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China-market Ford Edge spotted testing in Spain with a mystery wagon

There are a few threads to put together for this one. The U.S.-market Ford Edge and Lincoln Nautilus have been rumored to meet their ends during the 2023 model year; contract negotiations pointed to the Oakville Assembly Plant that that builds being converted to build five Ford electric vehicles in 2025. On top of that, we've heard years of rumors about a Ford Fusion Active wagon-esque product that would challenge the Subaru Outback and fill a perceived gap in the U.S. lineup. We're not sure what the Ford vehicles in the spy shots above are, nor were the spy photographers who caught them during hot weather testing in Spain. And we mean vehicles, plural, details like the side mirror attachment points, DRL signatures, rear bumpers and muffler orientations pointing to these being two products. Here are our guesses. One of them is almost certainly the new Ford Edge that will debut soon for the Chinese market (above and below). Motor1 saw that the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology published photos of that country's newest Edge in two configurations, a lesser trim that can seat five or seven, and a top trim that seats seven only. The camouflaged car in the gallery above with the mirrors that mount on the door would be the same vehicle. The headlights on the China-market Edge feature the same central, stacked DRLs instead of the single lower and side DRLs of the other vehicle. The taillights are temporary units, but they match the squared vertical design of the new crossover. And the rear bumper of the Chinese Edge features the same slanted cutout in the middle, and beneath that, the same enormous muffler on the driver's side of the car. Look more closely, and one can also spot the way the sheetmetal flicks up at the C-pillar then descends to the D-pillar. Engineers tried to hide it with camo, but it's there. Ford Authority believes the other vehicle, the one with the side mirrors mounted at the base of the A-pillar, could be a new Lincoln Nautilus. Ford's Changan Hangzhou plant in China builds the Edge and its sister Lincoln product for that market. Although both are presumed to be headed for the grave here, one is clearly carrying on over there, so there's no reason to believe the other wouldn't as well.       The big mystery is whether one of these is the Ford Fusion Active. Well, a bigger mystery would be to figure out if the Fusion Active is even a thing anymore, or if we — including Ford — collectively imagined it.

Ford to ramp up Lincoln rollout in China in bid to catch rivals

DETROIT/BEIJING — Ford Motor Co's premium Lincoln brand plans to build as many as five new vehicles in China by 2022, according to two U.S. sources, in a move to expand sales in the world's largest vehicle market that would also blunt the impact of trade U.S.-China trade spats. Ford has said it plans to build an all-new sport utility vehicle in China by the end of 2019, however the company has not detailed future production plans for the Lincoln brand in China beyond that. "Our localization plans to support the China market are on track and will serve to further drive Lincoln's growth in China," Lincoln spokeswoman Angie Kozleski said. "Beyond that, it would be premature to discuss our future product and production plans or timing." Sources familiar with Ford's production plans told Reuters the automaker now expects to begin building the new Lincoln Aviator in China in late 2019 or early 2020, along with replacements for the MKC compact crossover and the MKZ midsize sedan, followed in 2021 by the all-new Nautilus, which replaces the Lincoln MKX crossover. A fifth model, a small coupe-like crossover, is tentatively slated for production in China in 2022, the sources said. Ford has much to lose if the war of words over trade between China and U.S. President Donald Trump escalates into a full-blown tariff war. Last year, it shipped about 80,000 vehicles to China from North America, more than half of them Lincolns to support the brand's growth. All Lincoln vehicles that Ford now sells in China are brought in from North America. Even if China does reduce its 25 percent tariff on imported vehicles - as Chinese President Xi Jinping promised on Tuesday - it is not clear that would mean a big, long-term increase in Fords and Lincolns made in U.S. factories heading to Chinese showrooms. Ford is pursuing long-range plans to build more vehicles in China to serve a market that is now roughly 60 percent larger than the U.S. market, and projected to keep growing. But it is playing catch up to hometown rival General Motors Co and German luxury brands including Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, which have invested heavily in Chinese production in recent years as a form of insurance against trade, political and currency gyrations and to lower price points for their premium cars.

Lincoln Nautilus, Ford Edge latest prediction: Production ends in July 2024

In June, Auto Forecast Solutions put out a report compiled by its vice president of global forecasting, Sam Fiorani. One item in the report covered how Fiorani had heard from "multiple sources" that Ford shut down the program to replace the Edge crossover in 2023. Assuming this came to pass, with the Lincoln Nautilus based on the Edge, the inference is that the Nautilus would retire at or around the same time. Ford's response to media queries about the report was either "No comment" or PR-speak deflection. Lincoln's statement on the matter to Motor1, a crafty non-answer, was, "The Nautilus plays and will continue to play an important role in Lincoln’s growing SUV portfolio which includes the Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. Lincoln is investing in growth segments like SUVs and we have no plans to exit the segment." It's possible Lincoln has no plans to leave the segment, but the Nautilus might, according to a fresh, unsourced report in Ford Authority. The site claims the Nautilus will end production at the Oakville Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada, in July 2024.  Again, we can't know how much, if any of this, is true. But we're zeroing in on a timeline for the potential end of the Edge and Nautilus in the U.S. Those are the only two products Oakville currently builds, and when the Canadian union Unifor asked Ford about the reports in June, Ford couldn't offer union reps anything concrete or reassuring. The Detroit News quoted Unifor chief Jerry Dias as saying of the automaker, "There is no question, they are going through a major evaluation of their portfolio, based on a whole host of things."   We could be seeing one of the earlier theories for Edge's potential demise coming true. Some analysts suspect Ford could be pruning its crossover lineup because it has too many similarly-sized offerings at the moment, the Edge hasn't met its sales targets in Europe, and more compact crossovers are on the way that could bring better street cred if they're associated with the Bronco or Bronco Sport. Unifor and Ford are now in negotiations over a new contract, so it's possible we'll get more clarity in the next month or so about Ford's plans and what will come of Oakville and its roughly 4,000 workers. If Ford walks away from the assembly plant, it will only have two engine plants left in Canada, and no vehicle assembly north of the border for the first time in about a century.