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Trucks, SUVs drive U.S. October new vehicle sales

DETROIT — Major automakers posted mixed U.S. new vehicle sales in October on Wednesday, though America's love affair with high-margin pickup trucks and SUVs remained in full bloom as larger, pricier vehicles fared better than passenger cars. Auto industry publication WardsAuto put the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales in October at a robust level of 18 million units. But after a long boom cycle, carmakers are still ill-prepared for the slight decline in sales anticipated for full-year 2017 and have taken too few steps to trim production, said Doug Mehl, a partner in consultancy A.T. Kearney's automotive practice. "When you make a new vehicle, you have volume assumptions tagged to it, and who wants to be the guy who says, 'I'm going to make less of this really cool model'?" Mehl said. "But eventually the market is the reality, and it's going to force companies one way or other here." General Motors GM reported a sales drop of 2.2 percent for the month, with consumer sales down 6.6 percent. But sales of high-margin pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers all rose. GM also cut its inventory of unsold vehicles — a source of concern for the market — slightly. The automaker has worked to reduce its volume of excess inventory, including through significant production shutdowns in the third quarter. GM had said its inventory would rise in October. "We are heading into the fourth quarter with good momentum, thanks to a strong U.S. economy and very strong pickup and crossover sales," said Kurt McNeil, GM vice president for U.S. sales operations. GM slightly reduced consumer discounts as a percentage of average transaction prices to 13.5 percent, from 13.7 percent in the third quarter. Industry experts believe consumer discounts above 10 percent of the average transaction price are unhealthy as they erode resale values and are unsustainable in the long term. Consultants J.D. Power and LMC said last week that based on preliminary October sales numbers, discounts have exceeded 10 percent in 15 of the past 16 months. Ford The U.S. auto industry posted record sales of 17.55 million vehicles in 2016. New sales received a strong boost in September as consumers replaced vehicles damaged in southeast Texas by Hurricane Harvey the previous month. Full-year 2017 sales are expected to be slightly lower than 2016.

Ford's Farley will challenge dealers to cut EV cost to customers by $2,000

DETROIT — Ford Motor Co Chief Executive Jim Farley will go to Las Vegas next week to roll the dice on a strategy to convince dealers to cut as much as $2,000 from the cost of delivering an electric vehicle to a customer. Ford has told dealers that one key topic for the meetings will be a discussion of new agreements that would govern how dealers sell Ford's expanding lineup of electric vehicles. Farley told analysts in July that Ford needs to cut $2,000 a vehicle out of selling and distribution costs to be competitive with Tesla Inc and other electric vehicle startups that sell directly to consumers without franchised dealers. About a third of those savings could come from what Farley called a "low inventory model," where customers order a vehicle and Ford ships it to the customer, rather than stocking vehicles on dealer lots for weeks or months. "We think that's about -- worth maybe $600, $700 in our system," Farley told analysts. Tesla can also adjust prices rapidly on its website, and keep most of the gain from a price increase. Ford declined to comment other than to say “we are excited to meet next week with our North America dealers to grow and win together.” Dealers said they expect Ford to outline minimum investments for charging stations and other equipment to support electric vehicle customers. A key question will be how quickly dealers will be required to install chargers, which dealers said can cost as much as $500,000. "The manufacturers so far have let us scale into it and I think Ford will hopefully do the same thing. You just can't say, 'Listen, we're going to sell 2 million electric cars five years from now and we expect you to put in five superchargers,'" said Rhett Ricart, owner of Ricart Ford, a large dealership in Columbus, Ohio. Tesla's success at selling electric vehicles without franchised dealers is putting pressure on all established automakers to overhaul their retail networks. A shift by Ford to a Tesla-style build to order system could come with caps on the profit margins dealers can earn on a new vehicle sale, some dealers said. "I see dealer margins still being very competitive, but they are going to shift," Farley said in July. Ford intends to put more emphasis on selling products and services after the initial vehicle sale, he said. Dealers said state franchise laws could give dealers leverage to resist efforts by Ford to set fixed prices or fixed fees for delivering electric vehicles.

Ford finds flex-fuel engine design plays big role in emissions output

How bad is ethanol for your engine? There's been a lot of debate on this issue as the US considers upping the biofuel content in the national gasoline supply from 10 percent (E10) to 15 percent (E15). The ethanol industry and some scientists say higher ethanol blends show no "meaningful differences" in new engines while the oil industry says ethanol creates health risks. Researchers working at the Ford Research and Innovation Center decided to take a closer look at how a wide range of gas-ethanol blends - E0, E10, E20, E30, E40, E55 and E80 - affected the emissions coming out of a flex-fuel 2006 Mercury Grand Marquis. To see the full report, printed in the journal Environmental Science & Technology, requires payment, but there is an abstract and Green Car Congress has some more details. The gist is that, "with increasing ethanol content in the fuel, the tailpipe emissions of ethanol, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, methane, and ammonia increased." At least NOx and NMHC emissions decreased. The researchers say that the effects are due to the fuel and "are expected for all FFVs," but that the way that a manufacturer calibrates the engine will affect NOx, THC, and NMOG emissions. It's this last bit that's important, since the researchers found, "Higher ethanol content in gasoline affects several fundamental fuel properties that can impact emissions. ... These changes can have positive or negative effects that can depend on engine design, hardware, and control strategy. In addition to direct emissions impacts, higher ethanol content fuel can also provide more efficient combustion and overall engine operation under part-load conditions and under knock-limited higher-load conditions." So, as we head towards more ethanol in our fuel supply (maybe), manufacturers are going to need to learn how to burn it most efficiently.