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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

Aurora's Chris Urmson on autonomy — that's one way to avoid speeding tickets

Although this year's CES was full of companies announcing and exhibiting their real and conceivable self-driving car technologies, while actual self-driving cars from Aptiv-Lyft were giving conventioneers 400 rides around town, the biggest news came when Volkswagen Group — and recognize this is the entire group, not just the brand — and Hyundai announced that they'd both partnered with Aurora Innovation. While the VW announcement was vague — "The collaboration brings the two companies together to realize self-driving electric vehicles in cities as Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) fleets" — Hyundai provided a concrete goal: "a strategic partnership to bring self-driving Hyundai vehicles to market by 2021." You may not have heard of Aurora, which has been described in some news accounts as "mysterious." But Aurora Innovation has been in business since December 2016, and it is to autonomous technology what the 1927 Yankees are to baseball. The three leaders of the company are Chris Urmson, co-founder and CEO, who had previously been chief technology officer for Alphabet Self-Driving Cars; Sterling Anderson, co-founder and chief product officer, who had directed the development of Tesla Autopilot; and Drew Bagnell, co-founder and chief technical officer, who had been autonomy architect and perception lead at the Uber Advanced Technology Center. We had the chance to sit down with Chris Urmson after he appeared onstage at a Hyundai press conference. He shared his insights on Aurora's approach to automated driving. Initial deployment of self-driving cars? "We think the first place this technology comes to market in in the transportation services or ride-hailing applications, but that's for our partners to decide." (Ride-sharing is a strategy a lot of players in the field are shooting for, as round-the-clock use is one way for paying for what will initially be a technology too costly for private ownership.) Transporting goods or people? "I personally — and as a company — am more excited initially about moving people around. Urban mobility. That's where you see the largest social impact. And it provides better access to mobility for people." Can you create a car that doesn't crash? "It is a fundamentally hard problem because other operators on the road can behave erratically at any moment. For example, if you are in a two-lane, opposing-traffic road, if you want to be safe, you don't drive there, ever.

Chevy Traverse, Hyundai Santa Fe revealed; Buick Envista, BMW M4 CSL driven | Autoblog Podcast #790

In this episode of the Autoblog Podcast, Editor-in-Chief Greg Migliore is joined by Senior Editor John Beltz Snyder. After some banter, including the discussion of an excellent tomato sauce recipe, they get into car reviews. Greg has been driving the Mercedes-AMG GLE 53, while John has been testing the BMW M4 CSL and Buick's new Envista crossover. There's lots of interesting news this week. Chevy revealed the 2024 Traverse with new looks, a new engine and on off-road(ish) trim. Hyundai gave us a glimpse at the wild styling of the next Santa Fe. Dodge might bring back the Stealth nameplate as an SUV, and that has implications for the Durango as well. Ford, after repeatedly raising prices, has turned around and significantly discounted the F-150 Lightning across all trims. The first Tesla Cybertruck has rolled off the line as a pre-production prototype. Finally, we reach in to the mailbag and help a listener decide what to do with cars for himself and his kids in this week's Spend My Money segment. Send us your questions for the Mailbag and Spend My Money at: Podcast@Autoblog.com. Autoblog Podcast #790 Get The Podcast Apple Podcasts – Subscribe to the Autoblog Podcast in iTunes Spotify – Subscribe to the Autoblog Podcast on Spotify RSS – Add the Autoblog Podcast feed to your RSS aggregator MP3 – Download the MP3 directly Rundown Cars we're driving 2023 Mercedes-AMG GLE 53 2023 BMW M4 CSL 2024 Buick Envista 2024 Chevrolet Traverse gets rugged looks, new turbo engine, Z71 trim 2024 Hyundai Santa Fe revealed with a radical redesign Dodge Stealth coming with new platform, looks, and powertrains in a year (Bonus reading: check out Dodge Stealth listings) Ford F-150 Lightning gets significant price cut across the full range First Tesla Cybertruck pre-production prototype comes off the line Spend My Money Feedback Email – Podcast@Autoblog.com Review the show on Apple Podcasts Autoblog is now live on your smart speakers and voice assistants with the audio Autoblog Daily Digest. Say “Hey Google, play the news from Autoblog” or "Alexa, open Autoblog" to get your favorite car website in audio form every day. A narrator will take you through the biggest stories or break down one of our comprehensive test drives. Related video: Green Podcasts BMW Buick Chevrolet Dodge Ford GM Hyundai Mercedes-Benz Tesla Truck Crossover SUV Electric Future Vehicles Luxury Off-Road Vehicles Performance