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'Car Wars' says Ford, Honda to pick up share, Fiat-Chrysler ambitions downplayed

Don't look for a tremendous shifts in automotive market share over the next three years because it might not be coming. That's at least according to the annual Car Wars report by John Murphy, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.
In the report's analysis of automakers' market share from 2013 to 2017, it predicts only small changes among the major companies. Ford and Honda see the biggest positive effect with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in their shares over the next three years; to 16.2 percent and 10.3 percent respectively. On the flip side, European automakers and Nissan are expected to lose 0.2 percent each to fall to 8.3 percent and 7.8 percent each respectively. The rest of the industry is predicted to hold steady as it is now.
The biggest loser in that prediction might be Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles. The report certainly throws a wet blanket on its plan for significant gains in market share. Murphy told The Detroit News that the company's goal was "almost unattainable."

FCA-Renault merger faces tall odds delivering on cost-cutting promises

FRANKFURT/DETROIT — Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Renault promise huge savings from a mega-merger, but such combinations face tall odds because of the industry's long product cycles and problems translating deal blueprints into real world success, industry veterans told Reuters. BMW's 1994 purchase of Rover, and Daimler's 1998 merger with Chrysler both made sense on paper. The companies promised to hike profits by combining vehicle platforms and engine families. Both combinations proved unworkable in reality, and were unwound. Renault and Nissan, which have been in an alliance since 1999 designed to share vehicle components, have only managed to use common vehicle platforms in 35% of Nissan's products despite an original target of 70%, according to Morgan Stanley. FCA and Renault have raised the stakes for themselves by ruling out plant closures. That increases the pressure to achieve more than $5 billion in promised annual savings from pooling procurement and research investments. The two companies have yet to fill in many of the blanks in the merger plan put forward by Fiat Chrysler. Renault's board is expected to act soon to accept the proposal, but that would lead only to a memorandum of understanding to pursue detailed operational and financial plans. A final deal and the legal combination of the two companies could take months to complete if all goes well. Pressure to cut automotive pollution is driving the latest round of consolidation. Automakers are looking at multibillion-dollar bills to develop electric and hybrid cars and cleaner internal combustion engines. Fiat Chrysler and Renault are betting they can design common electric vehicle systems, then sell more of them through their respective brands and dealer networks, cutting the cost per car. Developing all-new electric vehicles can bring more opportunities to share costs from the outset, industry experts said. "With the emergence of connected, autonomous, electric and shared vehicles, carmakers face immediate investments, so new opportunities for sharing costs have emerged," said Elmar Kades, managing director at Alix Partners. However, most electric vehicles lose money. This is a challenge for city car brands in Europe in particular. Both Renault and Fiat rely heavily on this segment for sales.

Nissan CEO plans to deliver 'raw details of the misconduct' to Renault

TOKYO/PARIS — Nissan Motor's CEO plans to meet one-on-one with the deputy CEO of automaking partner Renault in Amsterdam this week, sources told Reuters, amid tensions over the future of the alliance after Chairman Carlos Ghosn's arrest last month. The meeting would be the first face-to-face interaction between Nissan's Hiroto Saikawa and Renault's Thierry Bollore since Ghosn was arrested on Nov. 19 in Tokyo. It would take place alongside regular top-level, monthly talks between the partners and Mitsubishi Motor Corp that will be held over two days from Tuesday, according to one of the sources familiar with the matter. Saikawa, who took over from Ghosn as CEO last year, is planning to discuss at the meeting with Bollore possible changes to the partnership's management and operations with an eye to continuing the alliance, another source who is close to Nissan's management said. The talks in Amsterdam could provide Saikawa with an opportunity to try and convince Renault executives of the gravity of Ghosn's alleged misconduct discovered during an in-house investigation by the Japanese automaker. They are being held a day after Saikawa rebuffed a demand from Renault for an extraordinary shareholder meeting that would have offered the French car maker a chance to weigh in on Ghosn's replacement as chairman and on other Nissan board appointments. Mitsubishi Chairman Osamu Masuko said late on Monday he will attend the Amsterdam meetings via video conference. A Nissan spokesman said Saikawa would attend meetings with alliance partners in Amsterdam from Tuesday, but declined to comment on the possibility of the one-on-one meeting with Bollore. Ghosn was charged last week alongside alleged accomplice Greg Kelly and Nissan itself over the company's failure to declare $43 million in deferred income that Ghosn had arranged to be paid while chairman and CEO. Both men remain in custody. The scandal has shaken the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, with Saikawa calling for changes to weaken Renault's control as he moved to oust Ghosn in the week of his arrest. Renault directors were briefed last week on the Nissan investigation that led to Ghosn's arrest but reiterated their earlier decision to keep him in office as chairman and CEO. But the Renault board has yet to be given direct access to Nissan's findings, which are being closely held by Renault lawyers answering to Ghosn's long-standing chief of staff and head of legal affairs at Renault, Mouna Sepehri.