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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Buyers ditching expensive European sedans to buy expensive American trucks

The New York Times ended the automotive week with a story that adds numbers and context to a range of other stories, from the crossover craze to the increasing median price of a new car to ever more grandiose pickup trucks. The NYT piece reveals that the shift to larger vehicles isn't merely about the average U.S. buyer swapping the midsize sedan for a Ford Edge. Luxury buyers are migrating from plush sedans to plush SUVs and trucks that creep close to six-figure prices, and the Detroit Three are running Treasury presses because of it. From 2013 to 2017, the truck category — everything from pickups to minivans — climbed from 30 percent of the market to 41 percent. In January of this year, trucks claimed 66 percent of new vehicle sales. At the milk-and-honey end of profits, GMC alone accounted for 11.3 percent of all vehicle sales over $60,000, not just trucks. That puts the luxury truck maker behind Mercedes-Benz and Ford, The Blue Oval's feasting on Lariat, King Ranch and Raptor versions of the F-150, which make up more than half of that pickup's sales, putting it ahead of Chevrolet, Porsche and Lexus on the high-dollar sales list. The average transaction price of a GMC in Denali trim last year was $56,000; it's easy to see why, when one dealer told the NYT he just swapped a 2012 BMW 550i for a $71,000 GMC Sierra Denali. That truck starts at $52,900. The NYT started its story with a buyer who took home a Ford Raptor instead of an Audi A6, and optioned that $50,020 Ford Raptor close to $80,000. Over at Lincoln, the new $72,055 Navigator — the one so popular that Ford will increase production — crossed hands for an average sale price of $77,000 in January. And a Jeep dealer told the NYT that the two $93,000 Trackhawks he had on his lot "won't be here more than a few weeks." While trucks head up in sales volume and price, cars are headed so viciously in the opposite direction that "the Detroit Three and even some foreign manufacturers acknowledge they are now losing money on many of the cars they sell." So ... get ready for a lot more crossovers and trucks. Related Video: Find out what vehicle is right for you. Give our Car Finder tool a try.

2020 Lincoln Aviator Grand Touring plug-in hybrid range, fuel economy revealed

The range-topping 2020 Lincoln Aviator Grand Touring plug-in hybrid luxury crossover finally has official fuel economy ratings. The electric range is 21 miles, and when the battery is exhausted, gas-only combined fuel economy is 23 mpg. The EPA's combined electric and gas test loop yielded 56 mpg-e. These numbers make the Aviator Grand Touring the most frugal version of the three-row luxury crossover, with the next most efficient one being the rear-drive non-hybrid model at 21 mpg combined. When going by gas-only fuel economy, though, the Aviator Grand Touring's non-plug-in cousin, the Ford Explorer Hybrid, returns up to 28 mpg combined with rear-wheel drive, and 25 mpg with all-wheel drive. It has much less power at 318 horsepower and 322 pound-feet of torque, compared to the Aviator Grand Touring's 494 horsepower and 630 pound-feet of torque. The luxury plug-in hybrid crossover segment is quite small right now. The closest competitor to the Aviator Grand Touring is probably the Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid. It has a shorter electric range of 13 miles, and its gas-only fuel economy is a slightly worse at 22 mpg. The Porsche is less powerful with 455 horsepower and 516 pound-feet of torque, and its base price of $82,450 exceeds the Lincoln's $69,895 price. The Mercedes-Benz GLC 350e splits the difference on efficiency with a worse 10-mile electric range, but a better gasoline fuel economy of 25 mpg combined. This could improve for 2020, as the updated model will have a larger battery. It's cheaper, too, at $51,645, but it's also a full size smaller than the Lincoln.