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GM might lose 90-year U.S. sales crown over chip shortage

Automotive News editor Nick Bunkley tweeted on October 1 that according to AutoNews data, General Motors "has been the largest seller of vehicles in the U.S. every year since passing Ford in 1931." With automakers having turned in light car and truck sales data for the first three quarters of 2021, GM's 90-year-run might not reach 91. According to AN figures, Toyota was 80,401 vehicles ahead when the October workday started. Worse, GM is so far behind its historic pace that it might only sell enough light vehicles in the U.S. to match its numbers from 1958.  Meanwhile, the New York Times put a few more salient numbers to the pain GM and Toyota are enduring alongside the the rest of the industry. GM sold 33% fewer cars in Q3 2021 than it did in Q3 2019 during the dark days of the pandemic, 446,997 units this year as opposed to 665,192 last year. GM's Q3 2020 was only down 13% on Q3 2019. Over at Toyota, the bottom line showed a 1% gain in Q3 2021 compared to 2020, with 566,005 units moved off dealer lots. The finer numbers show two steps forward and one step back, though; Toyota's September sales were down 22% compared to last year.  GM remains optimistic about what's ahead, GM's president of North American operations telling the NYT, "We look forward to a more stable operating environment through the fall." We'd like to see that happen, but we don't know how it happens. The chip shortage said to have been the inciting incident for the current woes isn't over, and not only can no one agree when it will be over, the automakers, chip producers, and U.S. government still can't get on the same page about who needs what and when. Looking away from that for a second shows articles about "No End In Sight" for supply chain disruptions in early September, before China had to start working through power supply constraints, global supply chain workers started warning of a "system collapse," and roughly 500,000 containers sat waiting to be unloaded at Southern California ports — a record number seemingly broken every week. And back to chips, we're told just a few days ago the chip shortage is "worse than we thought."   For now, the NYT wrote that GM dealer inventory is down 40% from June to roughly 129,000 vehicles, and down 84% from the days when dealers would cumulatively keep about 800,000 light vehicles in stock. However, GM just announced it would have almost all of its U.S. facilities back online next week, although some would run at partial capacity.

GM exploring ways to raise half-ton Duramax diesel tow rating

Lots of truck owners cheered when GM announced fuel economy numbers for the 2020 Chevrolet Silverado with the 3.0-liter Duramax diesel inline-six. Even after Ram let loose its EPA mileage ratings for the 2020 Ram 1500 EcoDiesel, the Chevy oil-burner still took the trophy. The victory was years in the making, GM engineers spending an entire four-year development cycle refining the LM2 Duramax to increase mileage. The tradeoff, as well all know by now, is towing; the Duramax in half-ton duty pulls a maximum 9,300 pounds in the Silverado. Rivals across town can do more, the Ford F-150 PowerStroke rated at 11,500, the Ram 1500 EcoDiesel game to pull 12,560. GM engineer John Barta told Muscle Cars & Trucks that more hauling chops could be on the way, explaining, "We’re actually looking at upgrading some of the materials around (the engine bay) to see if we can maybe raise our tow rating." Engine bay materials are at issue due to thermal complexities underhood. John Barta, GM's assistant chief engineer of diesel engine controls, said the Duramax's inline-six configuration allowed engineers to get emissions hardware like the combined selective catalytic reduction, diesel oxidation catalysts, and diesel particulate filter unit closer to the engine, where it heats up quicker, getting emissions down quicker. But that filter puts another heat source in those confines, enforcing a cap on the tow rating to keep the engine and other systems from overheating. "If you look under the hood," he said, "youÂ’ll see a significant amount of silver ‘moon tapeÂ’ around to make sure things arenÂ’t getting overheatedÂ… if we were to go up in higher towing, which we can, we start impacting the possibility of deteriorating some of the components.” There isn't much space for more grille, so swapping for a better grade of "moon tape" or a different kind of material could reduce engine bay heat, extracting a higher tow rating in the process.  It's important to note a point Barta's been making for months about the Duramax figures, though. "Even though itÂ’s nice to brag about big numbers, in reality, light duty customers are not towing that large with their trucks," and, "We do know that (95 percent) of our light duty customers donÂ’t tow over 9,000 pounds." On our First Drive of the 2020 Silverado diesel we called out the tow rating, but emphasized that the Chevy and GMC have more important challenges to overcome.

GM raises 2023 guidance on strong sales, higher profits

General Motors beat first-quarter profit estimates and raised its full-year earnings and cash-flow guidance after vehicle demand at the start of the year surpassed expectations. Its shares rose in premarket trading. GM made $2.21 a share in adjusted profit in the first quarter, compared to a consensus forecast of $1.72 a share. Revenue rose 11% to $39.99 billion, it said Tuesday, which was more than the $39.24 billion analysts expected. The stronger results stem from rising sales in the US, even in the face of higher interest rates and inflation. GM executives said demand was strong enough to revise 2023 guidance upward, boosting profit estimates for the year by $500 million to between $11 billion and $13 billion. “We did it with strong production and inventory discipline and consistent pricing,” GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said on a call with journalists. “All in all, weÂ’re feeling confident about 2023.” The Detroit automaker raised per-share full-year guidance to between $6.35 and $7.35, up from $6 to $7 a share, and said free cash flow would also increase by $500 million to a range of $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion.  GMÂ’s shares pared a gain of as much as 4.4% before the start of regular trading Tuesday, rising 3.5% to $35.50 as of 6:55 a.m. in New York. The stock was up 1.9% for the year as of the close on Monday.  North American Strength The automakerÂ’s sales were particularly strong in North America, where first-quarter earnings rose before interest and taxes rose to $3.6 billion. Vehicle sales rose 18% to 707,000 in the region. Jacobson said the company originally expected to sell 15 million vehicles in the US this year, slightly less than the 15.5 million annualized rate automakers foresaw in the first quarter. North American demand was enough to offset a weak performance in China, GMÂ’s second-largest market. The automaker continues to struggle in the country, where its vehicle sales fell 25% to 462,000 vehicles in the quarter. Profits from its joint ventures in the market slumped 65% to $83 million.  The market has struggled overall in the wake of Covid-19 restrictions and foreign automakers have had to overcome a growing preference for Chinese brands by competing on price, squeezing profit margins. The situation in China probably wonÂ’t significantly improve until the second half of the year, according to Jacobson. GM remains on target to sell 150,000 electric vehicles this year, the CFO said.