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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Toyota fires bullets into hydrogen fuel tanks, shoots down EV supporters

Many gearheads will remember that the 1970s-era Dodge Dart's claim to fame was that its motor was so durable (though not necessarily powerful) that one could shoot bullets into the engine block. Decades later, Toyota has taken a page out of that testing process. "Personally, I don't care what Elon [Musk] says about fuel cells." With some industry members and analysts questioning both the viability and durability of hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles, Toyota executive Bob Carter, speaking at the Automotive News World Congress this week, says the Japanese automaker went all Clint Eastwood on the fuel tanks of a fuel-cell prototype. Carter says that bullets from a small-caliber gun bounced off the carbon-fiber tanks, and that .50-caliber bullets barely made dents. The shoot-out motif kept going when Carter name-checked executives from Tesla, Nissan and Volkswagen in saying that he didn't care if other automakers question the future of fuel-cell vehicles. As you can see in the prepared text of Carter's speech below, he said, "Personally, I don't care what Elon [Musk], Carlos [Ghosn] or Jonathan [Browning] say about fuel cells. If they want to 'plug in and tune out' other technologies, that's fine." After debuting it in Tokyo late last year, Toyota showed off its FCV fuel-cell concept vehicle at the Detroit Auto Show this week as it get ready to start sales "around 2015." The car has a 300-mile range and should be priced somewhere between $50,000 and $100,000. Autoblog drove Toyota's fuel-cell prototypes last year, and you can read our impressions here. 2014 Automotive News World Congress- Bob Carter January 14, 2014 As prepared for: Automotive News World Congress Tuesday, January 14, 2014 Bob Carter, Senior Vice President, Automotive Operations, Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. _________________ Thanks, Keith and good afternoon everyone. You know, I've been in the car business for more than 30 years, but I'm more excited about it now than EVER before Why? Because for the first time in Toyota's history, we did something here we've NEVER done before. We shocked people by unveiling two great looking, fun-to-drive cars that blow a hole in the theory that Toyota only builds "appliances". Just yesterday, we unveiled Toyota's newest concept, the FT-1 sports car. I'm already getting people asking me when they can get their hands on one. The FT-1 represents the latest in our heritage of sports cars like the 2000GT, Celica, Supra and most recently, the FR-S.

Toyota throwing water on fast-charging EVs

Toyota is undoubtedly committed to moving beyond the internal combustion engine for future automobiles. But, while the company embraces hybrids with boosted production, new models and in motorsports, the automaker is more standoffish when it comes to pure electric models. This is especially true as the Mirai hydrogen fuel cell sedan comes to market. In the mind of Mirai chief engineer Yoshikazu Tanaka, even fast-charging electric vehicles don't have much of a future because of their strain on the power grid. "If you were to charge a car in 12 minutes for a range of 500 km (310 miles), for example, you're probably using up electricity required to power 1,000 houses," he said to Reuters. Tanaka admitted that EVs have a place in the market, but it was for short drives during the day after being charged each night. As one of the people responsible for bringing the Mirai to the road, it shouldn't be too shocking that Tanaka puts his faith in hydrogen. He feels that H2 is the better choice for long-distance driving because of the available range and speed of refueling. "Of course, there are technological hurdles that need to be cleared to make this commercially viable," he said to Reuters. One of the biggest of those obstacles is building a new refueling infrastructure. But, despite government subsidies, Japan looks set to miss its goal of opening 100 H2 stations by the end of March 2016. Toyota has thrown a lot of support behind hydrogen but has been accused of overstating some of the fuel's benefits and embellishing the current refueling infrastructure. Still, engineers at the automaker are working to bring the cost of the fuel cell vehicle down to the level of a diesel by 2022.