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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Is it time for American carmakers to give up on dual-clutch transmissions? [w/poll]

Last week, in the midst of Detroit's first days seeking relief in Chapter 9 of the bankruptcy code, Automotive News contributor Larry P. Vellequette penned an editorial suggesting that American car companies raise the white flag on dual clutch transmissions and give up on trying to persuade Americans to buy cars fitted with them. Why? Because, Vellequette says, like CVT transmissions, they "just don't sound right or feel right to American drivers." (Note: In the article, it's not clear if Vellequette is arguing against wet-clutch and dry-clutch DCTs or just dry-clutch DCTs, which is what Ford and Chrysler use.) The article goes on to state that Ford and Chrysler have experimented with DCTs and that both consumers and the automotive press haven't exactly given them glowing reviews, despite their quicker shifts and increased fuel efficiency potential compared to torque-converter automatic transmissions.
Autoblog staffers who weighed in on the relevance of DCTs in American cars generally disagreed with the blanket nature of Vellequette's statement that they don't sound or feel right, but admit that their lack of refinement compared to traditional automatics can be an issue for consumers. That's particularly true in workaday cars like the Ford Focus and Dodge Dart, both of which have come in for criticism in reviews and owner surveys. From where we sit, the higher-performance orientation of such transmissions doesn't always meld as well with the marching orders of everyday commuters (particularly if drivers haven't been educated as to the transmission's benefits and tradeoffs), and in models not fitted with paddle shifters, it's particularly hard for drivers to use a DCT to its best advantage.
Finally, we also note that DCT tuning is very much an evolving science. For instance, Autoblog editors who objected to dual-clutch tuning in the Dart have more recently found the technology agreeable in the Fiat 500L. Practice makes perfect - or at least more acceptable.

Recharge Wrap-up: Atieva making EV with former Tesla talent, Holland lowers PHEV incentives

A reduction of tax incentives on company cars in Holland is expected to put the brakes on plug-in hybrid sales. Cars are taxed at an average of 25 percent, with plug-in hybrids taxed at just seven or 14 percent, depending on emissions. Taxes on PHEV company cars will increase to 14 and 21 percent. With company car leases making up a third of vehicle sales in 2014, the uptake on PHEVs "will likely go back to regular volumes," according to Volvo's Christiaan Krouwel. It could be a boon for battery electric cars, as their tax rate will remain at four percent for company cars. Read more at Automotive News Europe. Ford is testing cylinder deactivation in its 1.0-liter EcoBoost engine. On-road prototype testing has shown improvements in fuel economy of as much as six percent. Ford engineers developed a system using a new dual mass flywheel, pendulum absorber, and tuned clutch disc to allow cylinder deactivation under a wider range of speed and engine loads with less NVH. "The highest priority in the development of new combustion engines for automotive applications is the ongoing reduction of fuel consumption," says Ford's Andreas Schamel, presenting Ford's findings to the Vienna Motor Symposium. Read more at Green Car Congress or in the press release from Ford. Atieva is building an EV with the help of numerous former Tesla employees. The Silicon Valley-based startup was founded in 2007 by a former Tesla vice president, and its roster includes 12 other former Tesla employees. Already well funded, Atieva is now looking to fill its ranks with more talent, with 32 engineering positions, two recruiter positions and other job openings posted at its website. As for the EV it is working on, Atieva says it is "redefining what a car can be, by building an iconic new vehicle from the ground up." Read more at Charged EVs. Testing shows that Joule ethanol, made from recycled CO2, meets standards for use in the US and Europe. In partnership with Audi, Joule has been working toward making its recycled CO2 fuels ready for commercialization. "We are pleased to achieve another critical step towards our planned near-term delivery of fuel-grade ethanol from recycled CO2," says Joule President and CEO Serge Tchuruk. "Using waste CO2 as a feedstock, our technology has the two-fold advantage of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and producing cost-competitive, drop-in fuels." Joule will use these test results to get government approval for the use of its ethanol in highway fuel.