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Lincoln Nautilus, Ford Edge latest prediction: Production ends in July 2024

In June, Auto Forecast Solutions put out a report compiled by its vice president of global forecasting, Sam Fiorani. One item in the report covered how Fiorani had heard from "multiple sources" that Ford shut down the program to replace the Edge crossover in 2023. Assuming this came to pass, with the Lincoln Nautilus based on the Edge, the inference is that the Nautilus would retire at or around the same time. Ford's response to media queries about the report was either "No comment" or PR-speak deflection. Lincoln's statement on the matter to Motor1, a crafty non-answer, was, "The Nautilus plays and will continue to play an important role in Lincoln’s growing SUV portfolio which includes the Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. Lincoln is investing in growth segments like SUVs and we have no plans to exit the segment." It's possible Lincoln has no plans to leave the segment, but the Nautilus might, according to a fresh, unsourced report in Ford Authority. The site claims the Nautilus will end production at the Oakville Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada, in July 2024.  Again, we can't know how much, if any of this, is true. But we're zeroing in on a timeline for the potential end of the Edge and Nautilus in the U.S. Those are the only two products Oakville currently builds, and when the Canadian union Unifor asked Ford about the reports in June, Ford couldn't offer union reps anything concrete or reassuring. The Detroit News quoted Unifor chief Jerry Dias as saying of the automaker, "There is no question, they are going through a major evaluation of their portfolio, based on a whole host of things."   We could be seeing one of the earlier theories for Edge's potential demise coming true. Some analysts suspect Ford could be pruning its crossover lineup because it has too many similarly-sized offerings at the moment, the Edge hasn't met its sales targets in Europe, and more compact crossovers are on the way that could bring better street cred if they're associated with the Bronco or Bronco Sport. Unifor and Ford are now in negotiations over a new contract, so it's possible we'll get more clarity in the next month or so about Ford's plans and what will come of Oakville and its roughly 4,000 workers. If Ford walks away from the assembly plant, it will only have two engine plants left in Canada, and no vehicle assembly north of the border for the first time in about a century.

United States drivers buying fewer Mexican-made cars

Crossovers and pickup trucks are not only growing in market share, they're also more profitable than cars. A crossover on the same platform as a sedan retails for thousands more, despite similar components. It's one of the reasons we've seen automakers rapidly shifting production of their sedans and hatchbacks to Mexico, where cheap labor preserves the thin profit margins on these inexpensive vehicles. But as the market continues to shift in the United States, Mexico is getting burned by its lack of product diversity. The country's auto exports, which are heavy on cars, suffered a 16-percent drop last month, Automotive News reports. In total, year-over-year exports fell from 233,515 to 197,020 last month, while year-to-date exports are down by 7.4 percent, from 922,029 to 854,118. The number one culprit? America – which usually accounts for 75 percent of Mexico's exports – and its appetite for crossovers and pickup trucks bolstered by cheap gas prices. While Mexico does build some light truck models – AN specifically calls out the Ram 2500, Honda HR-V, GMC Sierra, and Toyota Tacoma as export leaders – the vast majority of vehicles rolling out of its factories are sedans and hatchbacks. In fact, the three biggest drops in Mexican exports came from companies whose south of the border factories only build cars – Ford (Fusion/Lincoln MKZ and Fiesta), Mazda (Mazda3), and Volkswagen (Golf and Jetta). Mexican Automotive Industry Association President Eduardo Solis told AN the export shortfall will likely be sorted out sooner rather than later, thanks to a pair of new factories – a Kia car factory and an Audi SUV plant – that are coming online by year's end. The two facilities will add around 100,000 vehicles to the country's export totals, which Solis said should leave the industry on the verge of breaking another export record in 2016. But how sustainable will these record-breaking years be? Slapping an "Hecho en Mexico" sticker on a new German SUV won't be enough to change the fact that Mexico's product mix is tilted too heavily towards body styles that are not growing in volume. Mexico's record-breaking export years probably aren't at an end, but we'd argue they're certainly under threat. News Source: Automotive News - sub. req.Image Credit: Omar Torres / AFP / Getty Images Plants/Manufacturing Ford GMC Honda Mazda RAM Volkswagen Truck Crossover SUV Mexico

Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us