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For thousands of US auto workers, the downturn is already here

LORDSTOWN, Ohio - Wall Street is fretting that the auto industry is heading for a downturn, but for thousands of workers at General Motors factories in the United States, the hard times are already here. Matt Streb, 36, was one of 1,200 workers laid off on Jan. 20 - inauguration day for President Donald Trump - when GM canceled the third shift at its Lordstown small-car factory here. Sales of the Chevrolet Cruze sedan, the only vehicle the plant makes, have nosedived as consumers switch to SUVs and pickup trucks. Streb is looking for another job, but employers are wary because they assume he will quit whenever GM calls him back. "I get it," said Streb, who has a degree in communications, "but it's frustrating." Layoffs at Lordstown and other auto plants point to a broader challenge for the economy in Midwestern manufacturing states and for the Trump administration. "This is about economics, not what Trump says. Even if Trump went out and bought 10,000 Cruzes a month, he wouldn't get the third shift back here." The auto industry's boom from 2010 through last year was a major driver for manufacturing job creation. The fading of that boom threatens prospects for US industrial output and job creation that were central to Trump's victory in Ohio and other manufacturing states. "This is about economics, not what Trump says," said Robert Morales, president of United Auto Workers (UAW) union Local 1714, which represents workers at GM's stamping plant at Lordstown. "Even if Trump went out and bought 10,000 Cruzes a month, he wouldn't get the third shift back here." Last week the Federal Reserve said factory output fell 0.4 percent in May, the second decline in three months, due partly to a 2 percent drop in motor vehicles and parts production. Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has compiled data from government sources that show the auto industry punching higher than its weight in job creation in recent years - accounting for between 60 percent and 80 percent of all US manufacturing jobs added in 2015 and 2016. In the first quarter of this year, the auto industry accounted for less than 2 percent of the 45,000 manufacturing jobs created. "There's no argument with the idea that auto has been pulling the manufacturing sled up the mountain for the last three or four years," Muro said.

Ford moving medium-duty F-Series production from Mexico to Ohio

A few more Ford trucks will be built in the US in the near future with news that production of the F-650 and F-750 medium-duty trucks will move from Mexico to Ford's Ohio Assembly Plant in Avon Lake, OH. Ford hasn't confirmed a precise timeline for the move, but The Detroit News claims the Blue Oval will make the shift later this year or in early 2015.
As Ford spokesperson Mike Levine reminded us, back in 2011, Ford announced in an investor release that it would shift production "after the [Ohio] plant stops current production of the Ford E-Series vans." According to that release, the Ohio factory will also receive $128 million in upgrades to build the new trucks, plus the F53 motorhome chassis and F59 commercial chassis.

Ford could make as much as $13k profit for every F-150

The Ford F-Series is a perennial member of the US bestseller list with the title in its brawny grasp for over 30 years, and the truck ranks as the top-selling model over $50,000 in the country. It shouldn't come as a shock then that the model is a major buttress of Ford's bottom line. Have you ever wondered just how vital the trucks are to the Blue Oval's health, though? Some math based on recent figures suggests they might be even more important than you think. Automotive News recently did the calculation and came up with that each F-150 sold contributed about $13,333 to the company's profits. That number was based on a statement from Ford CFO Bob Shanks that the automaker could have made another $1 billion in North America for the first quarter with a repeat of last year's sales of the F-150 and Edge, with 60,000 more trucks and 15,000 additional crossovers. If those 75,000 missing vehicles cost the company $1 billion, then they averaged $13,333 each. Also, the F-150 makes up 80 percent of the lost sales, so you might even conclude that each pickup brings even more money into Ford. Automotive News also extrapolates further. Based on a forecast of 800,000 F-Series sales this year, that's about $10.7 billion going into Ford's coffers. Obviously, these figures are far from exact since they are based on a single statement from the automaker's CFO. Autoblog reached out to Ford to see if the numbers were accurate, but the Blue Oval wouldn't comment on vehicle profitability. However, AutoPacific analyst Dave Sullivan suggests these figures could be on the right track, if a bit high. "The rough guess has been $10,000. Obviously that is a little different for a $60k truck vs a regular cab 4x2 work truck, but $10,000 is the ball park that is used," he said to Autoblog. If you ever wonder why Ford might be loathe to bring the smaller Ranger back to the US when it's available elsewhere, these huge profits are likely part of the answer. The Blue Oval has little reason to cut into the sales of a model that makes the brand billions. Related Video: