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Automakers face reality of EVs' cost — to jobs, and their bottom line

Related: We obsessively covered the Frankfurt Motor Show — here's our complete coverage FRANKFURT, Germany — European car bosses gathering for the Frankfurt auto show are beginning to address the realities of mass vehicle electrification, and its consequences for jobs and profit, their minds focused by government pledges to outlaw the combustion engine. As the latest such announcement by China added momentum to a push for zero-emissions motoring, Daimler, Volkswagen and PSA Group gave details about their electric programs that could give policymakers some pause. Planned electric Mercedes models will initially be just half as profitable as conventional alternatives, Daimler warned — forcing the group to find savings by outsourcing more component manufacturing, which may in turn threaten German jobs. "In-house production is almost irrelevant to the consumer," Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche told reporters on the eve of the Frankfurt Motor Show, in the midst of a German election campaign in which automotive jobs have loomed large. The company set a target of saving 4 billion euros ($4.8 billion) by 2025 to help fund the cost of its electric cars. "Daimler is the first company to state explicitly how much electric vehicles are going to hurt margins," said Bernstein analyst Max Warburton. "It was brave to go first — but of course it won't be the last." Volkswagen, for its part, said it was seeking new global supplier contracts to source 50 billion euros ($60 billion) of electric car content including batteries, which are not yet manufactured competitively in Europe. "A company like Volkswagen must lead, not follow," Chief Executive Matthias Mueller told reporters. VW diesel emissions-cheating exposed by U.S. regulators in 2015 triggered global public outrage, dozens more investigations into test-rigging by the wider industry and a push by some lawmakers to ban diesel and eventually all engines. TIGHTENING NOOSE Tesla shares jumped nearly 6 percent on Monday after a Chinese minister said it was a question of when, not if, Beijing bans fossil-fuel cars, tightening the noose around the combustion engine. France and Britain have promised its outright abolition by 2040. But PSA, the maker of Peugeots and Citroens, said it was concerned about the risks if consumers were left behind in the rush, and a new generation of battery cars does not sell.

Tesla says Model 3 is best-selling midsize premium sedan in America

Auto sales figures are sort of fuzzy numbers, no matter how you slice them and no matter which manufacturer you're talking about. Unless you're specifically tracking vehicle registrations, automakers generally self-report the figures. So, you have to trust that they aren't doing anything too tricky. Plus, not every sale is equal, as some are logged as dealership loaners or demo models, some go to fleets (like to a rental car agency), and still others are, of course, bought by traditional customers looking for a new daily driver. With that preamble out of the way, when we saw a tweet from Tesla claiming that the all-electric Model 3 is the best-selling midsize premium sedan in America, our interest was piqued. According to Tesla, market share of the Model 3 has just surpassed the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, which had up until now led the Audi A4, BMW 3 Series, and Lexus IS as the best-selling sedan in its class. Note that the graph from Tesla below is, we think, specific to four-door models. So, is it true? Judging by the numbers we can find, including some from Bloomberg, which has a running chart to track Model 3 registrations, the answer is... probably. We don't know exactly how many Model 3 sedans Tesla is currently cranking out, but Bloomberg estimates production at about 2,560 units per week, and total sales for 2018 at 34,414. We know the number is increasing regularly, though, and Elon Musk has said most recently production sits around 500 units per day, which, on a seven-day cycle, would be 3,500 per week. We looked up Mercedes' sales figures for the month of May, 2018, and found that the German brand sold 5,419 C-Class models last month, for a total of 23,917 for the year (incidentally, that's down more than 30 percent from the year prior). While the bulk of those sales would surely be made up of sedans, it would also include a small percentage of coupes. Either way, it's likely that Tesla is currently producing and selling more Model 3s than Mercedes is C-Classes. Now, it's also worth considering if the C-Class is the only vehicle from Mercedes that directly competes with the Model 3. We'd guess customers may also cross-shop the CLA sedan with the Tesla, and if that's the case, you might decide it's worth adding in Mercedes' 2,527 CLA-Class sales last month and 9,622 so far for the year. The same argument could be made for certain versions of the BMW 2 and 4 Series.

Mercedes considering Audi Allroad rival

The Audi Allroad is something of an anomaly in the automotive world. Its competitors are limited to the recently released Volvo V60 Cross Country and perhaps the far cheaper Subaru Outback. The lifted premium wagon hasn't exactly done great for Audi, only selling a few hundred examples each month. Its best sales year was 2013, and even then, only 5,300 left US showrooms. Despite these limited prospects, word from Australia is that Mercedes-Benz is looking at launching its own competitor to the Allroad. "We are looking at every single niche, so we are studying this [Allroad] at the moment, but it is not confirmed," Matthias Luhrs, VP of sales and a member of the product management at MB, told Motoring.com.au. "We are looking obviously at C-Class and E-Class, but no confirmation at the moment." Fortunately, Luhrs recognizes that the Allroad isn't exactly a smash in the US. "In the US, no matter how long, short, high ... they don't like station wagons," Luhrs said, while adding that the Allroad concept is "developing quite successfully" in Italy and southern Europe. And for those hoping for a lifted C- or E-Class sedan, Luhrs also put the kibosh on that, saying, "We are not studying that." So what does this tell us? Well, it's still far from a sure thing that Mercedes will launch a lifted C-Class or E-Class Estate. And even if the company does go ahead with it, like the rest of the brand's long roofs (E-Class aside), don't expect to see it on US roads.