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Strains between France and Italy risk Renault-FCA merger

PARIS/ROME — Fiat Chrysler's proposed $35 billion merger with Renault has cheered investors, won conditional support from Paris and Rome and even earned cautious backing from trade unions. Beneath this veneer, however, the bold attempt to create the world's third-largest carmaker risks becoming rapidly embroiled in the fraught relationship between France's europhile President Emmanuel Macron and Italy's euroskeptic leaders. For while Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini hailed the proposal as a "brilliant operation," Italy's creaking, state-subsidized Fiat factories are likely to bear the brunt of any production-related cost savings. FCA and Renault said this week that more than 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) of annual savings would come mainly from combining platforms, consolidating powertrain and electrification investments and the benefits of increased scale. Salvini and France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who called the deal a "good opportunity" to build a European industrial champion able to compete with China and the United States, have both said they want guarantees on local jobs. "It's not every day that I agree with Salvini," said Le Maire, whose government appears to hold the trump cards. When it comes to where any job cuts fall, France will be helped by its existing 15 percent holding in Renault, whose superior efficiency at its five French plants makes it better placed to handle a supply glut, the demise of the petrol engine and the investments needed for electric and autonomous vehicles. "It will take many, many years to find real savings, and ugly political and operational realities can often swamp the potential of such new entities," Bernstein analyst Max Warburton said of the FCA-Renault plan to rival Japan's Toyota and Germany's Volkswagen. Advantage France? As well as Italy's government having to cope with the aftermath of European elections, which coincided with news of the FCA-Renault plans, political leaders in Rome were only informed shortly before the deal was made public, an FCA source said. This contrasted with the way the French government was treated, with Fiat Chrysler Chairman John Elkann, a fluent French speaker, letting it know of his merger proposal to Renault weeks ago, a French government official said.

Carlos Ghosn re-arrested and thrown back in jail [UPDATE]

TOKYO — Tokyo prosecutors arrested Nissan's former chairman Carlos Ghosn on Thursday for a fourth time, on fresh allegations that cut short his brief time outside detention. Early in the morning, Ghosn was taken from his apartment in Tokyo to the prosecutors' office and then sent to the Tokyo Detention Center, the same facility where he spent more than three months following his arrest in November. He had been released on bail just a month earlier. It's unclear how long Ghosn may be detained under the latest arrest, which involves what prosecutors said was a new alleged crime. "My arrest this morning is outrageous and arbitrary," Ghosn said in a statement issued Thursday. "It is part of another attempt by some individuals at Nissan to silence me by misleading the prosecutors. Why arrest me except to try to break me? I will not be broken. I am innocent of the groundless charges and accusations against me." The prosecutors defended the move, saying the latest allegations are a new case requiring precautions to prevent Ghosn from destroying evidence. They allege $5 million in funds sent by a Nissan subsidiary to an overseas dealership were diverted to a company controlled by Ghosn. "We now have a totally different case, and we are only doing what we think is right," Shin Kukimoto, deputy chief prosecutor at the Tokyo District Prosecutor's Office, told reporters. "As a result of our investigation, we have a new case in which he must be detained, and we have appropriately obtained an arrest warrant from the court," he said. Ghosn, 65, was first arrested on Nov. 19 on charges of under-reporting his compensation. He was rearrested twice in December, including on breach of trust charges. The multiple arrests prolong detentions without trial and are an oft-criticized prosecution tactic in Japan's criminal justice system. The allegations in the most recent arrest cover three money transfers from 2015 through last year, according to the prosecutors. Kukimoto said the new allegation of breach of trust is different from an earlier charge made in January. The companies where the money was transferred to, the motives, and the alleged scheme are all different, he said. He refused to identify the three companies allegedly involved but said one company was in effect owned by Ghosn. Unlike an earlier case, in which Ghosn caused damage to Nissan to benefit himself and a business partner, this time it was merely "for his own personal benefit," Kukimoto said.

PSA shares rise following FCA's breakup with Renault

Shares in Groupe PSA, parent company of automakers Peugeot, Citroen and the DS brand, rose on Thursday as analysts considered the possibility that Fiat Chrysler could turn back to PSA after withdrawing its $35 billion merger offer for Renault. "Both parties have acknowledged the need for scale or [mergers and acquisitions] and may pursue other opportunities. If Nissan was an obstacle (to an FCA-Renault deal) PSA-FCA discussions could resume," wrote brokerage Jefferies. Back in March at the Geneva Motor Show, rumors started swirling that PSA was interested in a potential merger with FCA. Mike Manley, who took over at the helm of Fiat Chrysler following the death of Sergio Marchionne, had indicated a willingness to look into potential partnership options. Of course, that was all before FCA proposed a merger with Renault — with that deal now off the table, attention naturally turns back to PSA, which is also based in France. "We expect both shares to react negatively but see FCA having wider strategic options and Renault shares more downside risk near-term," said Jefferies. According to Reuters, PSA shares were up 1.5% at the time this was published, making it the top-performing stock on France's benchmark CAC-40 Index. Renault saw its shares slump 7%. Shares for FCA fell 3% in early trading on the Milan Stock Exchange. Considering that FCA said in its statement confirming the withdraw of its merger offer with Renault that "political conditions in France do not currently exist for such a combination to proceed successfully," we have to wonder how keen the company is to begin negotiations with another French automaker like PSA. Those thoughts were similarly voiced by Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton, who said (via Forbes), "Expect PSA to rise on unrealistic hopes it may be FCA's next date." Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Mitsubishi Nissan Citroen Peugeot Renault FCA renault-nissan