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UK car output falls 14% in March, may get worse with no-deal Brexit

LONDON — British car output fell for the 10th month in a row in March, hit by a slowdown in key foreign markets, and the sector stands to suffer a lot more if the country leaves the European Union without a deal, an industry body said on Tuesday. Output tumbled by an annual 14.4 percent to 126,195 cars in March, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said. Exports, which account for nearly four out of every five cars made in Britain, were down by 13.4 percent. The SMMT said analysis it had commissioned predicted output would fall this year to 1.36 million units from 1.52 million in 2018, assuming London can secure a transition deal with the EU. If Britain has to rely instead on World Trade Organization rules for its trade with the bloc, which include import tariffs, output is forecast to fall by around 30 percent to 1.07 million units in 2021, returning to mid-1980s levels, the SMMT said. The forecasts were produced for SMMT by AutoAnalysis, a consultancy. Prime Minister Theresa May has secured a delay to the Brexit deadline until Oct. 31, giving her more time to try to break an impasse in parliament over the terms of Britain's departure from the EU. Foreign minister Jeremy Hunt traveled to Japan earlier this month to try to persuade the Japanese government and Toyota, which has a big presence in Britain, that London was determined to avoid a no-deal Brexit. "Just a few years ago, industry was on track to produce 2 million cars by 2020 — a target now impossible with Britain's reputation as stable and attractive business environment undermined," SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said. "All parties must find a compromise urgently so we can set about repairing the damage and diverting energy and investment to the technological challenges that will define the future of the global industry." (Reporting by William Schomberg, editing by David Milliken)

Audi considers a rugged SUV — maybe on the Scout platform

Audi engineers are formulating plans to possibly build a “super saloon” luxury off-roader SUV in 2027, It would compete in a segment that now includes the Land Rover Defender and Mercedes-Benz G-Class, according to a report in BritainÂ’s Autocar. According to Audi designer Marc Lichte, quoted in the story, the platform for the new model could be borrowed from the Volkswagen GroupÂ’s recently announced sister brand, Scout Motors, which is currently developing electric-powered concepts and prototypes. While Audi has developed a PPE (Premium Platform Electric) architecture for its base EV lineup, that would be replaced in the planned model with ScoutÂ’s ladder chassis to provide the steep departure angles and ground clearance needed to negotiate tough terrain, as well as with the latest generation of AudiÂ’s Quattro four-wheel-drive technology, Autocar reports. Audi is well into development of its Activesphere project, an enticing design blend of coupe and hatchback. The Activesphere uses PPE, co-developed by Audi and Porsche, and will appear in a production Audi product by the end of this year. Audi says. Beyond that, “I think there is space" for a rugged SUV in AudiÂ’s passenger car lineup,  Lichte said. “There is potential because there are only two premium players” in this particular segment" (Mercedes-Benz and Land Rover) “and I think there is a space for a third one.” The upscale Defender was by far Land RoverÂ’s best-selling car last year, with 66,805 sold, and the G-Class set a new sales record the previous year with 41,174 moved worldwide. Audi obviously would like to capitalize on this popularity of the rugged 4x4 segment. The proposed competitor, said Lichte, “will not look like a G-Class and it will not look like a Defender, I can promise you. It will be something else."

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.