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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Hybrid, electric campers take center stage at Germany's motorhome trade show

Car companies from all over the automotive spectrum will make international headlines next week by presenting hybrid and electric cars at the biennial Frankfurt auto show. Camper van and motorhome manufacturers got a head start on the rest of the industry by presenting their green solutions at the Dusseldorf Caravan Salon. The show confirms electrification is present in the leisure segment, too. German camper experts Dethleffs introduced a plug-in hybrid, pop-top camper based on the full-size Ford Transit van. Called Globevan e.Hybrid, it relies on a 126-horsepower drivetrain built around a turbocharged, 1.0-liter EcoBoost three-cylinder engine. The system can power the camper on electricity alone for up to 31 miles. Adventurers who leave with a full tank and a full charge enjoy 310 miles of driving range, which is an impressive figure for the camper van segment. Charging the battery pack takes 5.5 hours when using a regular household outlet, according to the manufacturer, or three hours when hooking it up to a quick-charging station. Globevan production is tentatively scheduled to begin in 2020, and pricing starts at 75,000 euros, a sum that represents approximately $83,000. EFA-S took electrification a step further. Starting with a Fiat Ducato, a van known as the Ram Promaster in the United States, it yanked out the turbodiesel engine and replaced it with a 140-kilowatt electric motor fed by an 86-kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery pack. The company pegs the camper's driving range at up to 186 miles, a relatively low figure which hardly reflects how most vacationers use their van. The pack takes four hours to charge, Auto Motor und Sport learned. While sustainable, zero-emissions tourism is difficult to argue against, the Ducato-based camper suffers from two serious setbacks. First, the battery pack makes it so heavy that it can't be driven with a regular license. It's considered a heavy commercial vehicle. Second, its 160,000-euro (about $177,000) price tag makes it twice as expensive as a diesel-burning model, and puts it in the same price range as much bigger, more powerful, and more luxurious models. EFA-S will nonetheless move forward with production in 2020, though it plans to build no more than 30 units. The caravan Salon is not only about hybrids and electric cars, however.

What next for Alan Mulally?

Alan Mulally has emerged as a hero when it comes to American manufacturing. He came to Ford in 2006 after serving as head of Boeing's commercial aircraft division, streamlined operations, sold off the costly elements of its Premier Automotive Group and saved Ford from having to be bailed out by the federal government like its cross-town rivals Chrysler and General Motors did. But as we reported mere days ago, he's widely expected to step down from the chief executive's office at Ford shortly.
So what's next for one of the most successful executives in the business? Hard to say, but don't expect Mulally to disappear into retirement. Though he didn't ultimately take the top job at Microsoft, industry insiders expect to see him in another influential position - likely as a board director or even chairman of another company. (We say "another company" and not Ford because while Bill Ford may have stepped aside as CEO to bring Mulally on board in the first place, we don't see him giving up his chairmanship of the board also.)
Mulally has likely already lined up his next move, and could either announce what that move will be as soon as Ford confirms Mark Fields as his successor, or could wait awhile. Insiders speculate that he could leverage his transportation and aerospace experience into a position at General Electric or a major airline, his manufacturing expertise to benefit a company like Procter & Gamble or his management skills at a consultancy firm.