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Coronavirus shakes up America's truck market: GM outselling Ford and Ram

FCA, Ford and General Motors joined the rest of the U.S. auto industry in taking heavy volume hits due to coronavirus-related shortages of both cars and customers. The saying goes that a rising tide lifts all boats; it stands to reason, then, that a falling one would have the opposite effect.  However, as we learned Thursday, the automotive market can behave in unpredictable ways. While the F-Series remained the best-selling nameplate in Q1, GM's full-size trucks are now outselling Ford's again for the first time in years, and with this upward thrust from the General, FCA's Ram was unceremoniously booted out of a hard-earned second place.  While late-March sales declines hit just about every major automaker in one way or another, the model-by-model results weren't nearly so uniform. And because the market tends to be a zero-sum game, for every winner, there generally has to be a loser.  In this case, that winner was GM, and its rise had to come at the expense of another automaker, in this case, Ford. F-Series sales dropped 13.1 percent in the first quarter of 2020, while sales of GM's full-sized Silverado and Sierra surged nearly 28% in the same period. FCA's Ram lineup managed a steady-as-she-goes 7% increase. All-in, GM finished the quarter with 197,743 full-size trucks sold to Ford's 186,562. Here's the full breakdown: Ford F-Series: 186,562  Chevrolet Silverado*: 144,734 Ram P/U: 128,805 GMC Sierra: 53,009 *includes 1,036 Medium Duty sales Things are a but murkier in the midsize segment, where the Chevy Colorado slipped 36% to just 21,430 units sold — just a few hundred better than the slow-selling Ford Ranger's Q1 numbers. The GMC Canyon experienced an almost identical slide, finishing the quarter with just 4,483 units sold. For perspective, Jeep sold more than 15,000 Gladiators and Toyota's midsize Tacoma slipped less than 8%, finishing the quarter with nearly 54,000 sales.  We suspect this discrepancy in full- and mid-size truck sales comes from shifting incentives. Ford, GM and FCA would like to keep selling bigger trucks because there's far more profit margin built into their list prices. Even with tens of thousands of dollars in manufacturer money on the hood, big trucks still make money.  Since these automakers report quarterly, we won't get another good look at these numbers until July, but if you thought that 2019 represented the new normal for U.S. auto sales, well, think again.

Black Friday could power record November sales

Black Friday allows some shoppers to line up in the wee hours for doorbuster deals on laptops and TVs, but the day after Thanksgiving could mean huge profits for automakers this year, too. Multiple industry analysts predict record growth for the industry for November, and the upcoming incentives could help those numbers. TrueCar predicts that Black Friday incentives could provide a major boost, and it estimates a November sales jump of 3.9 percent from last year to a record for the month at over 1.35 million vehicles. As examples of potential deals, Chevrolet, Buick, and GMC plan to offer up to 20 percent off some models, and FCA US has no-interest financing for up to 75 months from its brands. "Consumers are excited about Black Friday promotions and these month-long events appear to be resonating with car buyers." Eric Lyman, TrueCar's vice president of industry insights, said in the report. Black Friday only recently became a big day for auto sales, according to an analysis from Edmunds. Last year, Thanksgiving weekend posted double the sales as any other weekend in the month. The company predicts a sales volume of over 1.33 million vehicles for November. If that happens, it would be the beat the previous record of 1.32 million sales for the same month in 2001. Some forecasts temper the gains for November but only slightly. Kelley Blue Book predicts flat year-over-year sales at 1.3 million vehicles, but that's largely because there are two fewer sales days in 2015 versus in 2014. "Black Friday deals on vehicles have grown in popularity in recent years, and should be a big contributor to this month's sales results," said analyst Tim Fleming in the study. The combined research from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive have the lowest November prediction among this group at just over 1.279 million sales for the month versus 1.299 million in 2014. However, once the researchers adjust the figures for the two fewer selling days, 2015 could actually be seven percent higher than last year. TrueCar Finds New Auto Sales in November to Reach Monthly Record Black Friday promotions bolster sales gains; industrywide incentives up 6% from last year November 24, 2015 12:11 PM Eastern Standard Time SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,352,500 units in November, a 3.9 percent increase from a year ago and the highest ever for the month.

U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2018 rise slightly to 17.27 million [UPDATE]

DETROIT — Sales of new vehicles in the U.S. rose slightly in 2018, defying predictions and highlighting a strong economy. Automakers reported an increase of 0.3 percent over a year ago to 17.27 million vehicles. The increase came despite rising interest rates, a volatile stock market, and rising car and truck prices that pushed some buyers out of the new-vehicle market. Industry analysts and automakers said strong economic fundamentals pushed up sales and should keep them near historic highs in 2019. "Economic conditions in the U.S. are favorable and should continue to be supportive of vehicle sales at or around their current run rate," Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris said after the company and other automakers announced their sales numbers Thursday. That auto sales remain near the 2016 record of 17.55 million is a testimonial to the strength of the economy, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The job market, he said, has created new employment, and wage growth has accelerated. "That's fundamental to selling anything," he said. "If there are lots of jobs and people are getting bigger paychecks, they will buy more." The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, a 49-year low. The economy is thought to have grown close to 3 percent last year, its best performance in more than a decade. Consumers, the main driver of the economy, are spending freely. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate four times in 2018 but is only expected to raise it twice this year. Auto sales also were helped by low gasoline prices and rising home values, Zandi said. It all means that people are likely to keep buying new vehicles this year even as they grow more expensive. The Edmunds.com auto-pricing site estimates that the average new vehicle price hit a record $35,957 in December, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. It will be harder for automakers to keep the sales pace above 17 million because they have been enticing buyers for several years now with low-interest financing and other incentives, Zandi said. He predicts more deals in the coming year as job growth slows and credit tightens for higher-risk buyers. Edmunds, which provides content, including automotive tips and reviews, for distribution by The Associated Press, predicts that sales will drop this year to 16.9 million.