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EV battery prices to stop falling in 2020, Hyundai says

SEOUL — Hyundai believes electric vehicle battery prices will level off by 2020 due to supply constraints of key ingredients, ending years of sharp declines that have helped stimulate activity in the booming sector. Despite its cautious outlook, the South Korean carmaker and smaller affiliate Kia plan to release 38 green models using a variety of technologies by 2025, Hyundai Motor Senior Vice-President Lee Ki-sang said. "Not a single ingredient is going in a positive direction in terms of pricing," Lee, who oversees Hyundai's green car operations, said in remarks to reporters last week that were embargoed until Wednesday. "So far battery prices have been declining at a rapid pace, but the pace will moderate significantly or maintain the status quo by 2020." While rivals have announced ambitious plans for electric vehicles, some analysts say Hyundai has been late to the game. It plans to launch a long-range electric vehicle next year, well behind the likes of General Motors and Tesla. Demand for minerals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium used in electric car batteries is forecast to soar in the coming years as governments crack down on vehicle pollution and carmakers step up their investments in electric models. Batteries are the most expensive part of electric vehicles, and their affordability is key to the take-up of the technology. Lithium-ion battery cell prices fell about 60 percent in the five years to 2016 as larger-scale production made them cheaper to make. In September, Reuters reported that Volkswagen was moving to secure long-term supplies of cobalt for the group's electric vehicle plans, but its talks with cobalt producers in November ended without a supply deal. Lee said that although Hyundai saw the need to develop batteries in-house, it still relied on outside suppliers due to a lack of economies of scale to secure raw materials. It aimed to release vehicles powered by solid-state lithium batteries by about 2020, promising greater range and safety than existing lithium-ion units. Japanese rival Toyota also has announced a similar schedule for the development of vehicles powered by new, potentially revolutionary solid-state batteries. In addition to hybrids and battery-powered vehicles, Hyundai was "coordinating" with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles over hydrogen cars propelled by electricity generated from fuel cells, Lee added.

What do J.D. Power's quality ratings really measure?

Check these recently released J.D. Power Initial Quality Study (IQS) results. Do they raise any questions in your mind? Premium sports-car maker Porsche sits in first place for the third straight year, so are Porsches really the best-built cars in the U.S. market? Korean brands Kia and Hyundai are second and fourth, so are Korean vehicles suddenly better than their US, European, and Japanese competitors? Are workaday Chevrolets (seventh place) better than premium Buicks (11th), and Buicks better than luxury Cadillacs (21st), even though all are assembled in General Motors plants with the same processes and many shared parts? Are Japanese Acuras (26th) worse than German Volkswagens (24th)? And is "quality" really what it used to be (and what most perceive it to be), a measure of build excellence? Or has it evolved into much more a measure of likeability and ease of use? To properly analyze these widely watched results, we must first understand what IQS actually studies, and what the numerical scores really mean. First, as its name indicates, it's all about "initial" quality, measured by problems reported by new-vehicle owners in their first 90 days of ownership. If something breaks or falls off four months in, it doesn't count here. Second, the scores are problems per 100 vehicles, or PP100. So Power's 2015 IQS industry average of 112 PP100 translates to just 1.12 reported problems per vehicle. Third, no attempt is made to differentiate BIG problems from minor ones. Thus a transmission or engine failure counts the same as a squeaky glove box door, tricky phone pairing, inconsistent voice recognition, or anything else that annoys the owner. Traditionally, a high-quality vehicle is one that is well-bolted together. It doesn't leak, squeak, rattle, shed parts, show gaps between panels, or break down and leave you stranded. By this standard, there are very few poor-quality new vehicles in today's U.S. market. But what "quality" should not mean, is subjective likeability: ease of operation of the radio, climate controls, or seat adjusters, phone pairing, music downloading, sizes of touch pads on an infotainment screen, quickness of system response, or accuracy of voice-recognition. These are ergonomic "human factors" issues, not "quality" problems. Yet these kinds of pleasability issues are now dominating today's JDP "quality" ratings.

Top horsepower-per-dollar cars in 2017

Bang for the buck. That quasi-scientific statistic is bandied about by motor heads everywhere from classrooms to barrooms, though the truth of the matter is that it's exceedingly complex to measure. A fair performance-per-dollar index would include something like cross-referencing MSRP (Manufacturers Suggested Retail Price) with point-to-point times on a track or driving route, which is obviously hard to do comprehensively. But, for the sheer joy of talking about cars and playing with a big spreadsheet, there's always the horsepower-per-dollar index, which is more straightforward, albeit hilariously flawed. There are vagaries even with this simple formula, of course: MSRP for vehicles can change at a moment's notice, to say nothing of the bottom-line shifting that happens with local deals or showroom negotiation. For this list we're running with the straight MSRP wherever possible, and as recently reported as we can get it. All the vehicles on this list are 2017 models, and all trims are reported where the lowest price and differing power levels intersect. Some choices were made for personal preference and some for sanity, avoiding things like all 48 trim levels of the Ford Transit, all with the same horsepower). If this list were a simple top ten, or even a top fifty, you'd be bored to tears with all the red, white and blue that is represented. Following perfectly with conventional wisdom, American cars really do lead the world where hp/$ is concerned. So, for the sake of variety (and the sheer joy of seeing a minivan 'win' one round of this thing) I've sorted out some top five and bottom five lists for broad power categories. Let's dive in. Less Than 100 Horsepower Okay, okay, this is hardly a category we'll grant you. But we've often tried to click off all the sub-100-hp cars on sale in the US, and making this list gave us an excuse. It also illustrates that none of these smallish vehicles bring cheap horsepower to the table - for that you'll need a motorcycle. The segment-leading Chevy Spark (above) asks just over $139 for each hp, and that Smart Fortwo Electric Drive has hp on sale for about the same price as its very distant family cousin, the Mercedes-Benz SL65 AMG (insert your favorite Smart joke here... we know you want to).