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Toyota hydrogen vehicle visits CES, on sale in US in 2015

If there was ever any doubt that Toyota loves hydrogen vehicles, just listen to some of what Bob Carter, senior vice president of automotive operations for Toyota Motor Sales, USA, said today at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas: "Fuel cell electric vehicles will be in our future sooner than many people believe, and in much greater numbers than anyone expected." "Hydrogen works beautifully with oxygen to create water and electricity and nothing more." "This [hydrogen] infrastructure thing is going to happen." "I believe what I'm going to tell you about today is going to change our world." Sounds like love is in the air. In all seriousness, Toyota is incredibly bullish on the future of hydrogen as a part of the automotive landscape, and is now gearing up for the 2015 launch of its hydrogen sedan. The concept version of the car was shown for the first time at the Tokyo Motor Show last fall and is making its North American debut at CES today, alongside the still-under-camo engineering prototype. The reasons for Toyota's hydrogen confidence? The debut vehicle is supposed to be a "reasonably priced" car that has a range of 300 miles and a refueling time of about five minutes. Carter highlighted the engineering work that Toyota has done over the past decades to get the fuel cell system downsized while upping power output to over 100 kW. He also said the vehicle will have carry enough energy to power a house for a week, so company engineers are working on an export power supply device. The H2 Toyota sedan will start sales in California (the only state in the US where there are currently any hydrogen stations) next year. The automaker is working with the University of California Irvine's Advanced Power and Energy Program (APEP) to figure out where to build the next series of public hydrogen fueling stations. Today there are ten, but the model Toyota is using "is based on the assumption that owners want to reach a refueling station within 6-minutes" and shows that 68 stations would be able to serve around 10,000 hydrogen vehicles. 'Toyota Car of the Future' On Sale Next Year; Opens 2014 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) Reasonably priced hydrogen fuel cell electric targets 300-mile range, 3-5 minute fill-up LAS VEGAS (Jan. 06, 2014) – "We aren't trying to re-invent the wheel; just everything necessary to make them turn," said Bob Carter, senior vice president of automotive operations for Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A.

The ugly economics of green vehicles

It's fair to say that most consumers would prefer a green vehicle, one that has a lower impact on the environment and goes easy on costly fuel (in all senses of the term). The problem is that most people can't – or won't – pay the price premium or put up with the compromises today's green cars demand. We're not all "cashed-up greenies." In 2013, the average selling price of a new vehicle was $32,086. The truth is that most Americans can't afford a new car, green or not. In 2013, the average selling price of a new vehicle was $32,086. According to a recent Federal Reserve study, the median income for American families was $46,700 in 2013, a five-percent decline from $49,000 in 2010. While $32,000 for a car may not sound like a lot to some, it's about $630 a month financing for 48 months, assuming the buyer can come up with a $6,400 down payment. And that doesn't include gas, insurance, taxes, maintenance and all the rest. It's no wonder that a recent study showed that the average family could afford a new car in only one of 25 major US cities. AutoTrader conducted a recent survey of 1,900 millennials (those born between 1980 and 2000) about their new and used car buying habits. Isabelle Helms, AutoTrader's vice president of research, said millennials are "big on small" vehicles, which tend to be more affordable. Millennials also yearn for alternative-powered vehicles, but "they generally can't afford them." When it comes to the actual behavior of consumers, the operative word is "affordable," not "green." In 2012, US new car sales rose to 14.5 million. But according to Manheim Research, at 40.5 million units, used car sales were almost three times as great. While the days of the smoke-belching beater are mostly gone, it's a safe bet that the used cars are far less green in terms of gas mileage, emissions, new technology, etc., than new ones. Who Pays the Freight? Green cars, particularly alternative-fuel green cars, cost more than their conventional gas-powered siblings. A previous article discussed how escalating costs and limited utility drove me away from leasing a hydrogen fuel cell-powered Hyundai Tucson, which at $50,000, was nearly twice the cost of the equivalent gas-powered version. In Hyundai's defense, it's fair to ask who should pay the costs of developing and implementing new technology vehicles and the infrastructure to support them.

Scion was slain by Toyota, not the Great Recession

Scion didn't have to go down like this. Through the magic of hindsight and hubris, it's easier to see what went wrong. And what might have been. What the industry should understand is this: Scion wasn't a losing proposition from the get-go. Its death is due to negligence and apathy. This is more than just the failure of a sub-brand. It's the failure of a company to deliver new and compelling products over an extended period of time. Toyota will point to the Great Recession as the reason it hedged its bets and withdrew funding for new vehicles, instead of using that as an opportunity to redouble efforts. This was as good as a death warrant, although myopically no one realized it at the time. Sadly, GM's Saturn experiment was a road map for this exact form of failure. No one at Toyota seemed to think the Saturn experience was worth protecting their experimental brand from. Or they weren't heard. Brands live and die on product. Somehow, Scion convinced itself that its real success metric was a youthful demographic of buyers. It seems like this was used to gauge the overall health of the brand. Look at the aging and uncompetitive tC, which Scion proudly noted had a 29-year-old average buyer. That fails to take into account its lack of curb appeal and flagging sales. Who cares if the declining number of people buying your cars are younger? Toyota is going to kill the tC thirteen years [And two indifferent generations ... - Ed.] after it was introduced. In that time, Honda has come out with three entirely new generations of the Civic. Scion wasn't a losing proposition from the get-go. Its death is due to negligence and apathy. At launch, the brand could have gone a few different ways. The xB was plucky, interesting, and useful – a tough mix of ephemeral characteristics – but the xA didn't offer much except a thin veneer of self-consciously applied attitude. That's ok; it was cute. Enter the tC, which managed to combine sporty pretensions with decent cost. It took on the Civic Coupe in the contest for coolness, and usually managed to win. More importantly, an explicit brand value early on was a desire to avoid second generations of any of its models, promising a continually evolving and fresh lineup. At this point, the road splits. Down one lane lies the Scion that could have been. After a short but reasonable product lifecycle, it would have renewed the entire lineup.