concept doesn't even have a proposed powertrain, but a production Supra could have any number of powerplants under the hood (V6, V8, hybrid and inline-six are all mentioned by Automotive News). We also like the big red start button on the steering wheel, which owes at least a little to the blue start button in the Prius. What we're more interested here is what this sleek red beast could do for the look of Toyota's hybrids. The FT-1 could change how Toyota designs cars in the future. To make the FT-1, Akio Toyoda, the president and CEO of Toyota Motor Corporation, apparently challenged Toyota's Calty Design Research team to create a car with passion and "a palpable heart-pounding sense of excitement." Instead of making design decisions "by consensus among a large group of stakeholders," the company says "the [design] approval process has been streamlined. This new approach aims to produce cars that connect more deeply with customers." There was a sense in Detroit today that the FT-1 heralds a change in how the company designs cars in the future. The FT-1 is apparently not the result of Toyota's hybrid supercar partnership with BMW, but we know that Toyota isn't a total stranger to a high-performance hybrid category, having built the TS030 hybrid Le Mans race car. For an on-road gas-electric from the company, though, we're much more used to the egg-shaped Prius. While Toyota has backed off a 2003 pledge to make every model a hybrid, it has said that it wants gas-electrics powertrains to proliferate throughout the line-up. And, if the FT-1 previews a new Toyota look, then at least some of those hybrids will benefit from some of the good looks on display in Detroit.

2016 Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell Vehicle likely to get 60 MPGe

Toyota isn't talking about the Mirai's fuel economy just yet, but that doesn't mean we can't make an educated guess. And we do so by looking at the competition and knowing that the DOE says that "One kg of hydrogen is roughly equivalent to one gallon of gasoline." For now, the Mirai's H2 competition means the 2015 Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell. It can carry 5.64 kg of hydrogen and has a range of 265 miles. If we do the division there (265/5.64) we get 47 miles per gallon equivalent (MPGe). The DOE says that the miles/kg values are 49 combined, 48 in the city and 50 on the highway while Hyundai lists the official MPGe estimates as 50 combined, 49 city and 51 highway. The simple math gets us pretty close to these official numbers. Or take the 2014 Honda FCX Clarity. With a range of 231 miles and a max of 3.92 kg of hydrogen on board, division gets us to 59 MPGe. Officially, it's rated at 59 miles per kg (combined), with 58 in the city and 60 on the highway. In other words, simple math is a reliable way to calculate rough MPGe. So, we know that the Mirai can hold five kilograms of hydrogen on board and that the car has a 300-mile range. We don't even need a calculator to figure out that the Mirai is looking at 60 MPGe. Interestingly, that might be what the next-gen Prius will get.