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FCA and Peugeot reportedly agree on merger

Citing a Wall Street Journal report, the Detroit Free Press says "Fiat Chrysler and PSA Groupe have agreed to merge." The Journal reported on talks between the two car companies only yesterday. It's said that Peugeot's board met yesterday to approve the deal, FCA's board met today, and an announcement could come as soon as tomorrow, Thursday. Both automakers have released statements, but neither company has released any information beyond admitting to ongoing talks. If the merger happens, the combined entity would become the world's fourth-largest carmaker with a $50 billion valuation, slotting in behind Toyota, the Volkswagen Group, and the Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance. Among the merger options possible, "an all-stock merger of equals" is the one analysts and Moody's seem to give the best grade. The reported merger would come about four months after FCA walked away from merger talks with Renault. FCA said the French government scuppered those talks over the role of Nissan in a reformed entity, but there were also brewing issues with French unions, and ongoing turmoil among Renault and Nissan leadership thanks to continuing fallout from ex-CEO Carlos Ghosn's arrest last year. FCA makes most of its revenue in the U.S. and rules Italy, while Peugeot is the second-best-selling automaker in Europe with its own brand in France and Opel in Germany. The two companies already have a partnership in Europe making vans, one that FCA CEO Mike Manley has spoken highly of. Among the list of obvious benefits in a potential merger, FCA would get access to Peugeot's small, modern platforms, $10.2 billion in cash, and electrified and hybrid architecture developments, the latter especially important to FCA as those are fields where it lags. Peugeot would get much easier access to the U.S. market, and the money-printing brands Jeep and Ram. A merged carmaker would have combined sales of nearly 9 million a year, based on 2018 results. By comparison, both Volkswagen and Toyota sell over 10 million cars a year, while the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance almost 11 million. Peugeot CEO Carlos Tavares has proved he knows how to do turnarounds and mergers. After leaving a position as Carlos Ghosn's right-hand man in 2012, Tavares took over Peugeot in 2014, navigated a bailout from the French government and China's Dongfeng Motors in 2015, and turned PSA into a regional powerhouse.

Fiat Chrysler dumped 40,000 unordered vehicles on dealers

In a move that echoes recent history, Fiat Chrysler has been making more cars and trucks than dealers in the U.S. are willing to accept, with Bloomberg reporting that at one point the automaker had built up a glut of around 40,000 unordered vehicles. That’s led some dealers to accuse FCA of reviving the dreaded “sales bank” accounting practice of obscuring inventory to improve the balance sheet. The company reportedly began building up its inventory of unordered cars this summer despite an industrywide slowdown in sales and an eagerness by some dealers to thin their inventories because rising interest rates are making it more expensive to hold unsold cars. The inventory build-up also coincided with Fiat ChryslerÂ’s efforts to find a merger partner, first with Renault, which fell through, then last monthÂ’s announcement that it will merge with FranceÂ’s PSA Group. FCA denies any such scheme and tells Bloomberg the rising inventory is down to a new predictive analytics system designed to better square supply with demand from dealers that is helping the company save money and narrow the numbers of unsold vehicles. The company recently agreed to pay a $40 million civil penalty to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to settle a complaint that it paid dealers to report fake sales figures over a span of five years. While no one is suggesting that FCA is in dire financial straits — the company saw higher than expected earnings in the third quarter and record profits in North America — the practice has strong historical precedent by Chrysler, which built up bloated inventories in the run-up to its two federal bailouts, in 1980 and 2009. It was also common at GM and Ford during the 2000s, when all three Detroit automakers struggled with excess manufacturing capacity and plummeting sales in the lead-up to the Great Recession. Back in 2012, CFO Magazine wrote about a report that explained automakersÂ’ rationale for the practice and how it works: Say fixed costs for a given factory are $100, and that the factory can make 50 cars. Consumers, however, demand only 10. Under absorption costing, if the company makes all 50 cars, its cost-per-car is $2. If it makes only up to demand, or 10 cars, the cost-per-car is $10. Although each car adds variable costs for steel and other parts, if those costs are low, the company still has an incentive to make more cars to keep the cost-per-car down.

Fiat-Chrysler alliance in jeopardy due to Pentastar's IPO filing?

The four-year relationship between Fiat and Chrysler has thus far been beneficial for both automakers, but it has also proven to be a complicated battle between Sergio Marchionne and the United Auto Workers - the latter controlling the remaining 41.5 percent of Chrysler. With the recent filing for a US IPO, it looks like Marchionne and the UAW appear to be playing a billion-dollar game of chicken, with both sides far apart on how much the union's shares are worth. If it comes down to Chrysler's remaining stake being publicly traded, it could act to drive a wedge between the two companies.
According to Bloomberg, Fiat's chairman John Elkann says "if the IPO will take place, there will be two companies, and that's different than having a single one." Now, we're not great at math, but this sounds like the complete opposite of the full merger that Marchionne has been pushing for since taking the helm at Chrysler. Bloomberg notes that the UAW's shares should be worth around $5.6 billion, but Fiat could end up paying as little as $4.9 billion for Fiat to gain full control of Chrysler. A story by The Detroit News points out that Marchionne's "alleged low-balling" is just the latest hurdle the Auburn Hills-based automaker must overcome as its ownership is being fought over for the fourth time in 15 years.